Long-term trend of precipitation in China and its association with the El Niño–southern oscillation

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. X. Xu ◽  
J. Y. Li ◽  
K. Takeuchi ◽  
H. Ishidaira
1994 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Guinet ◽  
P. Jouventin ◽  
J-Y. Georges

The population trend over the last decade for subantarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus tropicalis) on Amsterdam and St. Paul islands and on Possession Island (Crozet Archipelago) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) on Possession Island are analysed. At Amsterdam Island, based on pup counts, the subantarctic fur seal population appears to have stabilized after a period of rapid growth. At Possession Island subantarctic fur seal and Antarctic fur seal, with respective annual growth rates of 19.2 and 17.4%, are reaching the maximum growth rate for the genus Arctocephalus. Annual pup censuses at Possession Island since 1978 indicate important variations from year to year with pup production for A. gazella significantly lower the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, but with no such relationship for A. tropicalis. Several other long term demographic studies of seabirds and marine mammals at different breeding locations in the Southern Ocean indicate that the breeding success of several of these predators appears to be widely affected in years which appear to be related to the ENSO events. To clarify this, it is necessary to analyse in more detail the demographic data obtained for the different subantarctic and Antarctic locations where long term monitoring programmes are conducted.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 13201-13236 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. Rieder ◽  
L. Frossard ◽  
M. Ribatet ◽  
J. Staehelin ◽  
J. A. Maeder ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30° and 60° north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichón might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982–83 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical "masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and trends is found at a regional level. For the QBO (at 30 and 50 hPa), strong influence on total ozone variability and trends is found over large parts of the northern and southern mid-latitudes, especially towards equatorial latitudes. Strong influence of ENSO is found over the Northern and Southern Pacific, Central Europe and central southern mid-latitudes. For the NAO, strong influence on column ozone is found over Labrador/Greenland, the Eastern United States, the Euro-Atlantic Sector and Central Europe. For the NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strong influence on ozone variability and long-term changes is found at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and central southern mid-latitudes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 752-757
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Callahan ◽  
Chen Chen ◽  
Maria Rugenstein ◽  
Jonah Bloch-Johnson ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. Rieder ◽  
L. Frossard ◽  
M. Ribatet ◽  
J. Staehelin ◽  
J. A. Maeder ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30° and 60° north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichón might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982–1983 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical "masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and trends is found at a regional level. For the QBO (at 30 and 50 hPa), strong influence on total ozone variability and trends is found over large parts of the northern and southern mid-latitudes, especially towards equatorial latitudes. Strong influence of ENSO is found over the Northern and Southern Pacific, Central Europe and central southern mid-latitudes. For the NAO, strong influence on column ozone is found over Labrador/Greenland, the Eastern United States, the Euro-Atlantic Sector, and Central Europe. For the NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strong influence on ozone variability and long-term changes is found at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and central southern mid-latitudes.


2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (7) ◽  
pp. 1244-1251 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. EARNEST ◽  
S. B. TAN ◽  
A. WILDER-SMITH

SUMMARYOur objective was to determine the association between temperature, humidity, rainfall and dengue activity in Singapore, after taking into account lag periods as well as long-term climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We used a Poisson model which allowed for autocorrelation and overdispersion in the data. We found weekly mean temperature and mean relative humidity as well as SOI to be significantly and independently associated with dengue notifications. There was an interaction effect by periods of dengue outbreaks, but periods where El Niño was present did not moderate the relationship between humidity and temperature with dengue notifications. Our results help to understand the temporal trends of dengue in Singapore, and further reinforce the findings that meteorological factors are important in the epidemiology of dengue.


2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Francisco Carminatti Wenceslau ◽  
Mohd Uzair Rusli ◽  
Mohd Fadzil Akhir ◽  
Giacomo Santini ◽  
Juanita Joseph

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (15) ◽  
pp. 4576-4581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhawn F. Denniston ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Angelique N. Gonzales ◽  
Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll ◽  
Victor J. Polyak ◽  
...  

Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term “direct” storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer monsoon. This time series reveals substantial multicentennial variability in extreme rainfall, with elevated occurrence rates characterizing the twentieth century, 850–1450 CE (Common Era), and 50–400 CE; reduced activity marks 1450–1650 CE and 500–850 CE. These trends are similar to reconstructed numbers of TCs in the North Atlantic and Caribbean basins, and they form temporal and spatial patterns best explained by secular changes in the dominant mode of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of modern TC variability. We thus attribute long-term shifts in cyclogenesis in both the central Australian and North Atlantic sectors over the past two millennia to entrenched El Niño or La Niña states of the tropical Pacific. The influence of ENSO on monsoon precipitation in this region of northwest Australia is muted, but ENSO-driven changes to the monsoon may have complemented changes to TC activity.


Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bangyou Zheng ◽  
Scott Chapman ◽  
Karine Chenu

El Niño–Southern Oscillation strongly influences rainfall and temperature patterns in Eastern Australia, with major impacts on frost, heat, and drought stresses, and potential consequences for wheat production. Wheat phenology is a key factor to adapt to the risk of frost, heat, and drought stresses in the Australian wheatbelt. This study explores broad and specific options to adapt wheat cropping systems to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and more specifically, to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phases ahead of the season (i.e., April forecast) in Eastern Australia, when wheat producers make their most crucial management decisions. Crop model simulations were performed for commercially-grown wheat varieties, as well as for virtual genotypes representing possible combinations of phenology alleles that are currently present in the Australian wheat germplasm pool. Different adaptation strategies were tested at the site level, across Eastern Australia, for a wide range of sowing dates and nitrogen applications over long-term historical weather records (1900–2016). The results highlight that a fixed adaptation system, with genotype maturities, sowing time, and nitrogen application adapted to each location would greatly increase wheat productivity compared to sowing a mid-maturity genotype, mid-season, using current practices for nitrogen applications. Tactical adaptation of both genotype and management to the different SOI phases and to different levels of initial Plant Available Water (‘PAW & SOI adaptation’) resulted in further yield improvement. Site long-term increases in yield and gross margin were up to 1.15 t·ha−1 and AU$ 223.0 ha−1 for fixed adaptation (0.78 t·ha−1 and AU$ 153 ha−1 on average across the whole region), and up to an extra 0.26 t·ha−1 and AU$ 63.9 ha−1 for tactical adaptation. For the whole eastern region, these results correspond to an annual AU$ 440 M increase for the fixed adaptation, and an extra AU$ 188 M for the PAW & SOI tactical adaptation. The benefits of PAW & SOI tactical adaptation could be useful for growers to adjust farm management practices according to pre-sowing seasonal conditions and the seasonal climate forecast.


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