Causes of uncertainty in China's net primary production over the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 2323-2334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Yongwen Liu ◽  
Sarah Dantec-Nédélec ◽  
Catherine Ottlé
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

scholarly journals Continued increase in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> seasonal amplitude in the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth System Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 779-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Zhao ◽  
N. Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Amplitude Increase ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Superimposed on the continued increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration is a prominent seasonal cycle. Ground-based and aircraft-based observation records show that the amplitude of this seasonal cycle has increased. Will this trend continue into future? In this paper, we analyzed simulations for historical (1850–2005) and future (RCP8.5, 2006–2100) periods produced by 10 Earth System Models participating the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our results show a model consensus that the increase of CO2 seasonal amplitude continues throughout the 21st century. The seasonal amplitude of the multi-model global mean detrended CO2 increases from 1.6 ppm during 1961–1970 to 2.7 ppm during 2081–2090, and the mean relative amplitude increases by 62 ± 19%. This increase is dominated by a 68 ± 25% increase from Net Biosphere Production (NBP). We then show the increase of NBP amplitude mainly comes from enhanced ecosystem uptake during Northern Hemisphere growing season under future CO2 and temperature conditions. Separate analyses on net primary production and respiration reveal that enhanced ecosystem carbon uptake contributes to about 75% of the amplitude increase. Stimulated by higher CO2 concentration and high-latitude warming, enhanced net primary production likely outcompetes increased respiration at higher temperature. Zonal distribution and the spatial pattern of NBP change suggest that regions north of 45° N dominate the amplitude increase. We also found that changes of NBP and its seasonal amplitude are significantly (R = 0.73, p < 0.05) correlated – models that simulate a stronger carbon uptake tend to show a larger change of NBP seasonal amplitude.

scholarly journals Evaluating the ocean biogeochemical components of Earth system models using atmospheric potential oxygen and ocean color data

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. D. Nevison ◽  
M. Manizza ◽  
R. F. Keeling ◽  
M. Kahru ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Ocean Color ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Color Data ◽  
Ocean Biogeochemistry ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Potential Oxygen

Abstract. The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at a range of mid- to high-latitude surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the output of six Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The simulated air–sea O2 fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Three of the ocean biogeochemistry models tested are able to reproduce the observed APO cycles at most sites, to within the large TransCom3-era ATM uncertainty used here, while the other three generally are not. Net primary production (NPP) and net community production (NCP), as estimated from satellite ocean color data, provide additional constraints, albeit more with respect to the seasonal phasing of ocean model productivity than overall magnitude. The present analysis suggests that, of the tested ocean biogeochemistry models, the community ecosystem model (CESM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ESM2M are best able to capture the observed APO seasonal cycle at both northern and southern hemispheric sites. In most models, discrepancies with observed APO can be attributed to the underestimation of NPP, deep ventilation or both in the northern oceans.

scholarly journals Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (3) ◽  
pp. 903-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongwen Liu ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Mengtian Huang ◽  
Yitong Yao ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
System Models ◽  
Earth System Models

scholarly journals Oceanic primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 4321-4349
Author(s):  
Damien Couespel ◽  
Marina Lévy ◽  
Laurent Bopp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Nutrient Transport ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Marine Biomass ◽  
Fish Catch ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. The decline in ocean primary production is one of the most alarming consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This decline could indeed lead to a decrease in marine biomass and fish catch, as highlighted by recent policy-relevant reports. Because of computational constraints, current Earth system models used to project ocean primary production under global warming scenarios have to parameterize flows occurring below the resolution of their computational grid (typically 1∘). To overcome these computational constraints, we use an ocean biogeochemical model in an idealized configuration representing a mid-latitude double-gyre circulation and perform global warming simulations under an increasing horizontal resolution (from 1 to 1/27∘) and under a large range of parameter values for the eddy parameterization employed in the coarse-resolution configuration. In line with projections from Earth system models, all our simulations project a marked decline in net primary production in response to the global warming forcing. Whereas this decline is only weakly sensitive to the eddy parameters in the eddy-parameterized coarse 1∘ resolution simulations, the simulated decline in primary production in the subpolar gyre is halved at the finest eddy-resolving resolution (−12 % at 1/27∘ vs. −26 % at 1∘) at the end of the 70-year-long global warming simulations. This difference stems from the high sensitivity of the sub-surface nutrient transport to model resolution. Although being only one piece of a much broader and more complicated response of the ocean to climate change, our results call for improved representation of the role of eddies in nutrient transport below the seasonal mixed layer to better constrain the future evolution of marine biomass and fish catch potential.

scholarly journals Oceanic Primary production decline halved in eddy-resolving simulations of global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien Couespel ◽  
Marina Lévy ◽  
Laurent Bopp
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Nutrient Transport ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
Marine Biomass ◽  
Fish Catch ◽  
Earth System Models

&lt;p&gt;The decline in ocean primary production is one of the most alarming consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This decline could indeed lead to a decrease in marine biomass and fish catch, as highlighted by recent policy-relevant reports. Because of computational constraints, current Earth System Models used to project ocean primary production under global warming scenarios have to parameterize flows occurring below the resolution of their computational grid (typically 1&amp;#176;). To overcome these computational constraints, we use an ocean biogeochemical model in an idealized configuration representing a mid-latitude double-gyre circulation, and perform global warming simulations under increasing horizontal resolution &amp;#160;(from 1&amp;#176; to 1/27&amp;#176;) and under a large range of parameter values for the eddy parameterization employed in the coarse resolution configuration. In line with projections from Earth System Models, all our simulations project a marked decline in net primary production in response to the global warming forcing. Whereas this decline is only weakly sensitive to the eddy parameters in the eddy-parametrized coarse resolution, the simulated decline in primary production is halved at the finest eddy-resolving resolution (-12% at 1/27&amp;#176; vs -26 at 1&amp;#176;). This difference stems from the high sensitivity of the subsurface nutrient transport to model resolution. Our results call for improved representation of the role of eddies on nutrient transport below the seasonal mixed-layer to better constrain the future evolution of marine biomass and fish catch potential for decision-making.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Evaluating the ocean biogeochemical components of earth system models using atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) and ocean color data

