Characteristics and large‐scale drivers of atmospheric rivers associated with extreme floods in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
D. A. Lavers ◽  
D. M. Hannah
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Extreme Floods

scholarly journals Drivers and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Daemon Kennett
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Climate Patterns

<p><b>Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow jets of intense water vapour flux that are a fundamental component of the global atmospheric circulation, transporting moisture and heat from the tropics to higher latitudes. When an AR makes landfall, especially in areas of steep topography, it releases much of its water vapour as precipitation through orographic uplift. Thus, although ARs play a positive role in the distribution and maintenance of water resources in the mid-latitudes, they are also associated with extreme precipitation and flooding. AR events in New Zealand have had major socio-economic consequences with losses to property, farmland, stock, roads and bridges. However, despite knowledge of their occurrence, focused investigations of ARs in New Zealand have received relatively little scientific attention. In particular, little is known about how large-scale climate patterns, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence ARs and AR-related precipitation extremes.</b></p> <p>The aim of this study is to quantify the impacts and large-scale drivers of AR landfalls in New Zealand. We employ a new AR detection algorithm, developed specifically for the New Zealand case, to investigate landfalling ARs over a 41-year period from 1979-2019. We investigate the general climatology of ARs, and evaluate the synoptic conditions that drive these events. Using a comprehensive daily rainfall dataset comprising 189 stations, we also investigate the impacts of ARs on NZ rainfall and flooding events. For northern and western regions, over 45% of rainfall fell directly under AR conditions, contributing to daily rainfall totals 2.5 times higher on average compared to non-AR days. Further, we find that AR days were associated with up to 70% of daily rainfall totals above the 99th percentile, with insurance damages exceeding NZ $1.4 billion since 1980.</p> <p>Finally, for the first time in New Zealand, we investigate how large-scale climate patterns influence the occurrence of ARs. We find that changes in the leading modes of climate variability can alter seasonal and regional AR frequency by upwards of 30%. The SAM is identified as the dominant driver of AR activity (other than the seasonal cycle), with the positive SAM phase associated with a 16% reduction in AR occurrence during summer (30-35% reduction for the North Island). The links between AR occurrence and ENSO were less clear, though a few statistically significant relationships were found. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the leading mode of intraseasonal tropical variability, was found to significantly influence the frequency and timing of AR landfalls (particularly for the northern North Island). Favourable MJO phases were associated with positive AR frequency anomalies +60% above the mean. These results demonstrate potential use of the AR framework in skilful subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of extreme rainfall in New Zealand.</p>

scholarly journals Drivers and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Daemon Kennett
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Climate Patterns

<p><b>Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow jets of intense water vapour flux that are a fundamental component of the global atmospheric circulation, transporting moisture and heat from the tropics to higher latitudes. When an AR makes landfall, especially in areas of steep topography, it releases much of its water vapour as precipitation through orographic uplift. Thus, although ARs play a positive role in the distribution and maintenance of water resources in the mid-latitudes, they are also associated with extreme precipitation and flooding. AR events in New Zealand have had major socio-economic consequences with losses to property, farmland, stock, roads and bridges. However, despite knowledge of their occurrence, focused investigations of ARs in New Zealand have received relatively little scientific attention. In particular, little is known about how large-scale climate patterns, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence ARs and AR-related precipitation extremes.</b></p> <p>The aim of this study is to quantify the impacts and large-scale drivers of AR landfalls in New Zealand. We employ a new AR detection algorithm, developed specifically for the New Zealand case, to investigate landfalling ARs over a 41-year period from 1979-2019. We investigate the general climatology of ARs, and evaluate the synoptic conditions that drive these events. Using a comprehensive daily rainfall dataset comprising 189 stations, we also investigate the impacts of ARs on NZ rainfall and flooding events. For northern and western regions, over 45% of rainfall fell directly under AR conditions, contributing to daily rainfall totals 2.5 times higher on average compared to non-AR days. Further, we find that AR days were associated with up to 70% of daily rainfall totals above the 99th percentile, with insurance damages exceeding NZ $1.4 billion since 1980.</p> <p>Finally, for the first time in New Zealand, we investigate how large-scale climate patterns influence the occurrence of ARs. We find that changes in the leading modes of climate variability can alter seasonal and regional AR frequency by upwards of 30%. The SAM is identified as the dominant driver of AR activity (other than the seasonal cycle), with the positive SAM phase associated with a 16% reduction in AR occurrence during summer (30-35% reduction for the North Island). The links between AR occurrence and ENSO were less clear, though a few statistically significant relationships were found. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the leading mode of intraseasonal tropical variability, was found to significantly influence the frequency and timing of AR landfalls (particularly for the northern North Island). Favourable MJO phases were associated with positive AR frequency anomalies +60% above the mean. These results demonstrate potential use of the AR framework in skilful subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of extreme rainfall in New Zealand.</p>

