Adjusting a finite population block kriging estimator for imperfect detection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Higham ◽  
Jay Ver Hoef ◽  
Lisa Madsen ◽  
Andy Aderman
Keyword(s):  
Finite Population ◽  
Block Kriging ◽  
Imperfect Detection

Investigation of Accuracy of a Calibrated Estimator of a Ratio by Modelling

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-342
Author(s):  
V. Chadyšas ◽  
D. Krapavickaitė
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Taylor Series ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Finite Population ◽  
Taylor Series Expansion ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Parameter Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Estimator of finite population parameter – ratio of totals of two variables – is investigated by modelling in the case of simple random sampling. Traditional estimator of the ratio is compared with the calibrated estimator of the ratio introduced by Plikusas [1]. The Taylor series expansion of the estimators are used for the expressions of approximate biases and approximate variances [2]. Some estimator of bias is introduced in this paper. Using data of artificial population the accuracy of two estimators of the ratio is compared by modelling. Dependence of the estimates of mean square error of the estimators of the ratio on the correlation coefficient of variables which are used in the numerator and denominator, is also shown in the modelling.

scholarly journals Population estimates of Antillean manatees in Puerto Rico: an analytical framework for aerial surveys using multi-pass removal sampling

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 1340-1349
Author(s):  
Jaime A Collazo ◽  
Matthew J Krachey ◽  
Kenneth H Pollock ◽  
Francisco J Pérez-Aguilo ◽  
Jan P Zegarra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Detection Probability ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Aerial Surveys ◽  
Population Size Estimates

AbstractEffective management of the threatened Antillean manatee (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Puerto Rico requires reliable estimates of population size. Estimates are needed to assess population responses to management actions, and whether recovery objectives have been met. Aerial surveys have been conducted since 1976, but none adjusted for imperfect detection. We summarize surveys since 1976, report on current distribution, and provide population estimates after accounting for apparent detection probability for surveys between June 2010 and March 2014. Estimates in areas of high concentration (hotspots) averaged 317 ± 101, three times higher than unadjusted counts (104 ± 0.56). Adjusted estimates in three areas outside hotspots also differed markedly from counts (75 ± 9.89 versus 19.5 ± 3.5). Average minimum island-wide estimate was 386 ± 89, similar to the maximum estimate of 360 suggested in 2005, but fewer than the 700 recently suggested by the Puerto Rico Manatee Conservation Center. Manatees were more widespread than previously understood. Improving estimates, locally or island-wide, will require stratifying the island differently and greater knowledge about factors affecting detection probability. Sharing our protocol with partners in nearby islands (e.g., Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola), whose populations share genetic make-up, would contribute to enhanced regional conservation through better population estimates and tracking range expansion.El manejo efectivo del manatí antillano amenazado en Puerto Rico requiere estimados de tamaños de poblaciónes confiables. Dichas estimaciones poblacionales son necesarias para evaluar las respuestas a las acciones de manejo, y para determinar si los objetivos de recuperación han sido alcanzados. Se han realizado censos aéreos desde 1976, pero ninguno de ellos han sido ajustados para detecciones imperfectas. Aquí resumimos los censos desde 1976, actualizamos la distribución, y reportamos los primeros estimados poblacionales ajustados para la probabilidad de detección aparente en los censos de Junio 2010 a Marzo 2014. Las estimaciones poblacionales en áreas de mayor concentración del manatí promedió 317 ± 103, tres veces más abundante que los conteos sin ajuste (104 ± 0.56). Las estimaciones poblacionales en tres áreas fuera de las áreas de mayor concentración del manatí también fueron marcadamente diferentes (75 ± 9.89 vs 19.5 ± 3.5). El estimado mínimo poblacional en la isla entera fue de 386 ± 89, similar al estimado máximo de 360 sugerido en el año 2005, pero menor a los 700 sugeridos recientemente por el Centro de Conservación de Manatíes de Puerto Rico. Documentamos que el manatí tiene una distribución más amplia de lo que se sabía con anterioridad. El mejoramiento de los estimados poblacionales locales o a nivel de isla requerirá que se estratifique a la isla en forma diferente y que se investiguen los factores que influencian a la probabilidad de detección. Compartir protocolos como este con colaboradores de islas vecinas (por. ej., Cuba, Jamaica, Española), cuyas poblaciones de manatíes comparten material genético, contribuiría a la conservación regional mediante mejores estimaciones poblacionales y monitoreo de la expansión de su ámbito doméstico.

