scholarly journals Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance

2002 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 457-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen ◽  
Neil Shephard
2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350005 ◽  
Author(s):  
LORENZO TORRICELLI

In the setting of a stochastic volatility model, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This provides a pricing tool for European-style claims paying off at maturity a joint function of the underlying and its realized volatility or variance. We study the solution under various specific stochastic volatility models, give a formula for the computation of the delta and gamma of these claims, and introduce some new interesting payoffs that can be valued by means of the general pricing equation. Numerical results are given and compared to those from plain vanilla derivatives.


2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almut E.D. Veraart

Recent research has focused on modeling asset prices by Itô semimartingales. In such a modeling framework, the quadratic variation consists of a continuous and a jump component. This paper is about inference on the jump part of the quadratic variation, which can be estimated by the difference of realized variance and realized multipower variation. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it provides a bivariate asymptotic limit theory for realized variance and realized multipower variation in the presence of jumps. Second, this paper presents new, consistent estimators for the jump part of the asymptotic variance of the estimation bias. Eventually, this leads to a feasible asymptotic theory that is applicable in practice. Finally, Monte Carlo studies reveal a good finite sample performance of the proposed feasible limit theory.


Author(s):  
Peter P. Carr ◽  
Hélyette Geman ◽  
Dilip B. Madan ◽  
Marc Yor

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4173
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch

We use a dataset for the group of G7 countries and China to study the out-of-sample predictive value of uncertainty and its international spillovers for the realized variance of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate and Brent) over the sample period from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. Using the Lasso estimator, we found evidence that uncertainty and international spillovers had predictive value for the realized variance at intermediate (two quarters) and long (one year) forecasting horizons in several of the forecasting models that we studied. This result holds also for upside (good) and downside (bad) variance, and irrespective of whether we used a recursive or a rolling estimation window. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.


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