Partnerships Generate Co-Benefits in Agricultural Stream Restoration (Canterbury, New Zealand)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M. Febria ◽  
Maggie Bayfield ◽  
Kathryn E. Collins ◽  
Hayley S. Devlin ◽  
Brandon C. Goeller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Indigenous Rights ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystem ◽  
Reduced Pressure ◽  
Ecosystem Integrity ◽  
Riparian Management ◽  
Scale Change ◽  
Large Scale Change

In Aotearoa New Zealand, agricultural land-use intensification and decline in freshwater ecosystem integrity pose complex challenges for science and society. Despite riparian management programmes across the country, there is frustration over a lack in widespread uptake, upfront financial costs, possible loss in income, obstructive legislation and delays in ecological recovery. Thus, social, economic and institutional barriers exist when implementing and assessing agricultural freshwater restoration. Partnerships are essential to overcome such barriers by identifying and promoting co-benefits that result in amplifying individual efforts among stakeholder groups into coordinated, large-scale change. Here, we describe how initial progress by a sole farming family at the Silverstream in the Canterbury region, South Island, New Zealand, was used as a catalyst for change by the Canterbury Waterway Rehabilitation Experiment, a university-led restoration research project. Partners included farmers, researchers, government, industry, treaty partners (Indigenous rights-holders) and practitioners. Local capacity and capability was strengthened with practitioner groups, schools and the wider community. With partnerships in place, co-benefits included lowered costs involved with large-scale actions (e.g., earth moving), reduced pressure on individual farmers to undertake large-scale change (e.g., increased participation and engagement), while also legitimising the social contracts for farmers, scientists, government and industry to engage in farming and freshwater management. We describe contributions and benefits generated from the project and describe iterative actions that together built trust, leveraged and aligned opportunities. These actions were scaled from a single farm to multiple catchments nationally.

Harvest rate of sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) by Rakiura Māori: a potential tool to monitor population trends?

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Catherine Kitson
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Harvest Rate ◽  
General Index ◽  
Careful Screening ◽  
Potential Tool

Sooty shearwaters (tītī, muttonbird, Puffinus griseus) are highly abundant migratory seabirds, which return to breeding colonies in New Zealand. The Rakiura Māori annual chick harvest on islands adjacent to Rakiura (Stewart Island), is one of the last large-scale customary uses of native wildlife in New Zealand. This study aimed to establish whether the rate at which muttonbirders can extract chicks from their breeding burrows indicates population trends of sooty shearwaters. Harvest rates increased slightly with increasing chick densities on Putauhinu Island. Birders' harvest rates vary in their sensitivities to changing chick density. Therefore a monitoring panel requires careful screening to ensure that harvest rates of the birders selected are sensitive to chick density, and represents a cross-section of different islands. Though harvest rates can provide only a general index of population change, it can provide an inexpensive and feasible way to measure population trends. Detecting trends is the first step to assessing the long-term sustainability of the harvest.

scholarly journals Indigenous ethnic identity, in-group warmth, and psychological wellbeing: A longitudinal study of Māori

