scholarly journals Paleoseismology of the southern Panamint Valley fault: Implications for regional earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard in southern California

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. 5126-5146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee J. McAuliffe ◽  
James F. Dolan ◽  
Eric Kirby ◽  
Chris Rollins ◽  
Ben Haravitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Regional Earthquake

A multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard in southern California

1994 ◽  
Vol 84 (5) ◽  
pp. 1293-1309
Author(s):  
Steven N. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Moderate Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Potential ◽  
Seismic Moment Release

Abstract A serious obstacle facing seismic hazard assessment in southern California has been the characterization of earthquake potential in areas far from known major faults where historical seismicity and paleoseismic data are sparse. This article attempts to fill the voids in earthquake statistics by generating “master model” maps of seismic hazard that blend information from geology, paleoseismology, space geodesy, observational seismology, and synthetic seismicity. The current model suggests that about 40% of the seismic moment release in southern California could occur in widely scattered areas away from the principal faults. As a result, over a 30-yr period, nearly all of the region from the Pacific Ocean to 50 km east of the San Andreas Fault has a greater than 50/50 chance of experiencing moderate shaking of 0.1 g or greater, and about a 1 in 20 chance of suffering levels exceeding 0.3 g. For most of the residents of southern California, thelion's share of hazard from moderate earthquake shaking over a 30-yr period derives from smaller, closer, more frequent earthquakes in the magnitude range (5 ≦ M ≦ 7) rather than from large San Andreas ruptures, whatever their likelihood.

scholarly journals Time independent seismic hazard analysis of Greece deduced from Bayesian statistics

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 129-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Tsapanos ◽  
G. A. Papadopoulos ◽  
O. Ch. Galanis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Bayesian Statistics ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Seismogenic Sources ◽  
Earthquake Resistant Design ◽  
Seismogenic Source ◽  
Earthquake Resistant ◽  
Of Greece

Abstract. A Bayesian statistics approach is applied in the seismogenic sources of Greece and the surrounding area in order to assess seismic hazard, assuming that the earthquake occurrence follows the Poisson process. The Bayesian approach applied supplies the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude of Ms = 6.0 will be exceeded in time intervals of 10, 20 and 75 years. We also produced graphs which present the different seismic hazard in the seismogenic sources examined in terms of varying probability which is useful for engineering and civil protection purposes, allowing the designation of priority sources for earthquake-resistant design. It is shown that within the above time intervals the seismogenic source (4) called Igoumenitsa (in NW Greece and west Albania) has the highest probability to experience an earthquake with magnitude M > 6.0. High probabilities are found also for Ochrida (source 22), Samos (source 53) and Chios (source 56).

Evaluation of Ground-Motion Models for USGS Seismic Hazard Models Using Near-Source Instrumental Ground-Motion Recordings of the Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1529
Author(s):  
Daniel E. McNamara ◽  
Emily L. G. Wolin ◽  
Morgan P. Moschetti ◽  
Eric M. Thompson ◽  
Peter M. Powers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Site Amplification ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Tectonically Active ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT We evaluated the performance of 12 ground-motion models (GMMs) for earthquakes in the tectonically active shallow crustal region of southern California using instrumental ground-motion observations from the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence (Mw 4.0–7.1). The sequence was well recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network and rapid response portable aftershock monitoring stations. Ground-motion recordings of this size and proximity are rare, valuable, and independent of GMM development, allowing us to evaluate the predictive powers of GMMs. We first compute total residuals and compare the probability density functions, means, and standard deviations of the observed and predicted ground motions. Next we use the total residuals as inputs to the probabilistic scoring method (log-likelihood [LLH]). The LLH method provides a single score that can be used to weight GMMs in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) logic trees. We also explore GMM performance for a range of earthquake magnitudes, wave propagation distances, and site characteristics. We find that the Next Generation Attenuation West-2 (NGAW2) active crust GMMs perform well for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence and thus validate their use in the 2018 USGS NSHM. However, significant ground-motion residual scatter remains unmodeled by NGAW2 GMMs due to complexities such as local site amplification and source directivity. Results from this study will inform logic-tree weights for updates to the USGS National NSHM. Results from this study support the use of nonergodic GMMs that can account for regional attenuation and site variations to minimize epistemic uncertainty in USGS NSHMs.

A closer look at the September 16, 1732, Montreal earthquake

1981 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 539-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Leblanc
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
The Other ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Magnitude Range ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Epicentral Intensity

The September 16, 1732, earthquake ranks among the three largest events in the western Quebec zone of earthquake occurrence and thus plays a controlling role in seismic hazard studies of the region. Its epicentral intensity has been estimated differently by various authors of earthquake catalogues, mostly because limited information was available. Recently, additional evidence was uncovered and evaluated. It suggests that an epicentral intensity VIII (modified Mercalli) is adequately representative of the damage observed in Montreal and agrees well with the other distant felt reports. On that basis, the intensity IX (MM) found in some catalogues should be revised; on the other hand, the Montreal location appears to be the most acceptable. It is proposed that the event be also characterized in terms of an estimated magnitude range, i.e., 5.6–6.0 [Formula: see text].

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

2010 ◽  
Vol 168 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 367-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Graves ◽  
Thomas H. Jordan ◽  
Scott Callaghan ◽  
Ewa Deelman ◽  
Edward Field ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Hazard Model

scholarly journals Seismic hazard assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb region

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Jiménez ◽  
M. García-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Common Procedure ◽  
Fruitful Cooperation ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map ◽  
First Time ◽  
Regional Earthquake

The contribution of the Ibero-Maghreb region to the global GSHAP map has been the result of a fruitful cooperation among the participants in the established Working Group including representatives from Algeria, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Tunisia and coordinated by ICTJA-CSIC, Spain. For the first time, a map of regional seismic source zones is presented, and agreement on a common procedure for hazard computation in the region has been achieved. The computed Ibero-Maghreb seismic hazard map constitutes the first step towards a uniform hazard assessment for the region. Further joint regional efforts are still needed for earthquake hazard studies based on a homogeneous regional earthquake catalogue. Ongoing initiatives in relation to seismic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean should profit both from these results and the established cooperation among different groups in the region as well as contribute to future regional studies.

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