The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections

The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on pests of rice and cassava.

CAB Reviews Perspectives in Agriculture Veterinary Science Nutrition and Natural Resources ◽

10.1079/pavsnnr202116050 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (050) ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

M Chaya ◽

◽

Xiang Tao ◽

A Green ◽

Gu BaoGen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Magnaporthe Grisea ◽

Brown Planthopper ◽

Blast Disease ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Staple Crop ◽

The Impact

Climate change is exacerbating food insecurity, and its negative impacts will worsen over time. This is happening via several pathways, among which plant pests are a leading cause. To contribute to more evidence-based decisions and policies, a team from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) carried out a comprehensive literature review on rice (Oryza sativa) and cassava (Manihot esculenta), the major pests and diseases affecting them, and the impact of climate change on the latter. Rice is the major staple crop for about half the world's population. Most studies conclude that pest pressure will increase on rice under future climate change. There are a lot of pests of rice, among which brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) is the most important pest. Leaf blast disease caused by fungus Magnaporthe grisea is the most significant disease, with losses of up to USD 66 billion dollars per year that are equivalent to the amount needed to feed 60 million people. Cassava is the major staple crop and crucial for food security in many countries of the world. A study has shown that cassava production will vary from -3.5% to +17.5% within Africa under 2030 climate projections. Unfortunately, as other crops, cassava will be vulnerable to pests and diseases. Over a third of attainable cassava yield is lost every year to pests and disease alone.

Download Full-text

Estimating the potential impact of climate change on sunflower yield in the Konya province of Turkey

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859621000101 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Hudaverdi Gurkan ◽

Vakhtang Shelia ◽

Nilgun Bayraktar ◽

Y. Ersoy Yildirim ◽

Nebi Yesilekin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Model Performance ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is difficult to assess. However, determining the possible effects of climate change is an absolute necessity for planning by decision-makers. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower model of DSSAT4.7 and the assessment of impact of climate change on sunflower yield under future climate projections. For this purpose, a 2-year sunflower field experiment was conducted under semi-arid conditions in the Konya province of Turkey. Rainfed and irrigated treatments were used for model analysis. For the assessment of impact of climate change, three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways, i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 were selected. The evaluation of the model showed that the model was able to simulate yield reasonably well, with normalized root mean square error of 1.3% for the irrigated treatment and 17.7% for the rainfed treatment, a d-index of 0.98 and a modelling efficiency of 0.93 for the overall model performance. For the climate change scenarios, the model predicted that yield will decrease in a range of 2.9–39.6% under rainfed conditions and will increase in a range of 7.4–38.5% under irrigated conditions. Results suggest that temperature increases due to climate change will cause a shortening of plant growth cycles. Projection results also confirmed that increasing temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in sunflower water requirements in the future. Thus, the results reveal the necessity to apply adequate water management strategies for adaptation to climate change for sunflower production.

Download Full-text

Impacts of impervious cover, water withdrawals, and climate change on river flows in the Conterminous US

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-4263-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 4263-4304 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

P. V. Caldwell ◽

G. Sun ◽

S. G. McNulty ◽

E. C. Cohen ◽

J. A. Moore Myers

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Flow ◽

River Flows ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Impervious Cover ◽

