The use of Stick‐IT model for the prediction of direct economic losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gaetani d'Aragona ◽  
Maria Polese ◽  
Marco Di Ludovico ◽  
Andrea Prota
Keyword(s):  
Economic Losses ◽  
Direct Economic Losses

scholarly journals Evaluation of Helminth Infections Identified in Slaughtered Livestock in Iran, 2015-2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Kiani ◽  
Christine M. Budke ◽  
Ebrahim Shams Abadi ◽  
Soheil Hashtarkhani ◽  
Amene Raouf Rahmati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Direct Costs ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Northern Iran ◽  
Helminth Infections ◽  
High Infection ◽  
Northwestern Iran ◽  
Direct Economic Losses

Abstract Introduction: Helminth infections of livestock can result in considerable economic losses. This study aims to evaluate the spatial frequency of cystic echinococcosis (CE), dicrocoeliasis, and fascioliasis in livestock slaughtered in Iran during the years 2015-2019 and estimate direct costs associated with organ condemnation due to these parasites.Methods: Abattoir data from all 31 Iranian provinces were collected from the Iran Veterinary Organization. Infection prevalence was calculated per year at the province level. The Local Moran's I statistic was performed to evaluate spatial autocorrelation of animals positive at slaughter for the years 2015-2019. Direct costs associated with condemned livers were calculated for each parasitic condition. Results: Overall prevalence values for the study timeframe were as follows: sheep and goat fascioliasis (1.5%, 910,282/58,393,349), cattle fascioliasis (3.8%, 23,3175/6,038,419), sheep and goat dicrocoeliasis (4.6%; 270,1274/58,393,349), cattle dicrocoeliasis (3.1%; 186,009/6,038,419), sheep and goat CE (5.3%; 3,108,767/58,393,349), and cattle CE (7.2%; 438,534/6,038,419). Northwestern Iran had the highest prevalence of CE and fascioliasis. High infection areas for Dicrocoelium spp. included the provinces of Zanjan, Gilan, Qazvin, and Tehran, which are located in northern Iran. Direct economic losses for sheep and goat fascioliasis, dicrocoeliasis, and CE for the study period were US$13,841,826, US$41,768,472, and US$22,801,296, respectively. Direct economic losses for cattle fascioliasis, dicrocoeliasis, and CE for the study period were US$1,989,582, US$1,669,289, and US$2,656,535, respectively.Conclusion: Our findings provide valuable data for future monitoring of these important parasitic diseases in Iranian livestock. Disease control strategies are required to reduce the economic and public health impact of these helminths.

Building an Awareness Model of Emergency Supplies Dispatching for Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Guangxi

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-171
Author(s):  
Guoyou Yue ◽  
Boonsub Panichakarn
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Beibu Gulf ◽  
Distribution Centers ◽  
Emergency Logistics ◽  
Displaced People ◽  
Direct Economic Losses ◽  
The Impact

It is found that Guangxi is affected by many tropical cyclones (generally referred to as typhoons in China) every year. According to the statistics of typhoons that entered the inland of Guangxi from 1970 to 2013, 89 typhoons entered Guangxi in 44 years, with an average of 2 typhoons per year (Jing Li, Liyan Qi, 2015). And these tropical cyclone disasters have caused a large number of casualties and economic losses in Guangxi. Typhoon No. 0606 "Prapiroon" entered Guangxi from Yulin city, causing 74 counties (cities and districts) in Guangxi to suffer disasters, affecting 5.76 million people, killing 34 people and causing direct economic losses of 7 billion yuan (Jing Li, et al., 2007). In addition, according to the report of Guangxi Civil Affairs Department, super typhoon No. 1409 "Rammasun" landed in Fangchenggang area of Beibu Gulf, causing 4.3211 million people in 11 cities and 57 counties (cities and districts) including Beihai and Fangchenggang to suffer disaster, affecting 1.456 million hectares of crops, 8,527 farmhouses collapsed, and the direct economic losses reached 13.84 billion yuan. Moreover, the number and intensity of tropical cyclone that caused serious damage to Guangxi increased gradually. The damage caused by tropical cyclone is very huge, the disaster area is widely distributed, and the loss of many people is also very large. How to deliver the emergency supplies to the victims timely at minimum cost becomes the key to disaster relief. But the emergency supplies dispatching involves many problems. Because the displaced people are distributed in different settlements. The extent of the impact varies from place to place and the type and amount of emergency supplies needed. The distance between settlements and distribution centers varies from place to place, as does the connectivity of roads. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an awareness model for emergency supplies dispatching to solve these problems, so that emergency agencies of governments at all levels can make emergency supplies dispatching scheme faster and improve disaster relief effects. Keywords: Emergency Logistics, Tropical Cyclone Disasters, Emergency Supplies Dispatching, Transshipment Problem, Guangxi

