Value-focused thinking: A path to creative decision making, Keeney, R. L., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992, ISBN 0-674-93197-1

1993 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon French
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Harvard University ◽  
Value Focused Thinking

A Value Focused Thinking Approach to Decommissioning Decision Making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Tung
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Stakeholder Values ◽  
A Value ◽  
Value Focused Thinking ◽  
Science Theory ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Stakeholder Acceptance

Abstract Values are what stakeholders regard to be important to decisions (Kruglanski & Higgins 2007). How stakeholder prioritize, rank, balance, and trade-off values can have significant influence on their reasoning and evaluation of decommissioning outcomes and decisions. Stakeholder values can vary depending on various factors including religious beliefs, personal interests, and past experiences (Lechner et al., 2017). Value-focused thinking is a decision science theory developed by Keeney (1992) which builds upon the concept of varying stakeholder values. Keeney (1992) argues that the best decision is one that best reflects the actual values of stakeholders. which suggests that the acceptability of decommissioning decisions (full removal, partial removal, leave in-situ, rigs-to-reefs, etc.) by stakeholders will vary depending on the values of stakeholder in that particular context. This paper explores the idea of value-focused thinking and derive implications for decommissioning decision-making. Overall, the research finding suggests that rather than basing a decommissioning decision solely on scientific evidence, there is also a need for the decommissioning decisions to be able to reflect the actual values of stakeholders in that particular context. The criteria and weightage of the adopted multi-criteria decision analysis tool, for example, should accurately represent the actual values of stakeholders, so as to enable the tool to produce outcomes and decisions that has a higher probability of stakeholder acceptance.

To Hell with the Cell: The Case for Immersive Statecraft Education

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvid Bell ◽  
Alexander Bollfrass
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real World ◽  
Control Cell ◽  
Harvard University ◽  
Simulation Design ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Effective Training ◽  
Training And Research ◽  
Negotiation Simulation ◽  
New Framework

Abstract Current wargaming techniques are effective training and research instruments for military scenarios with fixed tools and boundaries on the problem. Control cells composed of officiants adjudicating and evaluating moves enforce these boundaries. Real-world crises, however, unfold in several dimensions in a chaotic context, a condition requiring decision-making under deep uncertainty. In this article, we assess how pedagogical exercises can be designed to effectively capture this level of complexity and describe a new framework for developing deeply immersive exercises. We propose a method for designing crisis environments that are dynamic, deep, and decentralized (3D). These obviate the need for a control cell and enhance the usefulness of exercises in preparing military and policy practitioners by better replicating real-world decision-making dynamics. This paper presents the application of this 3D method, which integrates findings from wargame and negotiation simulation design into immersive crisis exercises. We share observations from the research, design, and execution of “Red Horizon,” an immersive crisis exercise held three times at Harvard University with senior civilian and military participants from multiple countries. It further explores connections to contemporary trends in international relations scholarship.

A Look at the Intelligence Establishment

Worldview ◽  
1971 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 17-19
Author(s):  
Paul W. Blackstock
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
National Security ◽  
Executive Control ◽  
Original Work ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Harvard University ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Vanderbilt University

Under a new title, The Intelligence Establishment (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1970), Professor Harry Howe Ransom of Vanderbilt University has thoroughly revised and up-dated his original work, Central Intelligence and National Security, which first appeared in 1958. The result is a highly readable, well-informed survey of the intelligence community (including a new chapter on the British intelligence system), plus penetrating essays on the nature of intelligence, its relationship to national policy and decision-making, surveillance by Congress, and the related problems of administration and executive control.

scholarly journals Combining Value-Focused Thinking and PROMETHEE Techniques for Selecting a Portfolio of Distributed Energy Generation Projects in the Brazilian Electricity Sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 11091
Author(s):  
Mirian Bortoluzzi ◽  
Marcelo Furlan ◽  
Simone Geitenes Colombo ◽  
Tatiele Martins Amaral ◽  
Celso Correia de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Energy Generation ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Distributed Energy ◽  
Numerical Application ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Value Focused Thinking ◽  
Distributed Energy Generation

This article aims to propose a multi-criteria model to support decision-making from a portfolio in selecting technologies for Distributed Generation of Energy (DGE) projects based on the characteristics of the geographic space in Brazil. The decision model involves using multi-criteria to support the evaluation, prioritization, and selection of projects under a multistage decision-making process that fits into a strategic management cycle within the energy sector of Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil). The over-classification techniques Preference Ranking Organization Technique for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) II and V were applied under the Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) approach, reflecting the decision-maker or manager preferences among several conflicting criteria in the investment context of sustainable distributed energy generation projects. Based on real data, a numerical application is employed to view the steps of this decision model and illustrate the adequacy and effectiveness in practical issues of portfolio management.

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