Anchoring of atmospheric teleconnection patterns by Arctic Sea ice loss and its link to winter cold anomalies in East Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 547-558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muyuan Li ◽  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Ian Simmonds ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Linhao Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Winter Cold ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

Patterns of Asian Winter Climate Variability and Links to Arctic Sea Ice

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (17) ◽  
pp. 6841-6858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingyi Wu ◽  
Jingzhi Su ◽  
Rosanne D’Arrigo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract This paper describes two dominant patterns of Asian winter climate variability: the Siberian high (SH) pattern and the Asia–Arctic (AA) pattern. The former depicts atmospheric variability closely associated with the intensity of the Siberian high, and the latter characterizes the teleconnection pattern of atmospheric variability between Asia and the Arctic, which is distinct from the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AA pattern plays more important roles in regulating winter precipitation and the 850-hPa meridional wind component over East Asia than the SH pattern, which controls surface air temperature variability over East Asia. In the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas, sea ice loss in both autumn and winter could bring the positive phase of the SH pattern or cause the negative phase of the AA pattern. The latter corresponds to a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhanced winter precipitation in the midlatitudes of the Asian continent and East Asia. For the SH pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn emerges in the Siberian marginal seas, and winter loss mainly occurs in the Barents Sea, Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. For the AA pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn is observed in the Barents–Kara Seas, the western Laptev Sea, and the Beaufort Sea, and winter loss only occurs in some areas of the Barents Sea, the Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. Simulation experiments with observed sea ice forcing also support that Arctic sea ice loss may favor frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the AA pattern. The results also imply that the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and winter atmospheric variability over East Asia is unstable, which is a challenge for predicting the EAWM based on Arctic sea ice loss.

scholarly journals Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 4999-5017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufei Zou ◽  
Yuhang Wang ◽  
Zuowei Xie ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Philip J. Rasch
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Regional Ventilation ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanisms of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conduct four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three subregions in the climate model. The results indicate distinct responses in circulation patterns and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 132 %) and the intensity (by 30 %) of monthly air stagnation extremes being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi seas). The increased air stagnation extremes are mainly driven by an amplified planetary-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of Arctic origin takes place primarily via the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversions near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and midlatitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

scholarly journals Arctic sea-ice loss fuels extreme European snowfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Bailey ◽  
Alun Hubbard ◽  
Eric S. Klein ◽  
Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen ◽  
Pete D. Akers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Observationally constrained multi-model atmospheric response to future Arctic sea ice loss 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doug Smith ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Scientific Debate ◽  
Model Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Constrained Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss could weaken mid-latitude westerlies and promote more severe cold winters has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we analyse a large multi-model ensemble of coordinated experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and find that the modelled response is proportional to the simulated eddy momentum feedback, and that this is underestimated in all models. Hence, we derive an observationally constrained model response showing a modest weakening of mid-latitude tropospheric and stratospheric winds, an equatorward shift of the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Although our constrained response is consistent with observed relationships which have weakened recently, we caution that emergent constraints may only provide a lower bound.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyo-Seok Park ◽  
Seong-Joong Kim ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Andrew L. Stewart ◽  
Seo-Yeon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufei Zou ◽  
Yuhang Wang ◽  
Zuowei Xie ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Philip J. Rasch
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Regional Ventilation ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanism of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conducted four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three sub-regions in the climate model. The results indicate different responses in the general circulation and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 120 %) and the intensity (by 32 %) of air stagnation extreme events being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas). The increased air stagnation extreme events are mainly driven by an amplified hemispheric-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave-train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of the Arctic origin takes place primarily in the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversion near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on the state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and middle-latitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

scholarly journals Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 2653-2687 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. West ◽  
A. B. Keen ◽  
H. T. Hewitt
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ensembles Project ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract. The fully-coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the MOC and subpolar gyre in some integrations, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes.

scholarly journals Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 3255-3263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumiaki Ogawa ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
Torben Koenigk ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Winter Climate Change ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter
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