Western Us ◽

Projected Change ◽

Water Withdrawals ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Rivers are essential to aquatic ecosystem and societal sustainability, but are increasingly impacted by water withdrawals, land use change, and climate change. The relative and cumulative effects of these stressors on continental river flows are relatively unknown. In this study, we used an integrated water balance and flow routing model to evaluate the impacts of 2010 impervious cover and water withdrawal on river flow across the Conterminous US at the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watershed scale. We then estimated the impacts of projected change in withdrawals, impervious cover, and climate under the B1 "low" and A2 "high" emission scenarios on river flows by 2060. Our results suggest that compared to no impervious cover, 2010 levels of impervious cover increased river flows by 9.9% on average with larger impacts in and downstream of major metropolitan areas. In contrast, compared to no water withdrawals, 2010 withdrawals decreased river flows by 1.4% on average with larger impacts in heavily irrigated arid regions of Western US. By 2060, impacts of climate change were predicted to overwhelm the potential gain in river flow due to future changes in impervious cover and add to the potential reduction in river flows from withdrawals, decreasing mean annual river flows from 2010 levels by 16% on average. However, increases in impervious cover by 2060 may offset the impact of climate change during the growing season in some watersheds. Large water withdrawals will aggravate the predicted impact of climate change on river flows, particularly in the Western US. Given that the impacts of land use, withdrawals and climate may be either additive or offsetting in different magnitudes, integrated and spatially explicit modelling and management approaches are necessary to effectively manage water resources for aquatic life and human use in the face of global change.

Download Full-text

The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?

10.31219/osf.io/y8p7k ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Philippe Roudier ◽

Benjamin Sultan ◽

Philippe Quirion ◽

Alexis Berg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

West Africa ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Median Response ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Symposium on Social Theory and the Environment in the New World (dis)Order ; International audience ; In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty. Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near -11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, -18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Download Full-text

Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Flexible Pavement Performance and Lifetime in the United States

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board ◽

10.1177/0361198118821877 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2673 (1) ◽

pp. 110-122 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Anne M. K. Stoner ◽

Jo Sias Daniel ◽

Jennifer M. Jacobs ◽

Katharine Hayhoe ◽

Ian Scott-Fleming

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Flexible Pavement ◽

The United States ◽

Pavement Design ◽

Pavement Performance ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Flexible pavement design requires considering a variety of factors including the materials used, variations in water tables, traffic levels, and the climatic conditions the road will experience over its lifetime. Most pavement designs are based on historical climate variables such as temperature and precipitation that are already changing across much of the United States, and do not reflect projected trends. As pavements are typically designed to last 20 years or more, designs that do not account for current and future trends can result in reduced performance. However, incorporating climate projections into pavement design is not a trivial exercise. Significant mismatches in both spatial and temporal scale challenge the integration of the latest global climate model simulations into pavement models. This study provides a national-level overview of what the impact of climate change to flexible pavement could look like, and where regional focus should be placed. It also demonstrates a new approach to developing high-resolution spatial and temporal projections that generates hourly information at the scale of individual weather stations, and applies this as input to the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design™ model. The impact of three different future climates on pavement performance and time to reach failure thresholds in 24 locations across the United States are quantified. Changes to projected pavement performance differ by location, but nearly all result in decreased performance under current design standards. The largest increases in distress are observed for permanent deformation measures, especially toward the end of the century under greater increases in temperature.

Download Full-text

The impact of climate change on urban transport resilience in a changing world

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133314538741 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 38 (4) ◽

pp. 448-463 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

David Jaroszweski ◽

Elizabeth Hooper ◽

Lee Chapman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Smart Cities ◽

Urban Transport ◽

Transport Systems ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

The assessment of the potential impact of climate change on transport is an area of research very much in its infancy, and one that requires input from a multitude of disciplines including geography, engineering and technology, meteorology, climatology and futures studies. This paper investigates the current state of the art for assessments on urban surface transport, where rising populations and increasing dependence on efficient and reliable mobility have increased the importance placed on resilience to weather. The standard structure of climate change impact assessment (CIA) requires understanding in three important areas: how weather currently affects infrastructure and operations; how climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of these impacts; and how concurrent technological and socio-economic development may shape the transport network of the future, either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of climate change. The extent to which the requisite knowledge exists for a successful CIA is observed to decrease from the former to the latter. This paper traces a number of developments in the extrapolation of physical and behavioural relationships on to future climates, including a broad move away from previous deterministic methods and towards probabilistic projections which make use of a much broader range of climate change model output, giving a better representation of the uncertainty involved. Studies increasingly demand spatially and temporally downscaled climate projections that can represent realistic sub-daily fluctuations in weather that transport systems are sensitive to. It is recommended that future climate change impact assessments should focus on several key areas, including better representation of sub-daily extremes in climate tools, and recreation of realistic spatially coherent weather. Greater use of the increasing amounts of data created and captured by ‘intelligent infrastructure’ and ‘smart cities’ is also needed to develop behavioural and physical models of the response of transport to weather and to develop a better understanding of how stakeholders respond to probabilistic climate change impact projections.

