Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO‐Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 3313-3322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Alizadeh‐Choobari
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Model Version

scholarly journals A Comparison between One-Step and Two-Step Nesting Strategy in the Dynamical Downscaling of Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at 2.2 km Driven by ERA5 Reanalysis

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 260
Author(s):  
Mario Raffa ◽  
Alfredo Reder ◽  
Marianna Adinolfi ◽  
Paola Mercogliano
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
One Step

Recently, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) has released a new generation of reanalysis, acknowledged as ERA5, representing at the present the most plausible picture for the current climate. Although ERA5 enhancements, in some cases, its coarse spatial resolution (~31 km) could still discourage a direct use of precipitation fields. Such a gap could be faced dynamically downscaling ERA5 at convection permitting scale (resolution < 4 km). On this regard, the selection of the most appropriate nesting strategy (direct one-step against nested two-step) represents a pivotal issue for saving time and computational resources. Two questions may be raised within this context: (i) may the dynamical downscaling of ERA5 accurately represents past precipitation patterns? and (ii) at what extent may the direct nesting strategy performances be adequately for this scope? This work addresses these questions evaluating two ERA5-driven experiments at ~2.2 km grid spacing over part of the central Europe, run using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with different nesting strategies, for the period 2007–2011. Precipitation data are analysed at different temporal and spatial scales with respect to gridded observational datasets (i.e., E-OBS and RADKLIM-RW) and existing reanalysis products (i.e., ERA5-Land and UERRA). The present work demonstrates that the one-step experiment tendentially outperforms the two-step one when there is no spectral nudging, providing results at different spatial and temporal scales in line with the other existing reanalysis products. However, the results can be highly model and event dependent as some different aspects might need to be considered (i.e., the nesting strategies) during the configuration phase of the climate experiments. For this reason, a clear and consolidated recommendation on this topic cannot be stated. Such a level of confidence could be achieved in future works by increasing the number of cities and events analysed. Nevertheless, these promising results represent a starting point for the optimal experimental configuration assessment, in the frame of future climate studies.

scholarly journals Simulating river discharge in a snowy region of Japan using output from a regional climate model

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 55-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Ma ◽  
H. Kawase ◽  
S. Adachi ◽  
M. Fujita ◽  
H. G. Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
The Sea Of Japan ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Simulation Accuracy ◽  
Budget Analysis

Abstract. Snowfall amounts have fallen sharply along the eastern coast of the Sea of Japan since the mid-1980s. Toyama Prefecture, located approximately in the center of the Japan Sea region, includes high mountains of the northern Japanese Alps on three of its sides. The scarcity of meteorological observation points in mountainous areas limits the accuracy of hydrological analysis. With the development of computing technology, a dynamical downscaling method is widely applied into hydrological analysis. In this study, we numerically modeled river discharge using runoff data derived by a regional climate model (4.5-km spatial resolution) as input data to river networks (30-arcseconds resolution) for the Toyama Prefecture. The five main rivers in Toyama (the Oyabe, Sho, Jinzu, Joganji, and Kurobe rivers) were selected in this study. The river basins range in area from 368 to 2720 km2. A numerical experiment using climate comparable to that at present was conducted for the 1980s and 1990s. The results showed that seasonal river discharge could be represented and that discharge was generally overestimated compared with measurements, except for Oyabe River discharge, which was always underestimated. The average correlation coefficient for 10-year average monthly mean discharge was 0.8, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.88 for all five rivers, whereas the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient indicated that the simulation accuracy was insufficient. From the water budget analysis, it was possible to speculate that the lack of accuracy of river discharge may be caused by insufficient accuracy of precipitation simulation.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Models Add Value to Global Model Data: A Review and Selected Examples

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (9) ◽  
pp. 1181-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Burkhardt Rockel ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Jörg Winterfeldt ◽  
Matthias Zahn
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Polar Lows

