scholarly journals “This Is What We Don't Know”: Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 221-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ullrika Sahlin ◽  
Inari Helle ◽  
Dmytro Perepolkin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals Live wildlife trade in markets - a scoping review to inform risk assessment of emerging infectious diseases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria J Brookes ◽  
Okta Wismandanu ◽  
Etih Sudarnika ◽  
Justin A Roby ◽  
Lynne Hayes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Mammalian Species ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Wildlife Trade ◽  
The Impact

Wet markets are important for food security in many regions worldwide but have come under scrutiny due to their potential role in the emergence of infectious diseases. The sale of live wildlife has been highlighted as a particular risk, and the World Health Organisation has called for the banning of live, wild-caught mammalian species in markets unless risk assessment and effective regulations are in place. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a global scoping review of peer-reviewed information about the sale of live, terrestrial wildlife in markets that are likely to sell fresh food, and collated data about the characteristics of such markets, activities involving live wildlife, the species sold, their purpose, and animal, human, and environmental health risks that were identified. Of the 59 peer-reviewed records within scope, only 25% (n = 14) focussed on disease risks; the rest focused on the impact of wildlife sale on conservation. Although there were some global patterns (for example, the types of markets and purpose of sale of wildlife), there was wide diversity and huge epistemic uncertainty in all aspects associated with live, terrestrial wildlife sale in markets such that the feasibility of accurate assessment of the risk of emerging infectious disease associated with live wildlife trade in markets is limited. Given the value of both wet markets and wildlife trade and the need to support food affordability and accessibility, conservation, public health, and the social and economic aspects of livelihoods of often vulnerable people, there are major information gaps that need to be addressed to develop evidence-based policy in this environment. This review identifies these gaps and provides a foundation from which information for risk assessments can be collected.

Risk assessment on the EA-6B aircraft utilizing Bayesian networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Banghart ◽  
Linkan Bian ◽  
Lesley Strawderman ◽  
Kari Babski-Reeves
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Networks
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