Risk estimation of the disaster waste generated by both ground motion and tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroki Ishibashi ◽  
Mitsuyoshi Akiyama ◽  
Takayuki Kojima ◽  
Koki Aoki ◽  
Shunichi Koshimura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Risk Estimation

On Canadian methodologies of probabilistic seismic risk estimation

1979 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1549-1566
Author(s):  
D. H. Weichert ◽  
W. G. Milne
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Comparison Of The Results

abstract Three probabilistic methods for the estimation of seismic risk have been used in Canada. A reevaluation of the extreme value method shows no advantages over the average value method of Milne and Davenport. Conceptual improvements in the underlying assumptions of the latter method are a constrained release of historical earthquakes from their presumed epicenters and the averaging of earthquake rates over variable periods. Risk estimation can then proceed as suggested by Cornell. Comparison of the results of this modification of the average number method shows similar results as the Milne and Davenport average value method. The stability of risk estimates against new earthquakes is improved, but sensitivities at typical sites toward unavoidable deterministic elements in the model are similar to the older method. For certain site-source-seismicity combinations probabilistic estimates of ground motion could become almost quasi-deterministic.

Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 254-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Maeda ◽  
Hiroyuki Fujiwara ◽  
Toshihiko Hayakawa ◽  
Satsuki Shimono ◽  
Sho Akagi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Principal Components ◽  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Motion Simulation ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
Ground Motion Simulation ◽  
Megathrust Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Long Period Ground Motion

We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorized into 30 clusters. In addition, based on clustering results, we determined that extracting relationships between principal components and scenario parameters is possible. Furthermore, by utilizing these relationships, it may be possible to easily estimate the approximate ground-motion distribution from the principal components of arbitrary sets of scenario parameters.

scholarly journals Integrated Ground Motion and Tsunami Simulation for the 1944 Tonankai Earthquake Using High-Performance Supercomputers

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takashi Furumura ◽  
◽  
Tatsuhiko Saito
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Nankai Trough ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
Navier Stokes Equation ◽  
Integrated Simulation ◽  
Rupture Model ◽  
Tonankai Earthquake ◽  
Long Period Ground Motion

An integrated simulation of seismic wave and tsunami has been developed for mitigation of earthquake and tsunami disasters associated with large subduction-zone earthquakes occurring in the Nankai Trough. The ground motion due to the earthquake is firstly calculated by solving equation of motions with heterogeneous source-rupture model and 3-D heterogeneous subsurface structural model. Tsunami generation and propagation in heterogeneous bathymetry is then simulated by solving the 3-D Navier-Stokes equation. Ground motion and tsunami simulations are combined through an appropriate dynamic boundary condition at the sea floor. Thanks to supercomputers and efficient parallel computing, we are reproducing strong ground motion and tsunamis caused by the M8.0 Tonankai earthquake in the Nankai Trough in 1944. The visualized seismic wavefield and tsunami derived by integrated simulation provides a direct understanding of disasters associated with Nankai Trough earthquakes with the development of long-period ground motion in highly populated basins such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya and tsunamis striking along Japan’s Pacific Ocean coast.

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