Cost Estimation Method of Post-Earthquake Rehabilitation of Power System

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 3083-3086
Author(s):  
Yan Ru Wang ◽  
Jun Wu Dai ◽  
Mao Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Adjustment Factor ◽  
System Cost ◽  
Rehabilitation Work ◽  
5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Direct Economic Losses

Power system related to the people's livelihood is an important lifeline and its rapid post-earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction is particularly important. Considering the importance of power system, cost estimation method of post-earthquake rehabilitation of power system is proposed. Based on the direct economic losses of power system, post-earthquake rehabilitation cost is given by index of the post-earthquake adjustment factor which is put forward according to post-earthquake rehabilitation cost and direct economic losses of power system in “5.12” Wenchuan earthquake. Cost estimation method of post-earthquake rehabilitation of power system could provide good suggestions for post-earthquake rehabilitation work.

Trend Study on Economic Loss Induced by Typhoon Disaster in Chinas Southeast Coast

2013 ◽  
Vol 353-356 ◽  
pp. 2353-2356
Author(s):  
Bei Lei Xu ◽  
Li Ding Liu ◽  
Bai Feng Ji
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
Southeast Coast ◽  
Typhoon Disaster ◽  
Direct Economic Losses

Chinas southeast coast is one of the regions with most severely influenced by typhoons in the world, which suffers significant casualties and huge economic losses every year. In this paper, the trends of economic loss educed by typhoon disaster in coastal areas of southeastern china were studied using regression analysis methods. Firstly, the data sources were introduced and the typhoon landing areas are all over the east coast of China were analyzed.Then, development trends of the affected area , deaths, houses collapsed and the direct economic losses were studied in detail. The results indicate that the affected area and deaths induced by typhoon disaster fluctuate greatly and the number of deaths has been showing a declining trend. The linear regression, exponential regression and logistic regression analysis results all indicate that the number of houses collapsed due to Typhoon present a downward trend year by year while the direct economic losses induced by typhoon disaster present an upward trend year by year.

Study on the Evaluation Models of Direct Economic Losses in Urban Flood Disasters

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 4878-4882
Author(s):  
De Cai Kong ◽  
Feng Ping Wu
Keyword(s):  
Loss Rate ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
General Process ◽  
Evaluation Models ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Direct Economic Losses ◽  
Disaster System

Based on disaster system theory, flood risk assessment was conducted in regard to natural properties of hazard and environment as well as socioeconomics of hazard-affected bodies. The general process of economic loss evaluation in flood was consisted of two parts, namely the evaluation of pre-disaster value of hazard-affected bodies and the determination of direct economic loss rate in the flood disaster. At last, the evaluation models of direct economic losses in urban flood were established.

Classification and Prediction of Economic Losses - Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province of China

2013 ◽  
Vol 709 ◽  
pp. 928-935
Author(s):  
Ling Di Zhao ◽  
Qing Hao
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Direct Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Indices

This paper took Guangdong province as an example, using the statistical data of twenty times storm surges from 2003 to 2010 to evaluate the disasters and predict the economic losses. We expected it to supply with sound references and proof for the decision-makers to prevent storm surges. With economic indices of direct economic losses, collapsed houses, damaged farmland area, et al., this paper used entropy method and factor analysis method to grade the storm surges into separate levels, which are the mild disaster, the moderate disaster, the serious disaster and the extra serious disaster. By BP neural networks and gray prediction method, we established the evaluation and prediction models of direct economic losses. Comparing the results of both methods, it found that neural network is more applicable and accurate to predict the economic losses of storm surges.

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