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Houkamau ◽  
Petar Milojev ◽  
Lara Greaves ◽  
Kiri Dell ◽  
Chris G Sibley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Cultural Knowledge ◽  
Identity Centrality

AbstractLongitudinal studies into the relationship between affect (positive or negative feelings) towards one’s own ethnic group and wellbeing are rare, particularly for Indigenous peoples. In this paper, we test the longitudinal effects of in-group warmth (a measure of ethnic identity affect) and ethnic identity centrality on three wellbeing measures for New Zealand Māori: life satisfaction (LS), self-esteem (SE), and personal wellbeing (PW). Longitudinal panel data collected from Māori (N = 3803) aged 18 or over throughout seven annual assessments (2009–2015) in the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study were analyzed using latent trajectory models with structured residuals to examine cross-lagged within-person effects. Higher in-group warmth towards Māori predicted increases in all three wellbeing measures, even more strongly than ethnic identity centrality. Bi-directionally, PW and SE predicted increased in-group warmth, and SE predicted ethnic identification. Further, in sample-level (between-person) trends, LS and PW rose, but ethnic identity centrality interestingly declined over time. This is the first large-scale longitudinal study showing a strong relationship between positive affect towards one’s Indigenous ethnic group and wellbeing. Efforts at cultural recovery and restoration have been a deliberate protective response to colonization, but among Māori, enculturation and access to traditional cultural knowledge varies widely. The data reported here underline the role of ethnic identity affect as an important dimension of wellbeing and call for continued research into the role of this dimension of ethnic identity for Indigenous peoples.

Changes in mechanisms and intensity of Western U.S. floods, 1960-2013

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Fayne ◽  
Huilin Huang ◽  
Mike Fischella ◽  
Yufei Liu ◽  
Zhaoxin Ban ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Noticeable Increase ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Extreme precipitation, a critical factor in flooding, has selectively increased with warmer temperatures in the Western U.S. Despite this, the streamflow measurements have captured no noticeable increase in large-scale flood frequency or intensity. As flood studies have mostly focused on specific flood events in particular areas, analyses of large-scale floods and their changes have been scarce. For floods during 1960-2013, we identify six flood generating mechanisms (FGMs) that are prominent across the Western U.S., including atmospheric rivers and non-atmospheric rivers, monsoons, convective storms, radiation-driven snowmelt, and rain-on-snow, in order to identify to what extent different types of floods are changing based on the dominant FGM. The inconsistency between extreme precipitation and lack of flood increase suggests that the impact of climate change on flood risk has been modulated by hydro-meteorological and physiographic processes such as sharp increases in temperature that drive increased evapotranspiration and decreased soil moisture. Our results emphasize the importance of FGMs in understanding the complex interactions of flooding and climatic changes and explain the broad spatiotemporal changes that have occurred across the vast Western U.S. for the past 50 years.&lt;/p&gt;

Control of chironomid midge larvae in wastewater stabilisation ponds: comparison of five compounds

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (12) ◽  
pp. 191-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Craggs ◽  
L. Golding ◽  
S. Clearwater ◽  
L. Susarla ◽  
W. Donovan
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Bacillus Thuringiensis ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Adult Emergence ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Organic Loading ◽  
Valuable Component ◽  
Pre Treatment

Chironomid midge larvae are a valuable component of wastewater stabilisation pond (WSP) ecology. However, in high numbers, adult midge swarms can be a nuisance to near-by urban areas. Improving WSP treatment by incorporating aerobic or maturation ponds or by the addition of pre-treatment to reduce organic loading also increases the availability of aerobic sediment (midge larva habitat) in the pond system and the potential for midge nuisance problems. The efficacy of Maldison, an organophosphate traditionally used to control midge larvae in New Zealand WSPs, was compared to Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti), Methoprene, Pyriproxyfen and Diflubenzuron which are all more specific to insects and have fewer adverse environmental effects. Initial laboratory trials established the concentration of each compound required to achieve 95% control of the midge population. During 21-day small-scale trials within the WSP, Bti, Diflubenzuron and Maldison reduced live larvae numbers substantially (80–89%) compared to controls and adult midge emergence was markedly reduced by all compounds (72–96%). Large-scale trials with Bti (Vectobac® WG) powder (1000 μg/L) only caused a slight reduction in midge larvae numbers compared to controls and had little effect on adult emergence, however, Methoprene (Prolink XRG granules) (50 μgAI/L) reduced midge adult emergence by ∼80% over 25 days and has been used successfully to control several midge nuisance outbreaks.

