scholarly journals Temperature trends in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Connections with sea surface temperatures and implications for water vapor and ozone

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (17) ◽  
pp. 9658-9672 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. I. Garfinkel ◽  
D. W. Waugh ◽  
L. D. Oman ◽  
L. Wang ◽  
M. M. Hurwitz
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Tropical Upper Troposphere

Impact of Changes in Climate and Halocarbons on Recent Lower Stratosphere Ozone and Temperature Trends

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 2599-2611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Lamarque ◽  
Susan Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Tropical Zone ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Abstract The primary focus of this paper is the analysis of the roles of long-term increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and sea surface temperatures (used as indicators of climate change) and man-made halocarbons (indicators of chemical ozone depletion linked to halogens) in explaining the observed trend of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and implications for related variables including temperature and tropopause height. Published estimates indicate a decrease of approximately 10% in observed ozone concentrations in this region between 1979 and 2005. Using a coupled chemistry–climate atmosphere model forced by observed sea surface temperatures and surface concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases and halocarbons, the authors show that the simulations display substantial decreases in tropical ozone that compare well in both latitudinal and vertical structure with those observed. Based on sensitivity simulations, the analysis indicates that the decreases in the lower stratospheric (85–50 hPa) tropical ozone distribution are mostly associated with increases in CO2 and sea surface temperatures, in contrast to those at higher latitudes, which are largely driven by halocarbon increases. Factors influencing temperature trends and tropopause heights in this region are also probed. It is shown that the modeled temperature trends in the lower tropical stratosphere are also associated with increases in CO2 and sea surface temperatures. Following the analysis of lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends, the secondary focus of this paper is on related changes in tropopause height. Much of the simulated tropopause rise in the tropical zone as measured by tropopause height is found to be linked to increases in sea surface temperatures and CO2, while increases in halocarbons dominate the tropopause height changes in the subtropics near 30°; both drivers thus affect different regions of the simulated changes in the position of the tropopause. Finally, it is shown that halocarbon increases dominate the changes in the width of the region where modeled total ozone displays tropical character (as indicated by low values of the column abundance). Hence the findings suggest that climate changes and halocarbon changes make different contributions to different metrics used to characterize tropical change.

scholarly journals The Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the Northern Winter Stratosphere: Ensemble Simulations with the MAECHAM5 Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3863-3881 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Manzini ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
M. Esch ◽  
L. Kornblueh ◽  
E. Roeckner
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Northern Winter ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The role of interannual variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric circulation is addressed by means of an ensemble of nine simulations performed with the middle atmosphere configuration of the ECHAM5 model forced with observed SSTs during the 20-yr period from 1980 to 1999. Results are compared to the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Three aspects have been considered: the influence of the interannual SST variations on the climatological mean state, the response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and the influence on systematic temperature changes. The strongest influence of SST variations has been found for the warm ENSO events considered. Namely, it has been found that the large-scale pattern associated with the extratropical tropospheric response to the ENSO phenomenon during northern winter enhances the forcing and the vertical propagation into the stratosphere of the quasi-stationary planetary waves emerging from the troposphere. This enhanced planetary wave disturbance thereafter results in a polar warming of a few degrees in the lower stratosphere in late winter and early spring. Consequently, the polar vortex is weakened, and the warm ENSO influence clearly emerges also in the zonal-mean flow. In contrast, the cold ENSO events considered do not appear to have an influence distinguishable from that of internal variability. It is also not straightforward to deduce the influence of the SSTs on the climatological mean state from the simulations performed, because the simulated internal variability of the stratosphere is large, a realistic feature. Moreover, the results of the ensemble of simulations provide weak to negligible evidence for the possibility that SST variations during the two decades considered are substantially contributing to changes in the polar temperature in the winter lower stratosphere.

Evolution of Water Vapor Concentrations and Stratospheric Age of Air in Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 905-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Austin ◽  
John Wilson ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Holger Vömel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Stratospheric water vapor concentrations and age of air are investigated in an ensemble of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the period from 1960 to 2005. Observed greenhouse gas concentrations, halogen concentrations, aerosol amounts, and sea surface temperatures are all specified in the model as time-varying fields. The results are compared with two experiments (time-slice runs) with constant forcings for the years 1960 and 2000, in which the sea surface temperatures are set to the same climatological values, aerosol concentrations are fixed at background levels, while greenhouse gas and halogen concentrations are set to the values for the relevant years. The time-slice runs indicate an increase in stratospheric water vapor from 1960 to 2000 due primarily to methane oxidation. The age of air is found to be significantly less in the year 2000 run than the 1960 run. The transient runs from 1960 to 2005 indicate broadly similar results: an increase in water vapor and a decrease in age of air. However, the results do not change gradually. The age of air decreases significantly only after about 1975, corresponding to the period of ozone reduction. The age of air is related to tropical upwelling, which determines the transport of methane into the stratosphere. Oxidation of increased methane from enhanced tropical upwelling results in higher water vapor amounts. In the model simulations, the rate of increase of stratospheric water vapor during the period of enhanced upwelling is up to twice the long-term mean. The concentration of stratospheric water vapor also increases following volcanic eruptions during the simulations.

