Time‐lagged correlations associated with interannual variations of pre‐monsoon and post‐monsoon precipitation in Myanmar and the Indochina Peninsula

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 3792-3812
Author(s):  
Rattana Chhin ◽  
Myint M. Shwe ◽  
Shigeo Yoden
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Indochina Peninsula ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Time Lagged

Interannual variability of summer monsoon precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula in association with ENSO

2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 523-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Ge ◽  
Xiefei Zhi ◽  
Zaheer Ahmad Babar ◽  
Weiwei Tang ◽  
Peng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Indochina Peninsula

scholarly journals Chronological Trend of Climate in the Lumle Village Development Committee from Kaski District, Nepal

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yajna Prasad Timilsina
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Interdisciplinary Studies ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Increasing Trend

A study has been conducted to examine how the temperature and precipitation in the Lumle Village Development of Kaski district, Nepal has varied over the thirty years period of 1997-2008. Maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data were collected from Narayani basin. Maximum and minimum-summer and winter temperatures and precipitation categorized as pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon were studied with duration of 10 years separately and average annual temperature and precipitation trends of each decade was examined. The trends of temporal variations of temperature and precipitation were analyzed using secular trend of time series analysis with simple linear regression. For almost all decades maximum temperatures were found to be increasing trend whereas most of the minimum temperatures for three decades were found to be decreasing trend except for two events. So, maximum and minimum temperatures were seen increasing trend with average value 0.033 Celsius per year. Extreme temperature event was seen in 2000-2005. Post monsoon precipitation was seen erratic pattern with increasing during first decade and decreasing second and third decades. Pre-monsoon precipitation is constant pattern and trend of precipitation in the first two decades are increasing where as present decade seen decreasing. But average precipitation is increasing trend with rate of 2.5346mm/year because increasing trend of previous two decades outweighs present rate. Extreme drought period was seen in 2005. Actually, it is concluded that Lumle has decreasing trend in total seasonal precipitation and an increasing trend in temperatures. Crossing the Border: International Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Vol.3(1) 2015: 53-64

scholarly journals Fitting of Probability Distribution on the Post-Monsoon Rainfall of Different Locations in Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Md. Habibur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Post Monsoon

Different probability distributions of post-monsoon rainfall of different locations in Bangladesh are fitted. It is found that, for the data, Weibull distribution for Barisal, Bogra, Chittagong, Comilla, Cox's Bazar, Faridpur, Jessore, Khulna, Maijdi Court, Mymensingh, Satkhira, and Sylhet; the Gamma distribution for Dhaka, Ishurdi, Rangamati, Rangpur, and Srimangal based on graphical assessment and goodness-of-fit criterion. In this study, different probability distributions have been fitted for the data of post-monsoon precipitation for 17 different locations in Bangladesh over the period 1961-2014.

scholarly journals Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 4803-4824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal Ahmed ◽  
Dhanapala A. Sachindra ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Mehmet C. Demirel ◽  
Eun-Sung Chung
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Spatial Metrics ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. The climate modelling community has trialled a large number of metrics for evaluating the temporal performance of general circulation models (GCMs), while very little attention has been given to the assessment of their spatial performance, which is equally important. This study evaluated the performance of 36 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in relation to their skills in simulating mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using state-of-the-art spatial metrics, SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman–Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling–Gupta efficiency, for the period 1961–2005. The multi-model ensemble (MME) precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were generated through the intelligent merging of simulated precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature of selected GCMs employing random forest (RF) regression and simple mean (SM) techniques. The results indicated some differences in the ranks of GCMs for different spatial metrics. The overall ranks indicated NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 as the best GCMs in simulating the spatial patterns of mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan. MME precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature generated based on the best-performing GCMs showed more similarities with observed precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature compared to precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature simulated by individual GCMs. The MMEs developed using RF displayed better performance than the MMEs based on SM. Multiple spatial metrics have been used for the first time for selecting GCMs based on their capability to mimic the spatial patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature. The approach proposed in the present study can be extended to any number of GCMs and climate variables and applicable to any region for the suitable selection of an ensemble of GCMs to reduce uncertainties in climate projections.

scholarly journals Elevation Dependency of Precipitation over Southern Slope of Central Himalaya

Jalawaayu ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Shankar Sharma ◽  
Nitesh Khadka ◽  
Bikash Nepal ◽  
Shravan Kumar Ghimire ◽  
Nirajan Luintel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Post Monsoon