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 8485-8529
Author(s):  
C. D. Nevison ◽  
M. Manizza ◽  
R. F. Keeling ◽  
M. Kahru ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Ocean Color ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Color Data ◽  
Ocean Biogeochemistry ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Potential Oxygen

Abstract. The observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) at a range of mid to high latitude surface monitoring sites are compared to those inferred from the output of 6 Earth System Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The simulated air–sea O2 fluxes are translated into APO seasonal cycles using a matrix method that takes into account atmospheric transport model (ATM) uncertainty among 13 different ATMs. Half of the ocean biogeochemistry models tested are able to reproduce the observed APO cycles at most sites, to within the current large ATM uncertainty, while the other half generally are not. Net Primary Production (NPP) and net community production (NCP), as estimated from satellite ocean color data, provide additional constraints, albeit more with respect to the seasonal phasing of ocean model productivity than the overall magnitude. The present analysis suggests that, of the tested ocean biogeochemistry models, CESM and GFDL ESM2M are best able to capture the observed APO seasonal cycle at both Northern and Southern Hemisphere sites. In the northern oceans, the comparison to observed APO suggests that most models tend to underestimate NPP or deep ventilation or both.

scholarly journals Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 18969-19004 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. E. O. Todd-Brown ◽  
J. T. Randerson ◽  
F. Hopkins ◽  
V. Arora ◽  
T. Hajima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Decomposition Rate ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Organic Carbon Storage ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Soil is currently thought to be a sink for carbon; however, the response of this sink to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change is uncertain. In this study, we analyzed soil organic carbon (SOC) changes from 11 Earth system models (ESMs) under the historical and high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5) scenarios between 1850 and 2100. We used a reduced complexity model based on temperature and moisture sensitivities to analyze the drivers of SOC losses. ESM estimates of SOC change over the 21st century (2090–2099 minus 1997–2006) ranged from a loss of 72 Pg C to a gain 253 Pg C with a multi-model mean gain of 63 Pg C. All ESMs showed cumulative increases in both NPP (15% to 59%) and decreases in SOC turnover times (15% to 28%) over the 21st century. Most of the model-to-model variation in SOC change was explained by initial SOC stocks combined with the relative changes in soil inputs and decomposition rates (R2 = 0.88, p<0.01). Between models, increases in decomposition rate were well explained by a combination of initial decomposition rate, ESM-specific Q10-factors, and changes in soil temperature (R2 = 0.80, p<0.01). All SOC changes depended on sustained increases in NPP with global change (primarily driven by increasing CO2) and conversion of additional plant inputs into SOC. Most ESMs omit potential constraints on SOC storage, such as priming effects, nutrient availability, mineral surface stabilization and aggregate formation. Future models that represent these constraints are likely to estimate smaller increases in SOC storage during the 21st century.

scholarly journals Intercomparison of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Carbon Use Efficiency Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongmin Kim ◽  
Myong-In Lee ◽  
Su-Jong Jeong ◽  
Jungho Im ◽  
Dong Hyun Cha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Carbon Fluxes ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
System Models ◽  
Carbon Use Efficiency ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.

scholarly journals Projected Shifts in 21st Century Sardine Distribution and Catch in the California Current

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerome Fiechter ◽  
Mercedes Pozo Buil ◽  
Michael G. Jacox ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Kenneth A. Rose
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
California Current ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Sardine Population ◽  
End To End ◽  
Earth System Models

Predicting changes in the abundance and distribution of small pelagic fish species in response to anthropogenic climate forcing is of paramount importance due to the ecological and socioeconomic importance of these species, especially in eastern boundary current upwelling regions. Coastal upwelling systems are notorious for the wide range of spatial (from local to basin) and temporal (from days to decades) scales influencing their physical and biogeochemical environments and, thus, forage fish habitat. Bridging those scales can be achieved by using high-resolution regional models that integrate global climate forcing downscaled from coarser resolution earth system models. Here, “end-to-end” projections for 21st century sardine population dynamics and catch in the California Current system (CCS) are generated by coupling three dynamically downscaled earth system model solutions to an individual-based fish model and an agent-based fishing fleet model. Simulated sardine population biomass during 2000–2100 exhibits primarily low-frequency (decadal) variability, and a progressive poleward shift driven by thermal habitat preference. The magnitude of poleward displacement varies noticeably under lower and higher warming conditions (500 and 800 km, respectively). Following the redistribution of the sardine population, catch is projected to increase by 50–70% in the northern CCS and decrease by 30–70% in the southern and central CCS. However, the late-century increase in sardine abundance (and hence, catch) in the northern CCS exhibits a large ensemble spread and is not statistically identical across the three downscaled projections. Overall, the results illustrate the benefit of using dynamical downscaling from multiple earth system models as input to high-resolution regional end-to-end (“physics to fish”) models for projecting population responses of higher trophic organisms to global climate change.

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