scholarly journals An investigation of atmospheric rivers impacting heavy rainfall events in the North‐Central Mississippi River Valley

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (10) ◽  
pp. 4091-4106
Author(s):  
Jordan L. Rabinowitz ◽  
Anthony R. Lupo ◽  
Patrick S. Market ◽  
Patrick E. Guinan
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Mississippi River Valley ◽  
North Central ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

scholarly journals The Relationship between the Pacific–North American Teleconnection Pattern, the Great Plains Low-Level Jet, and North Central U.S. Heavy Rainfall Events*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (17) ◽  
pp. 6729-6742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith J. Harding ◽  
Peter K. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
North Central ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract This study demonstrates the relationship between the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern and the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). The negative phase of the PNA, which is associated with lower heights over the Great Plains and ridging in the southeastern United States, enhances the GPLLJ by increasing the pressure gradient within the GPLLJ on 6-hourly to monthly time scales. Strong GPLLJ events predominantly occur when the PNA is negative. Warm-season strong GPLLJ events with a very negative PNA (<−1) are associated with more persistent, longer wavelength planetary waves that increase the duration of GPLLJ events and enhance precipitation over the north central United States. When one considers the greatest 5-day north central U.S. precipitation events, a large majority occur when the PNA is negative, with most exhibiting a very negative PNA. Stronger moisture transport during heavy rainfall events with a very negative PNA decreases the precipitation of locally derived moisture compared to events with a very positive PNA. The PNA becomes negative 2–12 days before heavy rainfall events and is very negative within two weeks of 78% of heavy rainfall events in the north central United States, a finding that could be used to improve medium-range forecasts of heavy rainfall events.

scholarly journals Evaluating Linkages between Atmospheric Blocking Patterns and Heavy Rainfall Events across the North-Central Mississippi River Valley for Different ENSO Phases

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan L. Rabinowitz ◽  
Anthony R. Lupo ◽  
Patrick E. Guinan
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Atmospheric Flow ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The North ◽  
Strong Focus ◽  
Central United States ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Over the last six to seven decades, there has been a substantial increase in atmospheric research to better understand the dynamics and evolution of atmospheric blocking events. It is well known that atmospheric blocking serves as a catalyst for increasing the frequency of atmospheric flow regime stagnation and forecast unpredictability. This study built upon the results of previous work by expanding upon the findings of various climatologies and case studies. This work analyzes specific trends observed in association with atmospheric blocking predominantly across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Such trends include the relationship between the size, duration, and onset position of atmospheric blocking events and the frequency, duration, and intensity of heavy rainfall events across the central United States. A strong focus is placed on examining the duration and spatial extent of atmospheric blocking which has been found to influence the intensity of heavy rainfall events. The goal is to further bridge the gap between the location and duration of blocking highs and the intensity, duration, and frequency of heavy rainfall events which occur downstream of such blocking events.

scholarly journals Climatology, Synoptic Conditions, and Misanalyses of Mississippi River Valley Drylines

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (3) ◽  
pp. 927-943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca S. Duell ◽  
Matthew S. Van Den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Mississippi River Valley ◽  
The North ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract The dryline is an important focal point for convection initiation. Although drylines most commonly occur on the southern Great Plains, dryline passages and subsequent severe weather outbreaks have been documented in the Mississippi River valley. This study presents a 15-yr (1999–2013) climatology of these Mississippi River valley drylines and associated severe weather. Additionally, synoptic patterns are identified that may result in drylines moving atypically far eastward into the Mississippi River valley. In total, 39 Mississippi River valley drylines (hereafter referred to as MRV drylines) were identified from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset through the study period. Mean and anomaly synoptic composites were created for these drylines. MRV dryline events typically occur under synoptically active conditions with an amplified upper-air pattern, a 500-hPa shortwave trough to the west or northwest of the dryline, and a strong surface cyclone to the north. These boundaries are often misanalyzed or inconsistently analyzed as cold fronts, stationary fronts, or trough axes on surface maps; of the 33 cases of identified MRV drylines for which the Weather Prediction Center archived analyses were available, only 6 were correctly analyzed as drylines. Drylines moving into the Mississippi River valley often result in severe weather outbreaks in the Mississippi River valley, the Midwest, and the southeastern United States.