scholarly journals Recombination Can Evolve in Large Finite Populations Given Selection on Sufficient Loci

Genetics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 165 (4) ◽  
pp. 2249-2258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M Iles ◽  
Kevin Walters ◽  
Chris Cannings
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Genetic Drift ◽  
Finite Population ◽  
Selective Advantage ◽  
Indirect Selection ◽  
Small Populations ◽  
Finite Populations ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Population Recombination

AbstractIt is well known that an allele causing increased recombination is expected to proliferate as a result of genetic drift in a finite population undergoing selection, without requiring other mechanisms. This is supported by recent simulations apparently demonstrating that, in small populations, drift is more important than epistasis in increasing recombination, with this effect disappearing in larger finite populations. However, recent experimental evidence finds a greater advantage for recombination in larger populations. These results are reconciled by demonstrating through simulation without epistasis that for m loci recombination has an appreciable selective advantage over a range of population sizes (am, bm). bm increases steadily with m while am remains fairly static. Thus, however large the finite population, if selection acts on sufficiently many loci, an allele that increases recombination is selected for. We show that as selection acts on our finite population, recombination increases the variance in expected log fitness, causing indirect selection on a recombination-modifying locus. This effect is enhanced in those populations with more loci because the variance in phenotypic fitnesses in relation to the possible range will be smaller. Thus fixation of a particular haplotype is less likely to occur, increasing the advantage of recombination.

scholarly journals Dark states of quantum search cause imperfect detection

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Thiel ◽  
Itay Mualem ◽  
Dror Meidan ◽  
Eli Barkai ◽  
David A. Kessler
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Search ◽  
Imperfect Detection

scholarly journals A finite population destroys a traveling wave in spatial replicator dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 110847
Author(s):  
Christopher Griffin ◽  
Riley Mummah ◽  
Russ deForest
Keyword(s):  
Traveling Wave ◽  
Finite Population ◽  
Replicator Dynamics

scholarly journals Imperfect detection biases extinction‐debt assessments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fielding A. Montgomery ◽  
Scott M. Reid ◽  
Nicholas E. Mandrak
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Debt ◽  
Imperfect Detection

scholarly journals Modelling the Spatial Distribution of ASF-Positive Wild Boar Carcasses in South Korea Using 2019–2020 National Surveillance Data

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1208
Author(s):  
Jun-Sik Lim ◽  
Timothée Vergne ◽  
Son-Il Pak ◽  
Eutteum Kim
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Wild Boar ◽  
African Swine Fever Virus ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Wild Boars

In September 2019, African swine fever (ASF) was reported in South Korea for the first time. Since then, more than 651 ASF cases in wild boars and 14 farm outbreaks have been notified in the country. Despite the efforts to eradicate ASF among wild boar populations, the number of reported ASF-positive wild boar carcasses have increased recently. The purpose of this study was to characterize the spatial distribution of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses to identify the risk factors associated with the presence and number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in the affected areas. Because surveillance efforts have substantially increased in early 2020, we divided the study into two periods (2 October 2019 to 19 January 2020, and 19 January to 28 April 2020) based on the number of reported cases and aggregated the number of reported ASF-positive carcasses into a regular grid of hexagons of 3-km diameter. To account for imperfect detection of positive carcasses, we adjusted spatial zero-inflated Poisson regression models to the number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses per hexagon. During the first study period, proximity to North Korea was identified as the major risk factor for the presence of African swine fever virus. In addition, there were more positive carcasses reported in affected hexagons with high habitat suitability for wild boars, low heat load index (HLI), and high human density. During the second study period, proximity to an ASF-positive carcass reported during the first period was the only significant risk factor for the presence of ASF-positive carcasses. Additionally, low HLI and elevation were associated with an increased number of ASF-positive carcasses reported in the affected hexagons. Although the proportion of ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.06 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.05–0.07) to 0.09 (95% CrI: 0.08–0.10), the probability of reporting at least one positive carcass in ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.49 (95% CrI: 0.41–0.57) to 0.73 (95% CrI: 0.66–0.81) between the two study periods. These results can be used to further advance risk-based surveillance strategies in the Republic of Korea.

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