Geographic distribution of global climate zones under future scenarios

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (12) ◽  
pp. 4327-4334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianliang Zhang ◽  
Xiaodong Yan ◽  
Zhenju Chen
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Zones

Global climate changes over time shaping the environmental niche distribution of Octopus insularis (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) in the Atlantic Ocean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Françoise D Lima ◽  
Luis Enrique Ángeles-González ◽  
Tatiana S Leite ◽  
Sergio MQ Lima
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Trophic Chain ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Over Time

In the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus insularis Leite and Haimovici, 2008 inhabits warm and shallow habitats, where it is one of the main targets of cephalopod fisheries. Considering the current trend of increase of increasing sea-water temperature, warm-water species are expected to expand their geographic distribution range. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is an important tool to help describe likely changes in geographic distribution patterns of a species in many climatic scenarios. To evaluate the changes of O. insularis distribution over time, the Maximum Entropy approach was used, which estimated a suitable climatic niche for Octopus under five scenarios of global climate changes. Six environmental layers were chosen to model the modern suitable climatic niche of O. insularis and four variables were used for past and future scenarios. The ENM in different climatic scenarios showed good validation and pointed out an increase of the suitable niche for O. insularis settlement, from Last Glacial Maximum (21 Kya) up to future scenarios. In the future projections, the availability of species suitable niche will potentially increase in Tropical Atlantic compared to the current distribution. In addition, the modeling pointed out the possibility of an expansion from the species current range to Temperate Northern Atlantic, Temperate South America, and Temperate South Africa. This may cause potential threats, such as possible extinction of endemic species, habitat displacement of native octopuses, reorganizations in the trophic chain.

Global climate changes over time shape the environmental niche distribution of Octopus insularis in the Atlantic Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 652 ◽  
pp. 111-121
Author(s):  
FD Lima ◽  
LE Ángeles-González ◽  
TS Leite ◽  
SMQ Lima
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Seawater Temperature ◽  
Trophic Chain ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Over Time

In the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus insularis (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) Leite and Haimovici, 2008 inhabits warm and shallow habitats, where it is one of the main targets of cephalopod fisheries. Considering the current trend of increasing seawater temperature, warm-water species are expected to expand their geographic distribution ranges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is an important tool to help describe likely changes in geographic distribution patterns of a species in different climatic scenarios. To evaluate changes in the distribution of Octopus insularis over time, the maximum entropy approach was used, which estimated a suitable climatic niche for Octopus under 5 scenarios of global climate change. Four environmental variables were chosen to model the suitable climatic niche of O. insularis in the present, past, and future scenarios. The ENM in different climatic scenarios showed good validation and pointed out an increase of the suitable niche for O. insularis settlement, from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya) up to future scenarios. In the future projections, suitable niche space will potentially increase in the tropical Atlantic compared to the current distribution. Modeling pointed out the possibility of expansion from the current range of the species to the temperate northern Atlantic, temperate South America, and temperate South Africa. This may cause potential threats, such as possible extinction of endemic species, habitat displacement of native octopuses, and reorganizations in the trophic chain.

scholarly journals Reviewing estimates of the basic reproduction number for dengue, Zika and chikungunya across global climate zones

2020 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 109114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Liu ◽  
Kate Lillepold ◽  
Jan C. Semenza ◽  
Yesim Tozan ◽  
Mikkel B.M. Quam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

scholarly journals Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asia monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeong-Bae Kim ◽  
Deg-Hyo Bae
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Global Mean Temperature

Abstract. The changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asia monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming targets of global mean temperature above preindustrial levels based on a representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The subregions in this domain are defined by the Köppen climate classification method to identify regional climate characteristics. The change patterns of long-term hydroclimatic mean and hydroclimatic extreme among subregions are compared based on the multimodel ensemble (MME) of selected five global climate models (GCMs). Each GCM is bias corrected and then used as a meteorological forcing for a hydrological model. To simulate how the hydrologic system responds to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets, we select the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. The results of temperature extremes show significant change patterns over all climate zones. As the globe warms, the increasing warm extremes and the decreasing cold extremes with a high robustness occur more frequently over Asia. Meanwhile, changes in precipitation and runoff averages (and low runoff extremes) show large spatial variations in change patterns with little robustness based on intermodel agreement. Global warming is expected to significantly intensify maximum precipitation extremes in all climate zones. Regardless of regional climate characteristics, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under 2.0 °C compare to 1.5 °C warming scenario and cause the likelihood of flood risk. The spatial extent and magnitude of change patterns in runoff are modulated by those of change patterns in precipitation. More importantly, an extra 0.5 °C of global warming also leads to amplified change signals and more robust change patterns in hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study demonstrate that the clear changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes under warmer conditions over Asia, and hydroclimatic sensitivities differ based on regional climate characteristics.

scholarly journals Future scenarios (2021-2050) of extreme precipitation events that trigger landslides – a case study of the Paraitinga River watershed, SP, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Cesar da Silva ◽  
Rodolfo Moreda Mendes ◽  
Gilberto Fisch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Land Use And Cover

Global climate change and the consequent occurrence of extreme events will impact societies on a large-scale, with intense rainfall tending to trigger a greater number of hazards caused by climatic events, especially landslides. The incidence of this type of event is conditioned by the combination of several environmental and human factors, such as land use and cover patterns, geomorphological characteristics, and extreme climate. This study analyzed, through the classification of land use and cover and simulation of rainfall, future scenarios in the Paraitinga River watershed, in the southeastern region of Brazil. Precipitation data were used from the MIROC5/Eta model, using the scenario RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and comparing data from past (1971-2000) and future (2021-2050) periods. The results estimate an increase in consecutive dry days and intense and very intense rainfall, pointing to heavy and concentrated rainfall in the future. An increase of 31.8% in accumulated precipitation over 72 hours that triggers landslides was also predicted, and this increase encompasses 41.6% of the areas of medium and high frequency of incidence of this type of geological event in the study area.

scholarly journals Geographic Distribution Shift of Invasive Plant Austroeupatorium inulifolium in the Future Climate Projection

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Angga Yudaputra ◽  
Izu Andry Fijridiyanto ◽  
Inggit Puji Astuti ◽  
Rizmoon Nurul Zulkarnaen ◽  
Ade Yuswandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Invasive Plant Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Occurrence Records

Aims: This study aims to predict the future geographic distribution shift of invasive plant species Austroeupathorium inulifolium as the impact of global climate change. Study Design: The rising temperature and precipitation change lead to the geographic distribution shift of organisms. A. inulifolium belongs to invasive plant species that often causes a substantial economic loss and ecological degradation in the invaded areas. Modelling of species distribution using the climate-based model could be used to understand the geographic distribution shift of invasive species in the future scenario under global climate change. Place and Duration of Study: Center for Plant Conservation and Botanic Gardens – LIPI and 6 months. Methodology: The total 2228 of occurrence records were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The seven climatic variables were selected from 19 variables using a pairwise correlation test (vifcor) with a threshold >0.7. The ensemble model was used by combining Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Results: Both two models are well-performed either using AUC or TSS evaluation methods. RF and SVM have AUC >0.95, and TSS >0.8. The predicted current distribution tends to have larger distribution areas compared to observed occurrence records. The predicted future distribution seems to be shifted in several parts of North America and Europe. Conclusion: The geographic distribution of invasive plant species A. inulifolium will be shifted to the Northern part of globe in 2090. Mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter are the two most important variables that determine the distribution pattern of the A. inulifolium. The predictive distribution pattern of invasive plant A. inulifolium would be important to provide information about the impact of climate change to the geographic distribution shift of this species.

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