Forecasting aggregated wind power production of multiple wind farms using hybrid wavelet-PSO-NNs

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (13) ◽  
pp. 1654-1666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paras Mandal ◽  
Hamidreza Zareipour ◽  
William D. Rosehart
Joule ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara C. Pryor ◽  
Rebecca J. Barthelmie ◽  
Tristan J. Shepherd

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2573
Author(s):  
Kena Likassa Nefabas ◽  
Lennart Söder ◽  
Mengesha Mamo ◽  
Jon Olauson

Ethiopia has huge wind energy potential. In order to be able to simulate the power system operation, hourly time series of wind power is needed. These can be obtained from ERA5 data but first a realistic model is needed. Therefore, in this paper ERA5 reanalysis data were used to model wind power production at two topographically different and distant regions of Ethiopian wind farms—Adama II and Ashegoda. Wind speed was extracted from the ERA5 nearest grid point, bi-linearly interpolated to farms location and statistically down-scaled to increase its resolution at the site. Finally, the speed is extrapolated to hub-height of turbine and converted to power through farm specific power curve to compare with actual data for validation. The results from the model and historical data of wind farms are compared using performance error metrics like hourly mean absolute error (MAE) and hourly root mean square error (RMSE). When comparing with data from Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP), we found hourly MAE and RMSE of 2.5% and 4.54% for Adama II and 2.32% and 5.29% for Ashegoda wind farms respectively, demonstrating a good correlation between the measured and our simulation model result. Thus, this model can be extended to other parts of the country to forecast future wind power production, as well as to indicate simulation of wind power production potential for planning and policy applications using ERA5 reanalysis data. To the best of our knowledge, such modeling of wind power production using reanalysis data has not yet been tried and no researcher has validated generation output against measurement in the country.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elis Nycander ◽  
Lennart Söder

<pre>Efficient integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind power into power systems requires methods for power system operation planning that account for VRE uncertainty and variability. This has motivated extensive research into unit commitment (UC) and optimal power flow (OPF) formulations with VRE uncertainty. However, these formulations are often tested using significantly simplified representations of VRE production. We seek to address this issue by providing a model for generating realistic wind power scenarios using real production and forecast data. The scenarios are generated using 5-min production and 30-min forecast data for real wind farms from Australia. The model captures the empirical distribution of the forecast errors and the covariance between different wind farms. The high time resolution of the production data also allows the recreation of the high-frequency (5-min) component of wind power production. The resulting model is openly available, and can be used to generate wind power scenarios for use in formulations for operation planning of power systems (UC/OPF) considering wind uncertainty and intra-hour variability. The scenarios can be tailored according to preferences for, e.g., the number of wind farms and their geographical dispersion.</pre>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elis Nycander ◽  
Lennart Söder

<pre>Efficient integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind power into power systems requires methods for power system operation planning that account for VRE uncertainty and variability. This has motivated extensive research into unit commitment (UC) and optimal power flow (OPF) formulations with VRE uncertainty. However, these formulations are often tested using significantly simplified representations of VRE production. We seek to address this issue by providing a model for generating realistic wind power scenarios using real production and forecast data. The scenarios are generated using 5-min production and 30-min forecast data for real wind farms from Australia. The model captures the empirical distribution of the forecast errors and the covariance between different wind farms. The high time resolution of the production data also allows the recreation of the high-frequency (5-min) component of wind power production. The resulting model is openly available, and can be used to generate wind power scenarios for use in formulations for operation planning of power systems (UC/OPF) considering wind uncertainty and intra-hour variability. The scenarios can be tailored according to preferences for, e.g., the number of wind farms and their geographical dispersion.</pre>


Wind Energy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi‐Hui Wang ◽  
Ryan K. Walter ◽  
Crow White ◽  
Matthew D. Kehrli ◽  
Benjamin Ruttenberg

