Testing the martingale hypothesis for futures prices: Implications for hedgers

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 1040-1065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cédric de Ville de Goyet ◽  
Geert Dhaene ◽  
Piet Sercu
Keyword(s):  
Futures Prices ◽  
Martingale Hypothesis

Relationship between Coffee Prices in Spot and Futures Markets-An Empirical Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 180-188
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Highly Correlated

The present study explored the relationship between spot and futures coffee prices. The Correlation and Regression analysis were carried out based on monthly observations of International Coffee Organization (ICO) indicator prices of the four groups (Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Robustas) representing Spot markets and the averages of 2nd and 3rd positions of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) New York for Arabica and ICE Europe for Robusta representing the Futures market for the period 1990 to 2019. The study also used the monthly average prices paid to coffee growers in India from 1990 to 2019. The estimated correlation coefficients indicated both the Futures prices and Spot prices of coffee are highly correlated. Further, estimated regression coefficients revealed a very strong relationship between Futures prices and Spot prices for all four ICO group indicator prices. Hence, the ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE Europe (Robusta) coffee futures prices are very closely related to Spot prices. The estimated regression coefficients between Futures prices and the price paid to coffee growers in India confirmed the positive relationship, but the dispersion of more prices over the trend line indicates a lesser degree of correlation between the price paid to growers at India and Futures market prices during the study period.

Pricing of Futures Contracts

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Krause
Keyword(s):  
Fair Value ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Cost Of Carry ◽  
Contract Expiration ◽  
The Cost

This chapter examines the relation between futures prices relative to the spot price of the underlying asset. Basic futures pricing is characterized by the convergence of futures and spot prices during the delivery period just before contract expiration. However, “no arbitrage” arguments that dictate the fair value of futures contracts largely determine pricing relations before expiration. Although the cost of carry model in its various forms largely determines futures prices before expiration, the chapter presents alternative explanations. Related commodity futures complexes exhibit mean-reverting behavior, as seen in commodity spread markets and other interrelated commodities. Energy commodity futures prices can be somewhat accurately modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, although whether these models provide economically significant excess returns is uncertain.

Financialization of Commodity Markets

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle J. Putnam
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Commodity Futures Markets ◽  
Asset Class

In the early 2000s, financial investors began pouring billions of dollars into the commodity futures markets seeking the unique investment benefits of this distinct asset class. This “financialization” process has called into question the fundamental risk and return properties of commodity futures as evidence has emerged favoring the idea that the massive increase in investor flows caused a rise in futures prices, volatility, and intra- and intermarket return correlations. However, a contrarian line of research contends that the effects of the new “speculative” capital on the futures markets are unsubstantiated and the increased participation of financial investors poses little consequence to the economics of the marketplace. This latter line of literature maintains that the investment benefits of commodity futures have not been diminished and that fundamental factors and business cycle variations can explain the observed changes in commodity price behavior.

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