scholarly journals Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Bijak ◽  
George Disney ◽  
Allan M. Findlay ◽  
Jonathan J. Forster ◽  
Peter W.F. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
The United Kingdom

Brexit Announcement: Immediate Impact on British Tourism in Spain

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Francisco Perles-Ribes ◽  
Ana Belén Ramón-Rodríguez ◽  
Armando Ortuño Padilla
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Structural Time Series ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Structural Time Series Models ◽  
Structural Time

The United Kingdom constitutes the principal tourist source market for Spain. This research note analyzes the immediate impact of the Brexit on British tourism in Spain using the Bayesian structural time series models framework. The results obtained show that between July 2016 and September 2017, Brexit has not produced any initial negative effect on the arrival of British tourists or on their spending in Spain.

scholarly journals Climate effects on the onset of flowering in the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel Fox ◽  
Anna Maria Jönsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Event ◽  
Negative Response ◽  
Wild Plant ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
The United Kingdom

Abstract Background A warmer climate has consequences for the timing of phenological events, as temperature is a key factor controlling plant development and flowering. In this study, we analyse the effects of the long-term climate change and an extreme weather event on the first flowering day (FFD) of five spring-flowering wild plant species in the United Kingdom. Citizen science data from the UK Woodland Trust were obtained for five species: Tussilago farfara (coltsfoot), Anemone nemorosa (wood anemone), Hyacinthoides non-scripta (bluebell), Cardamine pratensis (cuckooflower) and Alliaria petiolate (garlic mustard). Results Out of the 351 site-specific time series (≥ 15-years of FFD records), 74.6% showed significant negative response rates, i.e. earlier flowering in warmer years, ranging from − 5.6 to − 7.7 days °C−1. 23.7% of the series had non-significant negative response rates, and 1.7% had non-significant positive response rates. For cuckooflower, the response rate was increasingly more negative with decreasing latitudes. The winter of 2007 reflects an extreme weather event, about 2 °C warmer compared to 2006, where the 2006 winter temperatures were similar to the 1961–1990 baseline average. The FFD of each species was compared between 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the mean FFD of all species significantly advanced between 13 and 18 days during the extreme warmer winter of 2007, confirming that FFD is affected by temperature. Conclusion Given that all species in the study significantly respond to ambient near-surface temperatures, they are suitable as climate-change indicators. However, the responses to a + 2 °C warmer winter were both more and less pronounced than expected from an analysis of ≥ 15-year time series. This may reflect non-linear responses, species-specific thresholds and cumulative temperature effects. It also indicates that knowledge on extreme weather events is needed for detailed projections of potential climate change effects.

The Effect of Universal Decolonization With Screening in Critical Care to Reduce MRSA Across an Entire Hospital

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 430-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig W. Bradley ◽  
Martyn A. C. Wilkinson ◽  
Mark I. Garvey
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Kernel Regression ◽  
Break Point ◽  
University Hospitals ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Break Points

OBJECTIVETo describe the effect of universal methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) decolonization therapy in a large intensive care unit (ICU) on the rates of MRSA cases and acquisitions in a UK hospital.DESIGNDescriptive study.SETTINGUniversity Hospitals Birmingham (UHB) NHS Foundation Trust is a tertiary referral teaching hospital in Birmingham, United Kingdom, that provides clinical services to nearly 1 million patients every year.METHODSA break-point time series analysis and kernel regression models were used to detect significant changes in the cumulative monthly numbers of MRSA bacteremia cases and acquisitions from April 2013 to August 2016 across the UHB system.RESULTSPrior to 2014, all ICU patients at UHB received universal MRSA decolonization therapy. In August 2014, UHB discontinued the use of universal decolonization due to published reports in the United Kingdom detailing the limited usefulness and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention. Break-point time series analysis of MRSA acquisition and bacteremia data indicated that break points were associated with the discontinuation and subsequent reintroduction of universal decolonization. Kernel regression models indicated a significant increase (P<.001) in MRSA acquisitions and bacteremia cases across UHB during the period without universal decolonization.CONCLUSIONWe suggest that routine decolonization for MRSA in a large ICU setting is an effective strategy to reduce the spread and incidence of MRSA across the whole hospital.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:430–435

