scholarly journals Precipitation Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan for the 21 century using a statistical downscaling framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Indus River Basin ◽  
Precipitation Projections

scholarly journals Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 29-57
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Moetasim Ashfaq ◽  
Bashir Ahmad ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Additional Measure ◽  
Indus River Basin

Abstract Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. We also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 178-179 ◽  
pp. 138-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buda Su ◽  
Jinlong Huang ◽  
Marco Gemmer ◽  
Dongnan Jian ◽  
Hui Tao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Indus River Basin ◽  
Projected Changes

Sea-level responses to erosion and deposition of sediment in the Indus River basin and the Arabian Sea

2015 ◽  
Vol 416 ◽  
pp. 12-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken L. Ferrier ◽  
Jerry X. Mitrovica ◽  
Liviu Giosan ◽  
Peter D. Clift
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Indus River Basin

Transboundary Indus River Basin: Potential Threats to Its Integrity

2019 ◽  
pp. 183-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud Cheema ◽  
Muhammad Uzair Qamar
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Indus River Basin
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