How much of Typhoon Morakot's extreme rainfall is attributable to anthropogenic climate change?

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 3454-3464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chung‐Chieh Wang ◽  
Li‐Shan Tseng ◽  
Chien‐Chang Huang ◽  
Shih‐How Lo ◽  
Cheng‐Ta Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change

scholarly journals Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linh N. Luu ◽  
Paolo Scussolini ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Mugni Hadi Hariadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Tropical Depressions

AbstractIn October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.

scholarly journals The frequency of major flooding in coastal southeast Australia has significantly increased since the late 19th century

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Scott B. Power ◽  
Jeff Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Late 19Th Century ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Non Gaussian

Millions of Australians live in a 1500 km stretch of coastal catchments in south-east Australia. Major flooding in this region causes death, economic loss and major disruptions to the lives of its inhabitants. Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change might lead, or has already led, to an increased risk of extreme rainfall and associated flooding. Images of flooding commonly appear in the media, fuelling perceptions that flood frequency has already in-creased. Here we use a new dataset that allows us to estimate reliable trends over much longer periods than has previously been the case. The statistical significance of the trends is assessed using a method that is suitable for the non-Gaussian, serially correlated flood frequency data. We identify a statistically significant, increasing trend in the frequency of major floods since the late 19th century, which contributes to a 50% increase in frequency. While possible reasons for the increase are discussed (e.g. land use change, anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability), further research is needed to clarify the relative importance of possible contributors.

scholarly journals Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Emma Aalbers ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Return Time ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Southern Germany ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
The One

Abstract. The extreme precipitation that would result in historic flooding across areas of northeastern France and southern Germany began on May 26th when a large cut-off low spurred the development of several slow moving low pressure disturbances. The precipitation took different forms in each country. Warm and humid air from the south fueled sustained, large-scale, heavy rainfall over France resulting in significant river flooding on the Seine and Loire (and their tributaries), whereas the rain came from smaller clusters of intense thunderstorms in Germany triggering flash floods in mountainous areas. The floods left tens of thousands without power, caused over a billion Euros in damage in France alone, and are reported to have killed at least 18 people in Germany, France, Romania, and Belgium. The extreme nature of this event left many asking whether anthropogenic climate change may have played a role. To answer this question objectively, a rapid attribution analysis was performed in near-real time, using the best available observational data and climate models. In this rapid attribution study, where results were completed and released to the public in one week and an additional week to finalise this article, we present a first estimate of how anthropogenic climate change affected the likelihood of meteorological variables corresponding to the event, 3-day precipitation averaged over the Seine and Loire basins and the spatial maximum of 1-day precipitation over southern Germany (excluding the Alps). We find that the precipitation in the Seine basin was very rare in April–June, with a return time of hundreds of years in this season. It was less rare on the Loire, roughly 1 in 50 years in April–June. At a given location the return times for 1-day precipitation as heavy as the highest observed in southern Germany is 1 in 3000 years in April–June. This translates to once roughly every 20 years somewhere in this region and season. The probability of 3-day extreme rainfall in this season has increased by about a factor 2.3 (> 1.6) on the Seine a factor 2.0 (> 1.4) on the Loire, with all four climate models that simulated the statistical properties of the extremes agreeing. The observed trend of heavy 1-day precipitation in southern Germany is significantly negative, whereas the one model that has the correct distribution simulates a significant positive trend, making an attribution statement for these thunderstorms impossible at this time.

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

scholarly journals Extreme rainfall and its impacts in the Brazilian Minas Gerais state in January 2020: Can we blame climate change?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Dalagnol ◽  
Carolina B. Gramcianinov ◽  
Natália Machado Crespo ◽  
Rafael Luiz ◽  
Julio Barboza Chiquetto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Minas Gerais State
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