scholarly journals Global Hawk dropsonde observations of the Arctic atmosphere obtained during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) field campaign

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 3917-3926 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Intrieri ◽  
G. de Boer ◽  
M. D. Shupe ◽  
J. R. Spackman ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
Aircraft System ◽  
Global Hawk

Abstract. In February and March of 2011, the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic during the Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) field campaign. The WISPAR science missions were designed to (1) mprove our understanding of Pacific weather systems and the polar atmosphere; (2) evaluate operational use of unmanned aircraft for investigating these atmospheric events; and (3) demonstrate operational and research applications of a UAS dropsonde system at high latitudes. Dropsondes deployed from the Global Hawk successfully obtained high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind information between the stratosphere and surface. The 35 m wingspan Global Hawk, which can soar for ~ 31 h at altitudes up to ~ 20 km, was remotely operated from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base (AFB) in California. During the 25 h polar flight on 9–10 March 2011, the Global Hawk released 35 sondes between the North Slope of Alaska and 85° N latitude, marking the first UAS Arctic dropsonde mission of its kind. The polar flight transected an unusually cold polar vortex, notable for an associated record-level Arctic ozone loss, and documented polar boundary layer variations over a sizable ocean–ice lead feature. Comparison of dropsonde observations with atmospheric reanalyses reveal that, for this day, large-scale structures such as the polar vortex and air masses are captured by the reanalyses, while smaller-scale features, including low-level jets and inversion depths, are mischaracterized. The successful Arctic dropsonde deployment demonstrates the capability of the Global Hawk to conduct operations in harsh, remote regions. The limited comparison with other measurements and reanalyses highlights the potential value of Arctic atmospheric dropsonde observations where routine in situ measurements are practically nonexistent.

scholarly journals Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas K. Miller ◽  
David Hotz ◽  
Jessica Winton ◽  
Lukas Stewart
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Appalachian Mountains ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Southern Appalachian Mountains ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Southern Appalachian

Abstract Rainfall observations in the Pigeon River basin of the southern Appalachian Mountains over a 5-yr period (2009–14) are examined to investigate the synoptic patterns responsible for downstream flooding events as observed near Knoxville, Tennessee, and Asheville, North Carolina. The study is designed to address the hypothesis that atmospheric rivers (ARs) are primarily responsible for the highest accumulation periods observed by the gauge network and that these periods correspond to events having a societal hazard (flooding). The upper 2.5% (extreme) and middle 33% (normal) rainfall events flagged using the gauge network observations showed that half of the heaviest rainfall cases were associated with an AR. Of those extreme events having an AR influence, over 73% had a societal hazard defined as minor-to-major flooding at the USGS river gauge located in Newport, Tennessee, or flooding observations for locations near the Tennessee and North Carolina border reported in the Storm Data publication. Composites of extreme AR-influenced events revealed a synoptic pattern consisting of a highly amplified slow-moving positively tilted trough, suggestive of the anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking scenario that sometimes precedes hydrological events of high impact. Composites of extreme non-AR events indicated a large-scale weather pattern typical of a warm season scenario in which an anomalous low-level cyclone, cut off far from the primary upper-tropospheric jet, was located in the southeastern United States. AR events without a societal hazard represented a large fraction (75%–88%) of all ARs detected during the study period. Synoptic-scale weather patterns of these events were fast moving and had weak low-level atmospheric dynamics.

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