scholarly journals Changes of extreme climate events and related risk exposures in Huang‐Huai‐Hai river basin under 1.5–2°C global warming targets based on high resolution combined dynamical and statistical downscaling dataset

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Wu ◽  
Zhenyu Han ◽  
Rouke Li ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
Ying Shi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Global Warming Targets ◽  
Climate Events

scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (19) ◽  
pp. 4881-4886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh ◽  
Deepti Singh ◽  
Justin S. Mankin ◽  
Daniel E. Horton ◽  
Daniel L. Swain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Climate Events

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

scholarly journals Observationally constrained projection of the reduced intensification of extreme climate events in Central Asia from 0.5 °C less global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 543-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongdong Peng ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Lixia Zhang ◽  
Wenxia Zhang ◽  
Xiaolong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Climate Events ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Arid Central Asia is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Information on potential future changes in extreme climate events in Central Asia is limited. In this study, the performances of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climatological extremes in Central Asia are first evaluated, and a bias correction method is employed to constrain future projections. The responses of extreme climate events over Central Asia to future warming and, in particular, the impact of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming scenarios are then assessed based on the observationally constrained projections. During the twenty-first century, coldest night (TNn), coldest day (TXn), warmest night (TNx), warmest day (TXx), 1-day maximum precipitation (RX1 day), 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5 day), and precipitation intensity (SDII) in Central Asia would robustly increase at best estimated rates of 1.93 °C, 1.71 °C, 1.18 °C, 1.25 °C, 6.30%, 5.71%, and 4.99% per degree of global warming, respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Compared with the 2 °C warming scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could reduce the intensification (relative to 1986–2005) of TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, RX1 day, RX5 day, and SDII by 33%, 24%, 32%, 29%, 39%, 42%, and 53% from the best estimates under RCP8.5, respectively. The avoided intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx (RX1 day and SDII) would be larger (smaller) under RCP4.5. This suggests that a low warming target is necessary for avoiding the dangerous risk of extremes in this arid region.

Changes in Extreme Climate Events in Rice-Growing Regions Under Different Warming Scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
Jiangnan Li ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Critical Time ◽  
Regional Governance ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Central China ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Climate Events

Scientific prediction of critical time points of the global temperature increases and assessment of the associated changes in extreme climate events can provide essential guidance for agricultural production, regional governance, and disaster mitigation. Using daily temperature and precipitation model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the time points of the temperature that will increase by 1.5 and 2.0°C were assessed under three different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). To characterize the change of extreme climate events in the rice-growing regions in China, six indices were designed, and a time slice method was used. An analysis from an ensemble of CMIP6 models showed that under SSP245, the global mean temperature will rise by 1.5°C/2.0°C by approximately 2030/2049. A global warming of 2.0°C does not occur under SSP126. The time for a 1.5°C/2.0°C warming all becomes earlier under SSP585. Under 1.5°C of global warming, the number of warm days (TX90p), rice heat damage index (Ha), consecutive dry days (CDD), 5-day maximum precipitation (Rx5day), and number of annual total extreme precipitation events (R99pTOT) will clearly increase, while the number of cold damage (Cd) events will decrease. All the indices show a strong variability regionally. For example, the CDD increased significantly in the Central China and South China rice-growing regions. The monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation increased by as much as 6.8 mm in the Southwest China rice-growing region.

Changes in extreme climate events in eastern China during 1960–2013: A case study of the Huaihe River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 380-381 ◽  
pp. 22-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Shaoming Pan ◽  
Liguo Cao ◽  
Xun Cai ◽  
Kexin Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
The Huaihe River ◽  
Climate Events

scholarly journals Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 6029
Author(s):  
Zigeng Niu ◽  
Lan Feng ◽  
Xinxin Chen ◽  
Xiuping Yi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Extreme Climate Events ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
The Yellow River Basin ◽  
Climate Events

The Yellow River Basin (YLRB) and Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) are heavily populated, important grain-producing areas in China, and they are sensitive to climate change. In order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme climate events in the two river basins, seven extreme temperature indices and seven extreme precipitation indices were projected for the periods of 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 using data from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and the delta change and reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methods were applied to obtain more robust ensemble values. First, the present evaluation indicated that the simulations satisfactorily reproduced the spatial distribution of temperature extremes, and the spatial distribution of precipitation extremes was generally suitably captured. Next, the REA values were adopted to conduct projections under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in the 21st century. Warming extremes were projected to increase while cold events were projected to decrease, particularly on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, the Loess Plateau, and the lower reaches of the YZRB. In addition, the number of wet days (CWD) was projected to decrease in most regions of the two basins, but the highest five-day precipitation (Rx5day) and precipitation intensity (SDII) index values were projected to increase in the YZRB. The number of consecutive dry days (CDD) was projected to decrease in the northern and western regions of the two basins. Specifically, the warming trends in the two basins were correlated with altitude and atmospheric circulation patterns, and the wetting trends were related to the atmospheric water vapor content increases in summer and the strength of external radiative forcing. Notably, the magnitude of the changes in the extreme climate events was projected to increase with increasing warming targets, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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