The conjunction fallacy: explanations of the linda problem by the theory of hints

2003 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Wolfgang Brachinger ◽  
Paul-Andr� Monney
Keyword(s):  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Linda Problem

scholarly journals Is the conjunction fallacy tied to probabilistic confirmation?

Synthese ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 184 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonah N. Schupbach
Keyword(s):  
Conjunction Fallacy

scholarly journals Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 238-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Brotherton ◽  
Christopher C. French
Keyword(s):  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Conspiracy Theories

scholarly journals On cognitive preferences and the plausibility of rule-based models

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (4) ◽  
pp. 853-898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Fürnkranz ◽  
Tomáš Kliegr ◽  
Heiko Paulheim
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
User Acceptance ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Recognition Heuristic ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Discriminative Models ◽  
Weak Preference ◽  
Simple Rules ◽  
Rule Sets ◽  
Cognitive Preferences

AbstractIt is conventional wisdom in machine learning and data mining that logical models such as rule sets are more interpretable than other models, and that among such rule-based models, simpler models are more interpretable than more complex ones. In this position paper, we question this latter assumption by focusing on one particular aspect of interpretability, namely the plausibility of models. Roughly speaking, we equate the plausibility of a model with the likeliness that a user accepts it as an explanation for a prediction. In particular, we argue that—all other things being equal—longer explanations may be more convincing than shorter ones, and that the predominant bias for shorter models, which is typically necessary for learning powerful discriminative models, may not be suitable when it comes to user acceptance of the learned models. To that end, we first recapitulate evidence for and against this postulate, and then report the results of an evaluation in a crowdsourcing study based on about 3000 judgments. The results do not reveal a strong preference for simple rules, whereas we can observe a weak preference for longer rules in some domains. We then relate these results to well-known cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy, the representative heuristic, or the recognition heuristic, and investigate their relation to rule length and plausibility.

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