scholarly journals Combining observations and numerical model results to improve estimates of hypoxic volume within the Chesapeake Bay, USA

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (10) ◽  
pp. 4924-4944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron J. Bever ◽  
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs ◽  
Carl T. Friedrichs ◽  
Malcolm E. Scully ◽  
Lyon W. J. Lanerolle
2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 1435-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm E. Scully

Abstract Extensive hypoxia remains a problem in Chesapeake Bay, despite some reductions in estimated nutrient inputs. An analysis of a 58-yr time series of summer hypoxia reveals that a significant fraction of the interannual variability observed in Chesapeake Bay is correlated to changes in summertime wind direction that are the result of large-scale climate variability. Beginning around 1980, the surface pressure associated with the summer Bermuda high has weakened, favoring winds from a more westerly direction, the direction most correlated with observed hypoxia. Regression analysis suggests that the long-term increase in hypoxic volume observed in this dataset is only accounted for when both changes in wind direction and nitrogen loading are considered.


2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (9) ◽  
pp. 6392-6407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron J. Bever ◽  
Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs ◽  
Carl T. Friedrichs ◽  
Malcolm E. Scully

Author(s):  
Dong Liang ◽  
Geneviève M. Nesslage ◽  
Michael J Wilberg ◽  
Thomas J. Miller

Moving toward ecosystem-based fisheries management requires integration of biotic and abiotic factors into our understanding of population dynamics. Using blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in the Chesapeake Bay as a model system, we applied Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) to understand the influence of climatic, water quality and biotic variables on estimates of key indices of blue crab recruitment for 1990‐2017. Variables included the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Susquehanna River discharge, wind forcing, hypoxic volume, submerged aquatic vegetation and the catch-per-unit-effort of striped bass (Morone saxatilis). Direct effects of age‐1+ crabs and summer salinity on recruitment were significant. Phase of the NAO in summer and spring, summer and winter discharge, and hypoxic volume indirectly affected the recruitment. A simulation study shows that GGM model selection achieved nominal coverage and outperformed structural equation models (SEM) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). GGMs have the potential to improve ecosystem-based management of blue crabs in Chesapeake Bay. Specifically, the approach can be used to examine ecosystem impacts on blue crab productivity and to improve forecasts of blue crab recruitment.


2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1348-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Liu ◽  
George B. Arhonditsis ◽  
Craig A. Stow ◽  
Donald Scavia

1988 ◽  
Vol 1 (21) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Y. Peter Sheng ◽  
T.S. Wu ◽  
P.F. Wang

A time-dependent three-dimensional numerical model of coastal and estuarine circulation, which allows the use of generalized curvilinear grids to resolve the complex shoreline geometry and bathymetry, has been developed. Model formulation is briefly presented, followed by example model applications to such water bodies as Lake Okeechobee, James River and Chesapeake Bay.


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