Multimodel Analysis of the Water Vapor Feedback in the Tropical Upper Troposphere

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 5455-5464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Minschwaner ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler ◽  
Parnchai Sawaengphokhai
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Tropical Upper Troposphere

Abstract Relationships between the mean humidity in the tropical upper troposphere and tropical sea surface temperatures in 17 coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate models were investigated. This analysis builds on a prior study of humidity and surface temperature measurements that suggested an overall positive climate feedback by water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere whereby the mean specific humidity increases with warmer sea surface temperature (SST). The model results for present-day simulations show a large range in mean humidity, mean air temperature, and mean SST, but they consistently show increases in upper-tropospheric specific humidity with warmer SST. The model average increase in water vapor at 250 mb with convective mean SST is 44 ppmv K−1, with a standard deviation of 14 ppmv K−1. Furthermore, the implied feedback in the models is not as strong as would be the case if relative humidity remained constant in the upper troposphere. The model mean decrease in relative humidity is −2.3% ± 1.0% K−1 at 250 mb, whereas observations indicate decreases of −4.8% ± 1.7% K−1 near 215 mb. These two values agree within the respective ranges of uncertainty, indicating that current global climate models are simulating the observed behavior of water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere with reasonable accuracy.

Decadal change in summer precipitation over the east of Northwest China and its associations with atmospheric circulations and sea surface temperatures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Shang ◽  
Gaofeng Zhu ◽  
Ruolin Li ◽  
Jie Xu ◽  
Juan Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Decadal Variations

<p>As global warming has progressed, precipitation patterns over arid Northwest China have undergone significant change. In this study, changes in summer (JJA) precipitation over the eastern part of Northwest China (ENWC) from 1980 to 2014 were investigated using the China gridded monthly precipitation dataset (CN05.1). The results showed that summer precipitation over the ENWC experienced a decadal wet-to-dry shift in 1998. Westerlies played an important role in the upper atmospheric levels in terms of water vapor transport; the decadal variations in summer precipitation were principally controlled by the water vapor input from the ENWC's western boundary. In addition, the decadal variations in summer precipitation in the ENWC appear to be associated with a meridional teleconnection around 110°E and a zonal pattern over 45–60°N in the lower troposphere. These two teleconnections led to cyclonic anomalies in the ENWC and enhanced water vapor transport into the ENWC, resulting in above-normal precipitation during the 1989–1998 decadal period. Further, the warmer (colder) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the tropical Eastern Pacific correspond to the southward (northward) displacement of the Asian jet stream and a negative (positive) phase of the Silk Road pattern, resulting in a wet (dry) ENWC. Moreover, the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific may affect summer precipitation over the ENWC via a zonal teleconnection in the middle troposphere. Details about the results will be presented in the conference.</p>

scholarly journals First airborne water vapor lidar measurements in the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitudes lower stratosphere: accuracy evaluation and intercomparisons with other instruments

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (17) ◽  
pp. 5245-5261 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Kiemle ◽  
M. Wirth ◽  
A. Fix ◽  
G. Ehret ◽  
U. Schumann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Average Distance ◽  
Tropical Convection ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Research Aircraft ◽  
Tropical Upper Troposphere

Abstract. In the tropics, deep convection is the major source of uncertainty in water vapor transport to the upper troposphere and into the stratosphere. Although accurate measurements in this region would be of first order importance to better understand the processes that govern stratospheric water vapor concentrations and trends in the context of a changing climate, they are sparse because of instrumental shortcomings and observational challenges. Therefore, the Falcon research aircraft of the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) flew a zenith-viewing water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL) during the Tropical Convection, Cirrus and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment (TROCCINOX) in 2004 and 2005 in Brazil. The measurements were performed alternatively on three water vapor absorption lines of different strength around 940 nm. These are the first aircraft DIAL measurements in the tropical upper troposphere and in the mid-latitudes lower stratosphere. Sensitivity analyses reveal an accuracy of 5% between altitudes of 8 and 16 km. This is confirmed by intercomparisons with the Fast In-situ Stratospheric Hygrometer (FISH) and the Fluorescent Advanced Stratospheric Hygrometer (FLASH) onboard the Russian M-55 Geophysica research aircraft during five coordinated flights. The average relative differences between FISH and DIAL amount to −3%±8% and between FLASH and DIAL to −8%±14%, negative meaning DIAL is more humid. The average distance between the probed air masses was 129 km. The DIAL is found to have no altitude- or latitude-dependent bias. A comparison with the balloon ascent of a laser absorption spectrometer gives an average difference of 0%±19% at a distance of 75 km. Six tropical DIAL under-flights of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on board ENVISAT reveal a mean difference of −8%±49% at an average distance of 315 km. While the comparison with MIPAS is somewhat less significant due to poorer comparison conditions, the agreement with the in-situ hygrometers provides evidence of the excellent quality of FISH, FLASH and DIAL. Most DIAL profiles exhibit a smooth exponential decrease of water vapor mixing ratio in the tropical upper troposphere to lower stratosphere transition. The hygropause with a minimum mixing ratio of 2.5 µmol/mol is found between 15 and 17 km. A high-resolution (2 km horizontal, 0.2 km vertical) DIAL cross section through the anvil outflow of tropical convection shows that the ambient humidity is increased by a factor of three across 100 km.

scholarly journals Conquering Uncertainties in Tropical Climate Forecasts

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Betz
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
The Tropics

The key to better predictions of atmospheric temperature trends in the tropics may lie in more accurate measurements of sea surface temperatures.

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