An important challenge in current climate modeling is to realistically describe small-scale weather statistics, such as topographic precipitation and coastal wind patterns, or regional phenomena like polar lows. Global climate models simulate atmospheric processes with increasingly higher resolutions, but still regional climate models have a lot of advantages. They consume less computation time because of their limited simulation area and thereby allow for higher resolution both in time and space as well as for longer integration times. Regional climate models can be used for dynamical down-scaling purposes because their output data can be processed to produce higher resolved atmospheric fields, allowing the representation of small-scale processes and a more detailed description of physiographic details (such as mountain ranges, coastal zones, and details of soil properties). However, does higher resolution add value when compared to global model results? Most studies implicitly assume that dynamical downscaling leads to output fields that are superior to the driving global data, but little work has been carried out to substantiate these expectations. Here a series of articles is reviewed that evaluate the benefit of dynamical downscaling by explicitly comparing results of global and regional climate model data to the observations. These studies show that the regional climate model generally performs better for the medium spatial scales, but not always for the larger spatial scales. Regional models can add value, but only for certain variables and locations—particularly those influenced by regional specifics, such as coasts, or mesoscale dynamics, such as polar lows. Therefore, the decision of whether a regional climate model simulation is required depends crucially on the scientific question being addressed.

scholarly journals Reducing Forecast Errors of a Regional Climate Model Using Adaptive Filters

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 8001
Author(s):  
Michel Pompeu Tcheou ◽  
Lisandro Lovisolo ◽  
Alexandre Ribeiro Freitas ◽  
Sin Chan Chou
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Adaptive Filters ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts

In this work, the use of adaptive filters for reducing forecast errors produced by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) is investigated. Seasonal forecasts are compared against the reanalysis data provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The reanalysis is used to train adaptive filters based on the Recursive Least Squares algorithm in order to reduce the forecast error. The K-means unsupervised learning algorithm is used to obtain the number of filters to employ from the climate variables. The proposed approach is applied to some climate variables such as the meridional wind, zonal wind, and the geopotential height. The forecast is produced by the Eta RCM at 40-km resolution in a domain covering most of Brazil. Results show that the proposed approach is capable of reducing the forecast errors, according to evaluation metrics such as normalized mean square error, maximum absolute error, and maximum normalized absolute error, thus improving the seasonal climate forecasts.

Impactos da correção de viés sobre projeções de mudanças climáticas aplicadas a simulações de rendimento de culturas

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Vianna Cuadra ◽  
Rosmeri Porfírio Da Rocha ◽  
Marta Pereira Llopart ◽  
Daniel De Castro Victoria ◽  
Ivan Rodrigues de Almeida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Support System ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Version

O presente trabalho avaliou os erros sistemáticos das simulações climáticas e seus impactos nas simulações da produtividade agrícola da soja na região Sul do Brasil no clima atual e nas projeções climáticas. As simulações climáticas foram realizadas com o modelo RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4), aninhado no modelo climático global HadGEM2-ES para o cenário RCP8.5, e as simulações do rendimento da soja foram realizadas com o modelo CROPGRO-Soybean, dentro da plataforma DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer). As produtividades simuladas pelo CROPGRO-Soybean com os dados do RegCM4 sem correção de viés apresentam desvios em relação às simulações com os dados derivados das observações da ordem de até 50%. As simulações com os dados do modelo climático corrigidos, com todos os métodos de correção de viés, apresentaram valores similares aos obtidos com os dados climáticos observados. Por fim, foram avaliados os mapas dos impactos dos cenários de mudanças climáticas sobre a média e o desvio padrão da produtividade agrícola simulada. Os resultados com os cenários climáticos gerados através do método Delta resultou em uma subestimativa dos impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre o rendimento médio e na variabilidade interanual da produção de soja simulada pelo modelo CROPGRO-Soybean. As anomalias do rendimento com os dados originais do RegCM4 apresentaram diferenças em relação aos resultados com correção de viés, atingindo diferenças de 40%.

