scholarly journals Climate change and eastern Africa: a review of impact on major crops

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umesh Adhikari ◽  
A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi ◽  
Sean A. Woznicki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Africa

scholarly journals Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Leedale ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Anne E. Jones ◽  
Grigory Nikulin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Recent Climate

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Eastern Africa

2019 ◽  
pp. 199-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred Opere ◽  
Anne Omwoyo ◽  
Purity Mueni ◽  
Mark Arango
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
Groundwater Aquifers

Climate change is causing great impact on water resources in Eastern Africa, and there is need to establish and implement effective adaptation and mitigation measures. According to IPCC, less rainfall during the months that are already dry could increase drought as well as precipitation, and this has great impact on both permanent and seasonal water resources. Increased sea surface temperature as a result of climate change could lead to increased drought cases in Eastern African and entire equatorial region. Climate change will also result in annual flow reduction in various river resources available within the region such as the Nile River. IPCC predicts that rainfall will decrease in the already arid areas of the Horn of Africa and that drought and desertification will become more widespread, and as a result, there will be an increased scarcity of freshwater even as groundwater aquifers are being mined. Wetland areas are also being used to obtain water for humans and livestock and as additional cultivation and grazing land. This chapter reviews the climate change impacts on water resources within the Eastern Africa Region. The climate change impacts on different water resources such as Ewao Ngiro have been highlighted and projection of future climate change on water resources examined. Stream flow for Ewaso Ngiro was found to have a significant increasing trend in 2030s of RCP4.5 and non-significant decreasing trend in stream flow in 2060s for RCP4.5.

scholarly journals The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1491
Author(s):  
Xuhui Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Zefang Zhao ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
Quanzhong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Forest Models ◽  
Random Forest Models

The potential distribution of the invasive plant Anredera cordifolia (Tenore) Steenis was predicted by Random Forest models under current and future climate-change pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of 2050s and the 2070s). Pearson correlations were used to select variables; the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by using AUC, Kappa, and TSS. The results show that suitable future distribution areas are mainly in Southeast Asia, Eastern Oceania, a few parts of Eastern Africa, Southern North America, and Eastern South America. Temperature is the key climatic factor affecting the distribution of A. cordifolia. Important metrics include mean temperature of the coldest quarter (0.3 °C ≤ Bio11 ≤ 22.9 °C), max temperature of the warmest month (17.1 °C ≤ Bio5 ≤ 35.5 °C), temperature annual range (10.7 °C ≤ Bio7 ≤ 33 °C), annual mean air temperature (6.8 °C ≤ Bio1 ≤ 24.4 °C), and min temperature of coldest month (−2.8 °C ≤ Bio6 ≤ 17.2 °C). Only one precipitation index (Bio19) was important, precipitation of coldest quarter (7 mm ≤ Bio19 ≤ 631 mm). In addition, areas with strong human activities are most prone to invasion. This species is native to Brazil, but has been introduced in Asia, where it is widely planted and has escaped from cultivation. Under the future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas of A. cordifolia will expand to higher latitudes. This study can provide a reference for the rational management and control of A. cordifolia.

scholarly journals Perceived livelihood impacts and adaptation of vegetable farmers to climate variability and change in selected sites from Ghana, Uganda and Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 6831-6849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olushola Fadairo ◽  
Portia Adade Williams ◽  
Faridah Sendagire Nalwanga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Vegetable Production ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Vegetable Farmers ◽  
Dry Spell

Abstract In the wake of deepened situations of changing climate, a clear understanding of the perceived impacts and adaptation of climate variability and change on livelihoods of vegetable farmers in Western and Eastern Africa, which is not readily available, is critical for sustainable vegetable production in Africa. Development planning for climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment was utilised in the study. Using multi-stage sampling procedure, 193 vegetable farmers in selected sites prominent for vegetable production from Uganda, Ghana and Nigeria were used. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance and linear regression at α0.05. Awareness of climate variability and change was high among most respondents from the three countries, but highest among respondents from Uganda (78.3%). Awareness was highest for long dry spell ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯  = 1.90) and drought ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯  = 1.81) and lowest for harmful gas emissions ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯  = 0.76). Changes in climate variability and trends were perceived to be highest in terms of flood volume/damage caused by flood to farmlands in Nigeria ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯  = 3.85) and Uganda ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯  = 5.0), but in terms of increased temperature for Ghana ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯  = 4.93). Impact of climate-related changes on vegetable farming was high in Ghana (98.3%) and Nigeria (46.6%) but low in Uganda (5.0%). Awareness (β = 0.14), perception (β = 0.15) use of adaptation strategies (β = 0.10) and household size (β = − 0.19) predicted change in perceived impact of climate variability among vegetable farmers. Vegetable farmers in Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are affected differently by climate variability. Farmers in these countries also have different priorities for adaptation strategies. Locality-specific climate adaptation strategies would help ease farmers burden due to climate change.

Human responses to hydroclimate fluctuations over the last 200 kyr in Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Schäbitz ◽  
Verena Foerster ◽  
Asfawossen Asrat ◽  
Andrew S. Cohen ◽  
Melissa S. Chapot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Homo Sapiens ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Southern Ethiopia ◽  
Ethiopian Rift ◽  
Mobility Patterns

<p><span>Humans </span><span>have been adapting to more demanding habitats in the course of their evolutionary history</span><span>. </span><span>Nevertheless</span><span>, environmental changes coupled with overpopulation naturally limit competition for resources. In order to find such limits, reconstructions of climate and </span><span>population changes </span><span>are increasingly used for the continent of our origin, Africa.</span> <span>However, </span><span>continuous and high-resolution records of climate-human interactions are still scarce. </span></p><p><span>Using a 280 m sediment core from Chew Bahir*, a wide tectonic basin in southern Ethiopia,</span> <span>we reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions during the development of <em>Homo sapiens.</em> The complete multiproxy record of the composite core covers the last ~600 ka </span><span>, allowing tests of hypotheses about the influence of climate change on human evolution and technological innovation from the Late Acheulean to the Middle/Late Stone Age, and on dispersal within and out of Africa</span><span>. </span></p><p><span>Here we present results from the uppermost 100 meters of the Chew Bahir core, spanning the last 200 kiloyears (ka). </span><span>The record shows two modes of environmental change that are associated with two types of human mobility. The first mode is a long-term trend towards a more arid climate, overlain by precession-driven wet-dry alternation. Through comparison with the archaeological record, humid episodes appear to have led to the opening of ‘green’ networks between favourable habitats and thus to increased human mobility on a regional scale. The second mode of environmental change resembles millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, which seem to coincide with enhanced vertical mobility from the Ethiopian rift to the highlands, especially in the time frame between ~65–21 ka BP. The coincidence of climate change and human mobility patterns help to define the limiting conditions for early <em>Homo sapiens</em> in eastern Africa.</span></p><p><span>___________________</span></p><p><span>*</span> <span>cored in the context of HSPDP (<em>Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project</em>) and CRC </span><span>(<em>Collaborative Research </em><em>Centre</em>) 806 “<em>Our way to Europe</em>”</span></p>

Equatorial eastern Africa: Quaternary climate change and variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 1-2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Ogola ◽  
Asfawossen Asrat ◽  
Stephen Rucina ◽  
Elgidius B. Ichumbaki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Quaternary Climate
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