scholarly journals Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 6833-6848
Author(s):  
Paweł Bogawski ◽  
Theo Damen ◽  
Maciej M. Nowak ◽  
Katarzyna Pędziwiatr ◽  
Paul Wilkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Potential

scholarly journals Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Resquin ◽  
Joaquín Duque-Lazo ◽  
Cristina Acosta-Muñoz ◽  
Cecilia Rachid-Casnati ◽  
Leonidas Carrasco-Letelier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Eucalyptus Grandis ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
High Susceptibility ◽  
Productive Potential ◽  
Potential Habitats ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
South Of Brazil

Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have differences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for different climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater effect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

scholarly journals Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1816
Author(s):  
Gerson Meza Mori ◽  
Elgar Barboza Castillo ◽  
Cristóbal Torres Guzmán ◽  
Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez ◽  
Betty K. Guzman Valqui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
High Potential ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Protected Natural Areas ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Sustainable Conservation

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

Present and future potential distribution of the endemic Perote ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus perotensis) under different climate change scenarios

Mammalia ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Arturo García-Domínguez ◽  
Octavio Rafael Rojas-Soto ◽  
Jorge R. Galindo-González ◽  
Alberto González-Romero ◽  
María del Rosario Pineda-López ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ground Squirrel ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Potential

scholarly journals The sustainable use of groundwater resources concerning further climate change scenarios in Ulaanbaatar City Area, Mongolia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorjsuren Dechinlkhundev ◽  
Munkhtsetseg Zorigt ◽  
Ijiltsetseg Dorjsuren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract To estimate groundwater resources under changing climate is one of the important issues for Ulaanbaatar City in the Tuul river basin of Mongolia. The main water supply is provided from groundwater and demand has been increasing due to the rapid growth of population and economic development. There have not been any complete studies to assess climate change impact on groundwater resources for Ulaanbaatar city. Therefore, in this study we proposed to estimate future potential resources of the groundwater from the main wellfields in the city using the AnAqSim (Analytic Aquifer Simulator) model. The model calibration was performed on 10 wellfields during the reference period from 1960 to 2015. Based on the reliable calibration results for the natural conditions, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources was assessed to use the projected HadCM3 scenario for the periods 2046–2065 and 2080–2099. The results of the study contribute to a water management plan for the city to recommend seasonal abstraction.

scholarly journals CONTEMPORARY AND FUTURE POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF Cedrela fissilis Vell. UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvane de Fátima Siqueira ◽  
Pedro Higuchi ◽  
Ana Carolina da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Genetic Rescue ◽  
Conservation Units ◽  
Global Biodiversity Information Facility ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Niche ◽  
Future Potential

ABSTRACT The objective of the present work was to model the climate niche of Cedrela fissilis Vell. and to project the contemporary and future potential spatial distribution considering different climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from the SpeciesLink and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) databases. Altitude data, and 19 climate variables for both present and future conditions were obtained from the WorldClim database. The spatial prediction for the year 2070, considering an optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic one (RCP 8.5), was defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding the concentration of greenhouse gases. The climate niche modeling was performed using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results showed that C. fissilis has a wide geographic distribution, occurring in most South American countries. Its distribution showed a high correlation associated with the isothermal and precipitation variables in the humid month. In future scenarios, impacts on the climatic suitability of the areas in which the species occur, will not be spatially homogeneous. Indeed, reductions of about 47% (RCP4.5) and 63% (RCP8.5) are expected. It is recommended the creation and expansion of Conservation Units (CU) in areas that will remain climatically suitable for this species. The areas that will not have a favorable climate in the future should be considered strategic for genetic rescue and establishment of germplasm banks. Areas changing into a favorable climate should be considered as new areas of ecological and forestry interest.

Assessing impacts of future potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

2018 ◽  
Vol 567 ◽  
pp. 803-819 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
Francisco J. Alcalá
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Potential Climate Change

scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2671 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Oğuz Çoban ◽  
Ömer K. Örücü ◽  
E. Seda Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

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