Author(s):  
Caitlin Forinash ◽  
Bryony DuPont

An Extended Pattern Search (EPS) method is developed to optimize the layout and turbine geometry for offshore floating wind power systems. The EPS combines a deterministic pattern search with stochastic extensions. Three advanced models are incorporated: (1) a cost model considering investment and lifetime costs of a floating offshore wind farm comprised of WindFloat platforms; (2) a wake propagation and interaction model able to determine the reduced wind speeds downstream of rotating blades; and (3) a power model to determine power produced at each rotor, and includes a semi-continuous, discrete turbine geometry selection to optimize the rotor radius and hub height of individual turbines. The objective function maximizes profit by minimizing cost, minimizing wake interactions, and maximizing power production. A multidirectional, multiple wind speed case is modeled which is representative of real wind site conditions. Layouts are optimized within a square solution space for optimal positioning and turbine geometry for farms containing a varying number of turbines. Resulting layouts are presented; optimized layouts are biased towards dominant wind directions. Preliminary results will inform developers of best practices to include in the design and installation of offshore floating wind farms, and of the resulting cost and power production of wind farms that are computationally optimized for realistic wind conditions.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4291
Author(s):  
Paxis Marques João Roque ◽  
Shyama Pada Chowdhury ◽  
Zhongjie Huan

District of Namaacha in Maputo Province of Mozambique presents a high wind potential, with an average wind speed of around 7.5 m/s and huge open fields that are favourable to the installation of wind farms. However, in order to make better use of the wind potential, it is necessary to evaluate the operating conditions of the turbines and guide the independent power producers (IPPs) on how to efficiently use wind power. The investigation of the wind farm operating conditions is justified by the fact that the implementation of wind power systems is quite expensive, and therefore, it is imperative to find alternatives to reduce power losses and improve energy production. Taking into account the power needs in Mozambique, this project applied hybrid optimisation of multiple energy resources (HOMER) to size the capacity of the wind farm and the number of turbines that guarantee an adequate supply of power. Moreover, considering the topographic conditions of the site and the operational parameters of the turbines, the system advisor model (SAM) was applied to evaluate the performance of the Vestas V82-1.65 horizontal axis turbines and the system’s power output as a result of the wake effect. For any wind farm, it is evident that wind turbines’ wake effects significantly reduce the performance of wind farms. The paper seeks to design and examine the proper layout for practical placements of wind generators. Firstly, a survey on the Namaacha’s electricity demand was carried out in order to obtain the district’s daily load profile required to size the wind farm’s capacity. Secondly, with the previous knowledge that the operation of wind farms is affected by wake losses, different wake effect models applied by SAM were examined and the Eddy–Viscosity model was selected to perform the analysis. Three distinct layouts result from SAM optimisation, and the best one is recommended for wind turbines installation for maximising wind to energy generation. Although it is understood that the wake effect occurs on any wind farm, it is observed that wake losses can be minimised through the proper design of the wind generators’ placement layout. Therefore, any wind farm project should, from its layout, examine the optimal wind farm arrangement, which will depend on the wind speed, wind direction, turbine hub height, and other topographical characteristics of the area. In that context, considering the topographic and climate features of Mozambique, the study brings novelty in the way wind farms should be placed in the district and wake losses minimised. The study is based on a real assumption that the project can be implemented in the district, and thus, considering the wind farm’s capacity, the district’s energy needs could be met. The optimal transversal and longitudinal distances between turbines recommended are 8Do and 10Do, respectively, arranged according to layout 1, with wake losses of about 1.7%, land utilisation of about 6.46 Km2, and power output estimated at 71.844 GWh per year.


2013 ◽  
Vol 724-725 ◽  
pp. 655-658
Author(s):  
Rui Jing Shi ◽  
Xiao Chao Fan ◽  
Feng Ting Li ◽  
Bo Wei

The application of power communication system in the field of wind power mainly includes the overall system communication and local field communication. During the operation of wind farms, the total system requires that the electric power communication system should provide reliable rapid information channel, accuracy of transmission on a variety of digital business. This article will focus on the application of power communication system between the wind turbine and the booster station, which includes optical fiber communication, communication and leased public circuit, as well as the cable communication, wireless communication, microwave wireless communication. Finally, in the premise of various communications comparison, according to the actual situation of the wind power field, the network transmission rate and reliability should be considered to the requirements of power market.


Author(s):  
J. A. Orosa ◽  
E. J. García-Bustelo ◽  
A. C. Oliveira

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