Download Full-text

Climate Change Impacts on Reservoir Inflow in the Prairie Pothole Region: A Watershed Model Analysis

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010271 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 271 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Ameer Muhammad ◽

Grey R. Evenson ◽

Fisaha Unduche ◽

Tricia A. Stadnyk

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Prairie Pothole Region ◽

Swat Model ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Prairie Pothole ◽

Time Step ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.

Download Full-text

The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams

10.20944/preprints201812.0266.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Annie Visser ◽

Lindsay Beevers ◽

Sandhya Patidar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Limited Range ◽

Freshwater Ecosystems ◽

Functional Feeding Groups ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Probabilistic Climate Projections ◽

Chalk Streams ◽

The Impact

Climate change represents a major threat to lotic freshwater ecosystems and their ability to support the provision of ecosystem services. England’s chalk streams are in a poor state of health, with significant concerns regarding their resilience, the ability to adapt, under a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change on hydroecological response, the health of the river, for the River Nar, a SSSI in the south-east of England. To this end, we apply a coupled hydrological and hydroecological modelling framework, with the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections serving as input (A1B high emissions scenario). Results show that, from 2021 to the end of the century, hydroecological response becomes more heterogeneous. Despite the limited range of the functional feeding groups on the baseline, the River Nar has been able to adapt to extreme events due to inter-annual variation. In the future, this variation is greatly reduced, raising real concerns over the resilience of the river ecosystem under climate change. These new insights into the health of the River Nar, and chalk streams more generally, highlights the necessity of further study and the real need to for changed river management practices.

Download Full-text

Changes in the Risk of Cool-Season Tornadoes over Southern Australia due to Model Projections of Anthropogenic Warming

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2009jcli3456.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (9) ◽

pp. 2440-2449 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

B. Timbal ◽

R. Kounkou ◽

G. A. Mills

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

First Century ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Cool Season ◽

Near Surface ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

The Impact

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is likely to be felt most acutely through changes in the frequency of extreme meteorological events. However, quantifying the impact of climate change on these events is a challenge because the core of the climate change science relies on general circulation models to detail future climate projections, and many of these extreme events occur on small scales that are not resolved by climate models. This note describes an attempt to infer the impact of climate change on one particular type of extreme meteorological event—the cool-season tornadoes of southern Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts threat areas for cool-season tornadoes using fine-resolution numerical weather prediction model output to define areas where the buoyancy of a near-surface air parcel and the vertical wind shear each exceed specified thresholds. The diagnostic has been successfully adapted to coarser-resolution climate models and applied to simulations of the current climate, as well as future projections of the climate over southern Australia. Simulations of the late twentieth century are used to validate the models’ ability to reproduce the climatology of the risk of cool-season tornado formation by comparing these with similar computations based on historical reanalyses. Model biases are overcome by setting model specific thresholds to define the cool-season tornado risk. The diagnostic, applied to simulations of the twenty-first century, is then used to quantify the impact of the projected climate change on cool-season tornado risk. The sign of the response is consistent across all models: a decrease of the risk of formation during the twenty-first century is projected, driven by the thermodynamical response. The thermal response is modulated by the dynamical response, which varies between models. The projected decrease in tornadoes risk during the cool season is consistent with the projection of positive southern annular mode trends and the known influence of this mode of variability on interannual to intraseasonal time-scale variations in cool-season tornado occurrence.

Download Full-text