Reliability analysis of ultra-high voltage DC transmission system by event tree analysis

1984 ◽  
Vol 104 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuo Ohba ◽  
Toshiyuki Hayashi ◽  
Yukio Yoshida ◽  
Kazuhiro Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
High Voltage ◽  
Transmission System ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Ultra High Voltage

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Level of Reliability in Hazardous Technological Processes

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Darja Gabriska
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Entire System ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Tree Analysis

In an automated systems environment is very important to predicted failures or unexpected situations to achieve system reliability. Failure of such systems can cause serious property damage, the environment, damage to human health or cause death. The essential task is to determine the tolerable and acceptable risk. The required level of risk for safety-critical systems can be achieved by using international technical standards and applying safety functions. Safety functions are implemented using an electrical/electronic/programmable electronics (E/E/PE) safety-related system. Technical standards offer the aspect of balancing risk tolerability according to the relevant, reliable safety functions. Based on the specific architecture of the whole system, it is possible to determine the maximum failure rate of the probability of failure on demand (PFDSYS) of the selected architecture. Subsequent application of reliability analysis using the event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) methods can optimize the failure rate of the entire system. Application of reliability analysis using event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) methods can only theoretically optimize the failure rate of the entire system with constant initial conditions and constant parameters of the reliability functions. The article proposes a new methodology for dynamic analysis of the state of system reliability as a function of the system operation time, maintenance frequency and system architecture. As a result of the methodology is a library of standard element architectures and simulation models which allows predicting and optimizing the reliability of E/E/PE safety-related systems.

Event Tree Analysis

2017 ◽  
pp. 141-154
Author(s):  
Sasho Andonov
Keyword(s):  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis

scholarly journals Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Wheeler ◽  
Matthew R. Denman ◽  
R. A. Williams ◽  
Nevin Martin ◽  
Zachary Kyle Jankovsky
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Discrete Dynamic ◽  
Dynamic Event

Application of Bayesian Networks in Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 340-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongbao Zhou ◽  
Xuan Zeng ◽  
Haitao Li ◽  
Siya Lui ◽  
Chaoqun Ma
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Event

Development of Accidental Scenarios Involving Human Errors for Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Taverna Martins Pereira de Abreu ◽  
Marcos Coelho Maturana ◽  
Marcelo Ramos Martins
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Human Performance ◽  
Typical Feature ◽  
Performance Model ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Technical Failure ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis

Abstract The navigation in restricted waters imposes several challenges when compared to open sea navigation. Smaller dimensions, higher traffic density and the dynamics of obstacles such as sandbanks are examples of contributors to the difficulty. Due to these aspects, local experienced maritime pilots go onboard in order to support the ship’s crew with their skills and specific regional knowledge. Despite these efforts, several accidents still occur around the world. In order to contribute to a better understanding of the events composing accidental sequences, this paper presents a hybrid modelling specific for restricted waters. The main techniques used are the fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. The former provides a framework to investigate the causes, while the latter allows modelling the sequence of actions necessary to avoid an accident. The models are quantified using statistical data available in the literature and a prospective human performance model developed by the Technique for Early Consideration of Human Reliability (TECHR). The results include combined estimates of human error probabilities and technical failure probabilities, which can be used to inform the causation factor for a waterway risk analysis model. In other words, given that the ship encounters a potential accidental scenario while navigating, the proposed models allow computing the failure probability that of the evasive actions sequence. The novelty of this work resides on the possibility of explicitly considering dynamicity and recovery actions when computing the causation factor, what is not a typical feature of similar works. The results obtained were compared with several results available in the literature and have been shown to be compatible.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 3790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwei Xu ◽  
Kaili Xu
Keyword(s):  
Metallurgical Industry ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Fatal Accidents ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Bow Tie

The metallurgical industry is a significant component of the national economy. The main purpose of this study was to establish a composite risk analysis method for fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. We collected 152 fatal accidents in the Chinese metallurgical industry from 2001 to 2018, including 141 major accidents, 10 severe accidents, and 1 extraordinarily severe accident, together resulting in 731 deaths. Different from traffic or chemical industry accidents, most of the accidents in the metallurgical industry are poisoning and asphyxiation accidents, which account for 40% of the total number of fatal accidents. As the original statistical data of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry have irregular fluctuations, the traditional prediction methods, such as linear or quadratic regression models, cannot be used to predict their future characteristics. To overcome this issue, the grey interval predicting method and the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory are introduced to predict the future characteristics of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry. Different from a fault tree analysis or event tree analysis, the bow tie model integrates the basic causes, possible consequences, and corresponding safety measures of an accident in a transparent diagram. In this study, the bow tie model was used to identify the causes and consequences of fatal accidents in the metallurgical industry; then, corresponding safety measures were adopted to reduce the risk.

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