Modelling low frequency variability in Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone characteristics and its sensitivity to sea-surface temperature

2001 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.J.C. Reason ◽  
R.J. Murray
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Low Frequency Variability

scholarly journals The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1480-1489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Cannaby ◽  
Y. Sinan Hüsrevoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Warm Anomaly ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract Cannaby, H., and Hüsrevoğlu, Y. S. 2009. The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1480–1489. Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series collected in Irish waters between 1850 and 2007 exhibit a warming trend averaging 0.3°C. The strongest warming has occurred since 1994, with the warmest years in the record being 2005, 2006, and 2007. The warming trend is superimposed on significant interannual to multidecadal-scale variability, linked to basin-scale oscillations of the ocean–atmosphere system. The dominant modes of low-frequency variability in North Atlantic SST records, investigated using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, correspond to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, respectively, accounting for 23, 16, and 9% of the total variance in the dataset. Interannual variability in Irish SST records is dominated by the AMO, which, currently in its warm phase, explains approximately half of the current warm anomaly in the record. The EAP and the NAO influence variability in Irish SST time-series on a smaller scale, with the EAP also contributing to the current warm anomaly. After resolving the prevalent oscillatory modes of variability in the SST record, the underlying warming trend compares well with the global greenhouse effect warming trend. The anthropogenic contribution to the current warm anomaly in Irish SSTs was estimated at 0.41°C for 2006, and this is predicted to increase annually.

scholarly journals The impact of climate model sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclone simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 173-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Ching Hsu ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The influence of direct radiative forcing versus indirect sea surface temperature warming on southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah A. Fahad ◽  
Natalie J. Burls
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Subtropical Anticyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature Warming

AbstractSouthern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

scholarly journals Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 5497-5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Strongly Correlated

Abstract Revised estimates of kinetic energy production by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific are presented. These show considerable variability on interannual-to-multidecadal time scales. In the Atlantic, variability on time scales of a few years and more is strongly correlated with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature, while in the western North Pacific, this correlation, while still present, is considerably weaker. Using a combination of basic theory and empirical statistical analysis, it is shown that much of the variability in both ocean basins can be explained by variations in potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear. Potential intensity variations are in turn factored into components related to variations in net surface radiation, thermodynamic efficiency, and average surface wind speed. In the Atlantic, potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear strongly covary and are also highly correlated with sea surface temperature, at least during the period in which reanalysis products are considered reliable. In the Pacific, the three factors are not strongly correlated. The relative contributions of the three factors are quantified, and implications for future trends and variability of tropical cyclone activity are discussed.

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