Precipitation plays vital roles in the global water cycle, knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation of the precipitation is essential to understanding extreme environmental phenomena such as floods, landslides, and drought. In this paper, the integrated characteristics of precipitation during 1980–2016 over Nepal along with the seasonal elevation dependency of precipitation were examined for three different regions over the country using Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product. The spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation varies significantly with the highest (lowest) precipitation of ~5500 (~100) mm/year in the Arun valley (Manang and Mustang). The precipitation regime of the country is determined by the contribution of the monthly precipitation amount with distinct spatial gradients between the eastern and the western sides during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter seasons. On the contrary, the spatial distribution of monsoon precipitation tends to more heterogeneous with visible differences between the lowland, midland, and highlands as similar to the annual one. Further, elevation dependency of seasonal precipitation revealed that the winter and post-monsoon precipitation distribution in western and central are very similar, whereas post-monsoon precipitation was found slightly higher than winter season in the eastern region. The highest precipitation areas in eastern and central region are located between 2000-2500 m, which is between 500 and 1000 m in the western region of the country. Overall, the pre-monsoon, summer monsoon and annual precipitation increases gradually with elevation upto 2500 m and then decreases with increasing elevation, whereas winter and post-monsoon precipitation are almost identical to each elevation interval of 500 m.

scholarly journals Impact of Model Resolution on the Prediction of Summer Precipitation over the United States and Mexico

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 3910-3927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo ◽  
Jae-Kyung Schemm ◽  
H. M. H. Juang ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins ◽  
Yucheng Song
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of California ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Summer seasonal simulations for selected years were performed using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) at high (T126L28) and low (T62L28) resolutions, and the NCEP 80-km regional spectral model (RSM) nested in the T62 model outputs (RSM80/T62). All models have 28 levels in the vertical. All experiments were performed with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures to ensure that simulation errors came from model deficiencies. While the T126L28 model does not have a statistically significant advantage in simulating 500-hPa height anomalies over the Pacific–North American domain, it yields better monsoon precipitation forecasts and interannual variability. The T62L28 model simulations are too dry over the Southwest and northwestern Mexico when compared to observations and do not properly capture interannual variations of monsoon rainfall. The RSM80/T62 nesting improves the overall rainfall simulations somewhat but is not able to overcome deficiencies of the T62L28 global model to capture interannual variations in monsoon precipitation. Results indicate that a high-resolution version of the global model is needed for seasonal forecasts of monsoon precipitation. Both models capture the low-level jet from the Great Plains (GPLLJ) and rainfall anomalies associated with the 1993 summer floods and the 1988 summer drought, although the simulated rainfall maxima are often weaker and shifted spatially when compared to observations. The impact of horizontal resolution is largely local and is limited to areas over the western region of North America. The T126 model is able to capture the low-level jet from the Gulf of California (GCLLJ), while the T62 model is too coarse to resolve the Gulf of California (GOC). Moisture surges along the GOC are not properly simulated by the T62 model. Overall, the T62 model simulates a very dry Southwest and a weaker monsoon.

Idiographic Dynamics of Positive Affect in GAD

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 500-509
Author(s):  
Hannah G. Bosley ◽  
Devon B. Sandel ◽  
Aaron J. Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Positive Affect ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Regulatory Strategy ◽  
Constant State ◽  
Automatic Search ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
Exploratory Procedure

Abstract. Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is associated with worry and emotion regulation difficulties. The contrast-avoidance model suggests that individuals with GAD use worry to regulate emotion: by worrying, they maintain a constant state of negative affect (NA), avoiding a feared sudden shift into NA. We tested an extension of this model to positive affect (PA). During a week-long ecological momentary assessment (EMA) period, 96 undergraduates with a GAD analog provided four daily measurements of worry, dampening (i.e., PA suppression), and PA. We hypothesized a time-lagged mediation relationship in which higher worry predicts later dampening, and dampening predicts subsequently lower PA. A lag-2 structural equation model was fit to the group-aggregated data and to each individual time-series to test this hypothesis. Although worry and PA were negatively correlated in 87 participants, our model was not supported at the nomothetic level. However, idiographically, our model was well-fit for about a third (38.5%) of participants. We then used automatic search as an idiographic exploratory procedure to detect other time-lagged relationships between these constructs. While 46 individuals exhibited some cross-lagged relationships, no clear pattern emerged across participants. An alternative hypothesis about the speed of the relationship between variables is discussed using contemporaneous correlations of worry, dampening, and PA. Findings suggest heterogeneity in the function of worry as a regulatory strategy, and the importance of temporal scale for detection of time-lagged effects.

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