Placing heavy rainfall events in context using long time series: An example from the North York Moors

Weather ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 88-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Hopkins ◽  
Jeff Warburton ◽  
Tim Burt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Long Time Series ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Non-tropical Cyclone Related Winter Heavy Rainfall Events over the Philippines: Climatology and Mechanisms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyndon Mark Olaguera ◽  
Jun Matsumoto ◽  
Julie Mae B. Dado ◽  
Gemma Teresa T. Narisma
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
The North ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

AbstractThis study investigates non-tropical cyclone (TC) related boreal winter heavy rainfall events that lead to extensive flooding (HRF) over the Philippines through a case study and composite analysis. The HRF event examined occurred during January 16–22, 2017 over Cagayan de Oro City (CDO) in Mindanao Island (122–127°E, 5–10°N). The accumulated rainfall over CDO reached by about 180 mm from 00 UTC January 16 to 00 UTC January 17, 2017, exceeding the climatological maximum daily rainfall in January over this area. The interaction of a westward propagating cyclonic circulation over Mindanao Island (MCC) and a shearline that is associated with an eastward-propagating cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations along 20–40°N, led to enhanced moisture convergence and rainfall over CDO. The climatology of these non-TC related HRF events was examined through composite analysis of the HRF events documented in the Dartmouth Flood Observatory archive from 1979 to 2017. The authors identified 34 of such cases over the Philippines, in which 25 occurred over Mindanao Island. The composites of the circulation features of these 25 cases resemble those during the January 2017 case. A vorticity budget analysis was performed to explain the propagation tendency of the MCC. The results show that the MCC only propagated westward when the magnitudes of the stretching and advection terms of the vorticity tendency equation are almost comparable with each other, together with the weakening of the southerly winds around Mindanao Island. This study reveals how cold fronts over the north Pacific together with the MCC induces HRF events over the Philippines.

Atmospheric Rivers in Association with Summer Heavy Rainfall over the Yangtze Plain on Sub-seasonal Time Scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Liang ◽  
Guangtao Dong ◽  
Huqiang Zhang ◽  
Mei Zhao ◽  
Yue Ma
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), referring to long and narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, mainly from the tropics into the mid-latitudes in the low atmosphere. They often contribute to heavy rainfall generations outside the tropics. However, there is a lack of such AR studies in East Asia and it is still unclear how ARs act on different time scales during the boreal summer when frequent heavy precipitation events take place over the region. In this study, climatological ARs and their evolutions on both synoptic and sub-seasonal time scales associated with heavy rainfall events over the Yangtze Plain in China are investigated. Furthermore, its predictability is assessed by examining hindcast skills from an operational coupled seasonal forecast model. Results show that ARs embedded within the South Asian monsoon and Somali cross-equatorial flow provide a favorable background for steady moisture supply of summer rainfall into East Asia. We can call this favorable background as a climatological East Asian AR which has close connections with seasonal cycle and climatological intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO) of rainfall in the Yangtze Plain during its Meiyu season. The East Asian AR is also influenced by anomalous anti-cyclonic circulations over the tropical West Pacific when heavy rainfall events occur over the Yangtze Plain. Different from orography-induced precipitation, ARs leading to heavy rainfall over the Yangtze Plain are linked with the intrusions of cold air from its north. The major source of ARs responsible for heavy precipitation events over the Yangtze Plain appears to originate from tropical West Pacific on both synoptic and sub-seasonal time scales. By analyzing 23-yr hindcasts for May-June-July with start date of 1 May, we show that the current operational coupled seasonal forecast system of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (named as ACCESS-S1) has skillful rainfall forecasts at lead-time of 0 month (i.e. forecasting May monthly mean with initial conditions on 1 May), but the skill degrades significantly at longer lead time. Nevertheless, the model shows skills in predicting the variations of low-level moisture transport affecting the Yangtze River at longer lead time, suggesting that the ARs influencing summer monsoon rainfall in the East Asian region are likely to be more predictable than rainfall itself. This provides a potential of utilizing the skill from the coupled forecast system in predicting ARs to guide its rainfall forecasts in the East Asian summer season at longer lead time.</p>

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