Counter-cyclical Voting in the United Kingdom

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1040-1058
Author(s):  
Abel Bojar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Vote Intention

By extending the time-tested reward–punishment hypothesis in economic voting, this article argues that rational voters hold incumbents accountable for the macroeconomic policies they pursue rather than purely for the economic climate that prevails under their tenure. Building on this premise, I first put forward a theory where business cycle fluctuations realign relative fiscal preferences among income groups. This theory’s implications predict that the aggregate electoral response to fiscal decisions evolves in a counter-cyclical fashion. Using quarterly measures of vote intention shares of incumbent parties in the United Kingdom, I provide time-series evidence from a set of error correction models supporting this proposition: at times of low unemployment, the electorate punishes profligate incumbents; in deteriorating labour market conditions, however, they reward expansionary policies. The immediate electoral impact is non-significant across the models, and most of the estimated effect is spread out across subsequent quarters.

Environmental Pollution, Income Inequality, and Household Energy Consumption: Evidence from the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Household Energy ◽  
Household Energy Consumption ◽  
Household Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study explored the impact of income inequality, household energy consumption, government expenditure, and investment on carbon dioxide emissions at the household level over the period 1970–2015 in the United Kingdom. The study applied Clemente–Montanes–Reyes unit root test to identify structural break in the time series. Further, the cointegrating relationship of the time series observations was explored by applying the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) (linear) bounds test approach along with the nonlinear ARDL for making fruitful comparisons in the long-run relationship among the variables. The paper used Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration method for robustness test in the cointegrating methods. In addition, the causality analysis was explored using the Toda–Yamato (1995) method of Granger causality. The results confirmed the existence of cointegration among the variables.The estimated NARDL results show that in the long run the negative asymmetric impact of the income inequality is stronger than the positive impact. The paper concludes that there is an urgent need to reduce income inequality in the United Kingdom to improve equitable consumption of energy at the household level. Last the causality test shows that there exists unidirectional causality from inequality transmission to carbon emissions.

scholarly journals Replacement migration, or why everyone is going to have to live in Korea: a fable for our times from the United Nations

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1420) ◽  
pp. 583-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Coleman
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Care For The Elderly ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Mild Reduction ◽  
Workforce Productivity ◽  
Future Population

This paper considers international migration in the context of population ageing. In many Western countries, the search for appropriate responses to manage future population ageing and population decline has directed attention to international migration. It seems reasonable to believe that international migrants, mostly of young working age, can supply population deficits created by low birth rates, protect European society and economy from the economic costs of elderly dependency, and provide a workforce to care for the elderly. Particular prominence has been given to this option through the publicity attendant on a report from the UN Population Division in 2000 on ‘replacement migration’, which has been widely reported and widely misunderstood. Although immigration can prevent population decline, it is already well known that it can only prevent population ageing at unprecedented, unsustainable and increasing levels of inflow, which would generate rapid population growth and eventually displace the original population from its majority position. This paper reviews these arguments in the context of the causes and inevitability of population ageing, with examples mostly based on UK data. It discusses various options available in response to population ageing through workforce, productivity, pensions reform and other means. It concludes that there can be no ‘solution’ to population ageing, which is to a considerable degree unavoidable. However, if the demographic regime of the United Kingdom continues to be relatively benign, future population ageing can be managed with tolerable inconvenience without recourse to increased immigration for ‘demographic’ purposes. At present (2001), net immigration to the United Kingdom is already running at record levels and is now the main engine behind UK population and household growth. By itself, population stabilization, or even mild reduction, is probably to be welcomed in the United Kingdom, although the issue has attracted little attention since the 1970s.

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