scholarly journals Choosing priors in Bayesian ecological models by simulating from the prior predictive distribution

Ecosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff S. Wesner ◽  
Justin P. F. Pomeranz
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Ecological Models

scholarly journals Choosing priors in Bayesian ecological models by simulating from the prior predictive distribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff S. Wesner ◽  
Justin F.P. Pomeranz
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Food Competition ◽  
Ecological Models ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Informative Priors ◽  
Response Variable ◽  
Bayesian Data Analysis ◽  
Prior Specification ◽  
Body Sizes

Bayesian data analysis is increasingly used in ecology, but prior specification remains focused on choosing non-informative priors (e.g., flat or vague priors). One barrier to choosing more informative priors is that priors must be specified on model parameters (e.g., intercepts, slopes, sigmas), but prior knowledge often exists on the level of the response variable. This is particularly true for common models in ecology, like generalized linear mixed models, which may have a link function and dozens of parameters, each of which needs a prior distribution. We suggest that this difficulty can be overcome by simulating from the prior predictive distribution and visualizing the results on the scale of the response variable. In doing so, some common choices for non-informative priors on parameters can easily be seen to produce biologically impossible values of response variables. Such implications of prior choices are difficult to foresee without visualization. We demonstrate a workflow for prior selection using simulation and visualization with two ecological examples (predator-prey body sizes and spider responses to food competition). This approach is not new, but its adoption by ecologists will help to better incorporate prior information in ecological models, thereby maximizing one of the benefits of Bayesian data analysis.

Impact of long-term trials on crop production research and education

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Jolánkai ◽  
F. Nyárai ◽  
K. Kassai
Keyword(s):  
Crop Production ◽  
Life Sciences ◽  
Ecological Models ◽  
Dynamic Databases ◽  
Production Research ◽  
Research And Education

Long-term trials have a twofold role in life sciences, acting as both live laboratories and public collections. Long-term trials are not simply scientific curios or the honoured relics of a museum, but highly valuable live ecological models that can never be replaced or restarted if once terminated or suspended. These trials provide valuable and dynamic databases for solving scientific problems. The present paper is intended to give a brief summary of the crop production aspects of long-term trials.

Predictive distribution models of European hake in the south-central Mediterranean Sea

Hydrobiologia ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 821 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Garofalo ◽  
S. Fezzani ◽  
F. Gargano ◽  
G. Milisenda ◽  
O. Ben Abdallah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
The South ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
South Central ◽  
Central Mediterranean Sea ◽  
European Hake
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