Observational and predictive uncertainties for multiple variables in a spatially distributed hydrological model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Benjamin Ehlers ◽  
Torben Obel Sonnenborg ◽  
Jens Christian Refsgaard
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Multiple Variables

scholarly journals Post-event analysis and flash flood hydrology in Slovakia

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 304-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Marco Borga ◽  
Oliver Horvát ◽  
Pavel Šťastný ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Flood Peaks

Abstract This work examines the main features of the flash flood regime in Central Europe as revealed by an analysis of flash floods that have occurred in Slovakia. The work is organized into the following two parts: The first part focuses on estimating the rainfall-runoff relationships for 3 major flash flood events, which were among the most severe events since 1998 and caused a loss of lives and a large amount of damage. The selected flash floods occurred on the 20th of July, 1998, in the Malá Svinka and Dubovický Creek basins; the 24th of July, 2001, at Štrbský Creek; and the 19th of June, 2004, at Turniansky Creek. The analysis aims to assess the flash flood peaks and rainfall-runoff properties by combining post-flood surveys and the application of hydrological and hydraulic post-event analyses. Next, a spatially-distributed hydrological model based on the availability of the raster information of the landscape’s topography, soil and vegetation properties, and rainfall data was used to simulate the runoff. The results from the application of the distributed hydrological model were used to analyse the consistency of the surveyed peak discharges with respect to the estimated rainfall properties and drainage basins. In the second part these data were combined with observations from flash flood events which were observed during the last 100 years and are focused on an analysis of the relationship between the flood peaks and the catchment area. The envelope curve was shown to exhibit a more pronounced decrease with the catchment size with respect to other flash flood relationships found in the Mediterranean region. The differences between the two relationships mainly reflect changes in the coverage of the storm sizes and hydrological characteristics between the two regions.

scholarly journals A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1019-1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Pallard ◽  
A. Castellarin ◽  
A. Montanari
Keyword(s):  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Drainage Density ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Skewness Coefficient ◽  
Deviation Coefficient ◽  
Coefficient Of Skewness

Abstract. We investigate the links between the drainage density of a river basin and selected flood statistics, namely, mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness of annual maximum series of peak flows. The investigation is carried out through a three-stage analysis. First, a numerical simulation is performed by using a spatially distributed hydrological model in order to highlight how flood statistics change with varying drainage density. Second, a conceptual hydrological model is used in order to analytically derive the dependence of flood statistics on drainage density. Third, real world data from 44 watersheds located in northern Italy were analysed. The three-level analysis seems to suggest that a critical value of the drainage density exists for which a minimum is attained in both the coefficient of variation and the absolute value of the skewness coefficient. Such minima in the flood statistics correspond to a minimum of the flood quantile for a given exceedance probability (i.e., recurrence interval). Therefore, the results of this study may provide useful indications for flood risk assessment in ungauged basins.

scholarly journals Assessment of evapotranspiration simulations in the Malše basin

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (Special Issue 2) ◽  
pp. S111-S122
Author(s):  
R. Košková ◽  
S. Němečková
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
The Other ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Soil Types ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Landscape Characteristics ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Spatially Distributed

The application of the distributed hydrological model brings the benefits of assessment of the spatially distributed quantities which are hard to measure in the field over a larger area, e.g. evapotranspiration. The Malše River basin has been chosen for the evaluation of evapotranspiration simulation by the distributed hydrological model, SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The primary interest in this analysis was to assess the ability of the hydrological model to simulate the actual evapotranspiration on larger scales and to evaluate its dependence on the landscape characteristics such as the vegetation cover, soil type, and average precipitation amount during the simulation. Annual actual evapotranspiration in each hydrotope was evaluated in the simulation period of 1985–1998. Because of the lack of the data observed (evapotranspiration), the model was calibrated on the discharge time series. The credibility was quantified using Nash Sutcliffe efficiency which was more than 0.7. The main trends of the simulated actual evapotranspiration were evaluated and assessed as satisfactory. The differences in the soil types did not seem significant for the evapotranspiration variation, the monthly average values among soil types differing by ± 10% except histosol. On the other hand the differences in the land-use categories strongly influenced the amount of evapotranspiration (–30; +50%). It appears that the model SWIM overestimates the actual evapotranspiration in the spring and, on the other hand, underestimates that in the autumn according to the comparison with the only data available in the entire Climate Atlas of the Czech Republic.

scholarly journals Investigation of the transferability of hydrological models and a method to improve model calibration

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 83-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Hartmann ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Model Calibration ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Improve Model ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Measure Of Performance

Abstract. In order to find a model parameterization such that the hydrological model performs well even under different conditions, appropriate model performance measures have to be determined. A common performance measure is the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. Usually it is calculated comparing observed and modelled daily values. In this paper a modified version is suggested in order to calibrate a model on different time scales simultaneously (days up to years). A spatially distributed hydrological model based on HBV concept was used. The modelling was applied on the Upper Neckar catchment, a mesoscale river in south western Germany with a basin size of about 4000 km2. The observation period 1961-1990 was divided into four different climatic periods, referred to as "warm", "cold", "wet" and "dry". These sub periods were used to assess the transferability of the model calibration and of the measure of performance. In a first step, the hydrological model was calibrated on a certain period and afterwards applied on the same period. Then, a validation was performed on the climatologically opposite period than the calibration, e.g. the model calibrated on the cold period was applied on the warm period. Optimal parameter sets were identified by an automatic calibration procedure based on Simulated Annealing. The results show, that calibrating a hydrological model that is supposed to handle short as well as long term signals becomes an important task. Especially the objective function has to be chosen very carefully.

scholarly journals Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-P. Malet ◽  
Th. W. J. van Asch ◽  
R. van Beek ◽  
O. Maquaire
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Saturated Model ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Spatially Distributed

Abstract. The relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short- and long-term. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes.

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