Evaluation of the regional climate model RegCM4.7 over the Carpathian region for very wet and average years

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tímea Kalmár ◽  
Ildikó Pieczka ◽  
Rita Pongrácz
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Carpathian Region

&lt;p&gt;Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables in many aspects due to its key impact on agriculture, water management, etc. However, it remains a challenge for climate models to realistically simulate the regional patterns, temporal variations, and intensity of precipitation. The difficulty arises from the complexity of precipitation processes within the atmosphere stemming from cloud microphysics, cumulus convection, large-scale circulations, planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, and many others. This is especially true for heterogeneous surfaces with complex orography such as the Carpathian region. &amp;#160;Thus, the Carpathian Basin, with its surrounding mountains, requires higher model resolution, along with different parameterizations, compared to more homogenous regions. The aim of the study is to reproduce the historical precipitation pattern through testing the parameterization of surface processes. The appropriate representations of land surface component in climate models are essential for the simulation of surface and subsurface runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, PBL strongly influences temperature, moisture, and wind through the turbulent transfer of air mass. The current study focuses on the newest model version of RegCM (RegCM4.7), with which we carry out simulations using different parameterization schemes over the Carpathian region. We investigate the effects of land-surface schemes (i.e. BATS - Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme and CLM4.5 - Community Land Model version 4.5) in the regional climate model. Studies over different regions have shown that CLM offers improvements in terms of land&amp;#8211;atmosphere exchanges of moisture and energy and associated surface climate feedbacks compared with BATS. Our aim includes evaluating whether this is the case for the Carpathian region.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Four 1-year-long experiments both for 1981 and 2010 (excluding the spin-up time) are completed using the same domain, initial and lateral atmospheric boundary data conditions (i.e. ERA-Interim), with a 10 km spatial resolution. These years were chosen because 1981 was a normal year in terms of precipitation, while 2010 was the wettest year in Hungary from the beginning of the 20th century. We carry out a detailed analysis of RegCM outputs focusing not only on standard climatological variables (precipitation and temperature), but also on additional meteorological variables, which have important roles in the water cycle (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration). The simulations are compared with the CARPATCLIM observed, homogenised, gridded dataset and other databases (ESA CCI Soil Moisture Product New Version Release (v04.5) and Surface Solar Radiation Data Set - Heliosat (SARAH)). It is found that the simulated near-surface temperature and precipitation are better represented in the CLM scheme than in the BATS when compared with observations, both over the lowland and mountainous area. The model simulations also show that the precipitation is overestimated more over mountainous area in 2010 than in 1981.&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling Luaran Global Climate Model (GCM) Menggunakan Model REGCM3 untuk Proyeksi Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Indramayu

Agromet ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Syamsu Dwi Jadmiko ◽  
Akhmad Faqih
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Daily Rainfall

Future rainfall projection can be predicted by using Global Climate Model (GCM). In spite of low resolution, we are not able specifically to describe a local or regional information. Therefore, we applied downscaling technique of GCM output using Regional Climate Model (RCM). In this case, Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to accomplish this purpose. RegCM3 is regional climate model which atmospheric properties are calculated by solving equations of motion and thermodynamics. Thus, RegCM3 is also called as dynamic downscaling model. RegCM3 has reliable capability to evaluate local or regional climate in high spatial resolution up to 10 × 10 km. In this study, dynamically downscaling techniques was applied to produce high spatial resolution (20 × 20 km) from GCM EH5OM output which commonly has rough spatial resolution (1.875<sup>o</sup> × 1.875<sup>o</sup>). Simulation show that future rainfall in Indramayu is relatively decreased compared to the baseline condition. Decreased rainfall generally occurs during the dry season (July-June-August/JJA) in a range 10-20%. Study of extreme daily rainfall indicates that there is no significant increase or decrease value.

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