Use of a grid-based hydrological model and regional climate model outputs to assess changing flood risk

2007 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 1657-1671 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Bell ◽  
A. L. Kay ◽  
R. G. Jones ◽  
R. J. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Grid Based

scholarly journals High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation in Morocco

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 5687-5737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
D. Ruelland ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
R. Bouaicha ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Hydrological Impact ◽  
Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of these high-resolution simulations. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of a catchment located in North Morocco, using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 km and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30% to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15% and −19% and for temperature between +1.28°C and +1.87°C.

scholarly journals High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3721-3739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
D. Ruelland ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
R. Bouaicha ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Hydrological Impact ◽  
Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

scholarly journals Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias corrected regional climate model input

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 4589-4618 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
P. Kabat ◽  
H. W. ter Maat ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
A. H. Weerts
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
River Meuse ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

Abstract. Studies have demonstrated that precipitation on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased in the last decades and that it is likely that this trend will continue. This will have an influence on discharge of the river Meuse. The use of bias correction methods is important when the effect of precipitation change on river discharge is studied. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of using two different bias correction methods on output from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation. In this study a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) run is used, forced by ECHAM-5 under the condition of the SRES-A1B emission scenario, with a 25 km horizontal resolution. The RACMO2 runs contain a systematic precipitation bias on which two bias correction methods are applied. The first method corrects for the wet day fraction and wet day average (WD bias correction) and the second method corrects for the mean and coefficient of variance (MV bias correction). The WD bias correction initially corrects well for the average, but it appears that too many successive precipitation days were removed with this correction. The second method performed less well on average bias correction, but the temporal precipitation pattern was better. Subsequently, the discharge was calculated by using RACMO2 output as forcing to the HBV-96 hydrological model. A large difference was found between the simulated discharge of the uncorrected RACMO2 run, the WD bias corrected run and the MV bias corrected run. These results show the importance of an appropriate bias correction.

scholarly journals Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 532-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Bell ◽  
A. L. Kay ◽  
R. G. Jones ◽  
R. J. Moore
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flow Routing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Production ◽  
Grid Based

Abstract. A grid-based approach to river flow modelling has been developed for regional assessments of the impact of environmental change on hydrologically sensitive systems. The approach also provides a means of assessing, and providing feedback on, the hydrological performance of the land-surface component of a regional climate model (RCM). When combined with information on the evolution of climate, the model can give estimates of the impact of future climate change on river flows and flooding. The high-resolution flow routing and runoff-production model is designed for use with RCM-derived rainfall and potential evaporation (PE), although other sources of gridded rainfall and PE can be employed. Called the "Grid-to-Grid Model", or G2G, it can be configured on grids of different resolution and coverage (a 1 km grid over the UK is used here). The model can simulate flow on an area-wide basis as well as providing estimates of fluvial discharges for input to shelf-sea and ocean models. Configuration of the flow routing model on a relatively high resolution 1 km grid allows modelled river flows to be compared with gauged observations for a variety of catchments across the UK. Modelled flows are also compared with those obtained from a catchment-based model, a parameter-generalised form of the Probability-Distributed Model (PDM) developed for assessing flood frequency. Using RCM re-analysis rainfall and PE as input, the G2G model performs well compared with measured flows at a daily time-step, particularly for high relief catchments. It performs less well for low-relief and groundwater-dominated regions because the dominant model control on runoff production is topography.

scholarly journals Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias corrected regional climate model input

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2387-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
P. Kabat ◽  
H. W. ter Maat ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
A. H. Weerts
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
River Meuse ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Climate Model

Abstract. Studies have demonstrated that precipitation on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased in the last decades and that it is likely that this trend will continue. This will have an influence on discharge of the river Meuse. The use of bias correction methods is important when the effect of precipitation change on river discharge is studied. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of using two different bias correction methods on output from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation. In this study a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) run is used, forced by ECHAM5/MPIOM under the condition of the SRES-A1B emission scenario, with a 25 km horizontal resolution. The RACMO2 runs contain a systematic precipitation bias on which two bias correction methods are applied. The first method corrects for the wet day fraction and wet day average (WD bias correction) and the second method corrects for the mean and coefficient of variance (MV bias correction). The WD bias correction initially corrects well for the average, but it appears that too many successive precipitation days were removed with this correction. The second method performed less well on average bias correction, but the temporal precipitation pattern was better. Subsequently, the discharge was calculated by using RACMO2 output as forcing to the HBV-96 hydrological model. A large difference was found between the simulated discharge of the uncorrected RACMO2 run, the WD bias corrected run and the MV bias corrected run. These results show the importance of an appropriate bias correction.

Simulations of a hydrological model as coupled to a regional climate model

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng Xinmin ◽  
Zhao Ming ◽  
Su Bingkai ◽  
Tang Jianping ◽  
Zheng Yiqun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate
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