scholarly journals Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (10) ◽  
pp. 2296-2301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suraj D. Polade ◽  
Alexander Gershunov ◽  
Daniel R. Cayan ◽  
Michael D. Dettinger ◽  
David W. Pierce
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North American ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
American Region

scholarly journals Two centuries of coherent decadal climate variability across the Pacific North American region

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (17) ◽  
pp. 9208-9216 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. Sanchez ◽  
C. D. Charles ◽  
J. D. Carriquiry ◽  
J. A. Villaescusa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
North American ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
American Region

GCM Simulations of Intraseasonal Variability in the Pacific/North American Region

1993 ◽  
Vol 50 (13) ◽  
pp. 1991-2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Max Suarez ◽  
Chung-Kyu Park ◽  
Shrinivas Moorthi
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
American Region

scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Risser ◽  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
John P. O’Brien ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Travis A. O’Brien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Natural Climate

AbstractWhile various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

scholarly journals Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ( Parus major )

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1963) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel E. Visser ◽  
Melanie Lindner ◽  
Phillip Gienapp ◽  
Matthew C. Long ◽  
Stephanie Jenouvrier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Parus Major ◽  
Great Tit ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Seasonal Timing ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Natural Climate

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit ( Parus major ), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

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