scholarly journals Wind speed prediction for small sample dataset using hybrid first‐order accumulated generating operation‐based double exponential smoothing model

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Uzair Yousuf ◽  
Ibrahim Al‐Bahadly ◽  
Ebubekir Avci
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
First Order ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing

Active Power Smoothing of Wind Generator Based on Wind Speed Prediction and Inverse-System

2011 ◽  
Vol 383-390 ◽  
pp. 1363-1368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Lan Wang ◽  
Jiao Wu
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Active Power ◽  
Inverse System ◽  
Cascade System ◽  
First Order ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Power Smoothing ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
One Step

Active power smoothing of wind generator is very important to the utilization of wind energy. One-step ahead prediction of wind speed with the inverse-system is proposed in this paper. Wind generator is simplified as first order dynamic model. An inverse-system is designed to cascade with the model. Kalman filter and ARIMA models are used to predict the wind speed one-step ahead. The predicted wind speed is the input to the cascade system. The simulation shows that the fluctuations of the torque, the active power and the pitch angle are decreased effectively.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE WIND SPEED PREDICTION ERROR ON THE SIZE OF THE STORAGE CONTROLLED OPERATION ZONE IN THE SYSTEM WITH THE WIND GENERATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (57) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
K.S. Klen ◽  
◽  
M.K. Yaremenko ◽  
V.Ya. Zhuykov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Average Energy ◽  
Interpolation Formula ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Generator ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Predictor Corrector

The article analyzes the influence of wind speed prediction error on the size of the controlled operation zone of the storage. The equation for calculating the power at the output of the wind generator according to the known values of wind speed is given. It is shown that when the wind speed prediction error reaches a value of 20%, the controlled operation zone of the storage disappears. The necessity of comparing prediction methods with different data discreteness to ensure the minimum possible prediction error and determining the influence of data discreteness on the error is substantiated. The equations of the "predictor-corrector" scheme for the Adams, Heming, and Milne methods are given. Newton's second interpolation formula for interpolation/extrapolation is given at the end of the data table. The average relative error of MARE was used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. It is shown that the prediction error is smaller when using data with less discreteness. It is shown that when using the Adams method with a prediction horizon of up to 30 min, within ± 34% of the average energy value, the drive can be controlled or discharged in a controlled manner. References 13, figures 2, tables 3.

An application of backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine for prediction of short-term wind speed

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongda Tian ◽  
Yi Ren ◽  
Gang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Backtracking Search ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind speed prediction is an important technology in the wind power field; however, because of their chaotic nature, predicting wind speed accurately is difficult. Aims at this challenge, a backtracking search optimization–based least squares support vector machine model is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. In this article, the least squares support vector machine is chosen as the short-term wind speed prediction model and backtracking search optimization algorithm is used to optimize the important parameters which influence the least squares support vector machine regression model. Furthermore, the optimal parameters of the model are obtained, and the short-term wind speed prediction model of least squares support vector machine is established through parameter optimization. For time-varying systems similar to short-term wind speed time series, a model updating method based on prediction error accuracy combined with sliding window strategy is proposed. When the prediction model does not match the actual short-term wind model, least squares support vector machine trains and re-establishes. This model updating method avoids the mismatch problem between prediction model and actual wind speed data. The actual collected short-term wind speed time series is used as the research object. Multi-step prediction simulation of short-term wind speed is carried out. The simulation results show that backtracking search optimization algorithm–based least squares support vector machine model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability for the short-term wind speed. At the same time, the prediction performance indicators are also improved. The prediction result is that root mean square error is 0.1248, mean absolute error is 0.1374, mean absolute percentile error is 0.1589% and R2 is 0.9648. When the short-term wind speed varies from 0 to 4 m/s, the average value of absolute prediction error is 0.1113 m/s, and average value of absolute relative prediction error is 8.7111%. The proposed prediction model in this article has high engineering application value.

scholarly journals A Novel Information Theoretical Criterion for Climate Network Construction

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1500
Author(s):  
Sara Cornejo-Bueno ◽  
Mihaela I. Chidean ◽  
Antonio J. Caamaño ◽  
Luis Prieto-Godino ◽  
Sancho Salcedo-Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Construction Method ◽  
Membership Probability ◽  
Network Construction ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Emergent Behaviour ◽  
Symmetry Properties ◽  
Leibler Divergence ◽  
Speed Prediction

This paper presents a novel methodology for Climate Network (CN) construction based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) among Membership Probability (MP) distributions, obtained from the Second Order Data-Coupled Clustering (SODCC) algorithm. The proposed method is able to obtain CNs with emergent behaviour adapted to the variables being analyzed, and with a low number of spurious or missing links. We evaluate the proposed method in a problem of CN construction to assess differences in wind speed prediction at different wind farms in Spain. The considered problem presents strong local and mesoscale relationships, but low synoptic scale relationships, which have a direct influence in the CN obtained. We carry out a comparison of the proposed approach with a classical correlation-based CN construction method. We show that the proposed approach based on the SODCC algorithm and the KLD constructs CNs with an emergent behaviour according to underlying wind speed prediction data physics, unlike the correlation-based method that produces spurious and missing links. Furthermore, it is shown that the climate network construction method facilitates the evaluation of symmetry properties in the resulting complex networks.

scholarly journals A Novel Self-Adaptive Wind Speed Prediction Model Considering Atmospheric Motion and Fractal Feature

IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 215892-215903
Author(s):  
Ji Jin ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Min Yu ◽  
Jiang Liu ◽  
Wenbo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Self Adaptive
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