Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2013-2030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie M. Lydersen ◽  
Brandon M. Collins ◽  
Matthew L. Brooks ◽  
John R. Matchett ◽  
Kristen L. Shive ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Fuels Management ◽  
Extreme Fire

Are fire probabilistic products an effective early warning tool in the management of prevention fire activities? – the case of Monchique 2018 wildfire.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Durao ◽  
Catarina Alonso ◽  
Celia Gouveia
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Radiative Energy ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Very High ◽  
Extreme Fire

<p>At the beginning of August 2018 Portugal experienced extreme fire prone meteorological conditions with very hot and dry air, driven by the occurrence of a severe fire event in Southern Portugal, noun as Monchique wildfire. The severe wildfire probability occurrence was re-enhanced by the substantial fuel amount accumulated since the last extreme wildfire occurred over this region in August 2003. On the 2<sup>nd </sup>August 2018, extreme fire danger conditions were predicted for Monchique region and the fire started on the 3<sup>rd</sup> and lasting till the 10th of August, with the evacuation of people from several villages and the associated burnt area of 27000 ha (ICNF, https://www.icnf.pt/). This event posed hard challenges on suppression activities due to its exceptional severity, related to high values of fire radiative energy released. This work aims to study the driving factors of Monchique wildfire in 2018 and assessing the usefulness of fire probabilistic products disseminated up to 72 hours in advance, as an early warning tool in fire prevention and suppression activities. The assessment of fire danger conditions was done based on ensemble forecasts fire products of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), provided by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS); and based on fire danger metrics produced by Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) for the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) were selected from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Indices System (CFFWIS) to describe the meteorological fire danger of Monchique event.</p><p>The assessment of fire severity was based on the Fire Radiative Energy (FRE) released by the fire, computed from the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) product delivered in near real-time by EUMETSAT Land Surface Analysis Satellite Applications Facility (LSA SAF) (https://landsaf.ipma.pt/en).</p><p>FWI and FFMC ensemble results based on CAMS dataset, 24 hours before the ignition, showed Monchique region above the 95<sup>th</sup> percentile of the ensemble, with ensemble maximum values, for both indices, being achieved on the period 6<sup>th</sup>-9<sup>th</sup> August 2018. FWI and FFMC, obtained from ERA5 data, registered the highest daily anomalies on the 3<sup>rd</sup> August 2018, recording values that are classified from very high to the extreme over Monchique region. The fire severity/intensity assessment based on the FRE product showed very high amounts of energy released during this fire event, daily maximum amounts of 10000 MW during 5<sup>th</sup> -8<sup>th</sup> August. Total FRP (MW) and FRE (GJ) values accumulated per pixel over the duration of the event achieved maximum values of 7x10<sup>4 </sup>and 6x10<sup>4</sup>, respectively, in certain pixels, illustrating the severity of this event and the hard challenge that was developed on suppression activities by Portuguese authorities.  Therefore, obtained results show that selected products were able to properly assess fire danger and fire severity for Monchique region over those days.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgments</strong>: This study was performed within the framework of the LSA-SAF, co-funded by EUMETSAT and was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017).</p>

scholarly journals Evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus event associated with an extreme wildfire in Tasmania, Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1497-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercy N. Ndalila ◽  
Grant J. Williamson ◽  
Paul Fox-Hughes ◽  
Jason Sharples ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Crown Defoliation ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract. Extreme fires have substantial adverse effects on society and natural ecosystems. Such events can be associated with the intense coupling of fire behaviour with the atmosphere, resulting in extreme fire characteristics such as pyrocumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb) development. Concern that anthropogenic climate change is increasing the occurrence of pyroCbs globally is driving more focused research into these meteorological phenomena. Using 6 min scans from a nearby weather radar, we describe the development of a pyroCb during the afternoon of 4 January 2013 above the Forcett–Dunalley fire in south-eastern Tasmania. We relate storm development to (1) near-surface weather using the McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI) and the C-Haines index, the latter of which is a measure of the vertical atmospheric stability and dryness, both derived from gridded weather reanalysis for Tasmania (BARRA-TA); and (2) a chronosequence of fire severity derived from remote sensing. We show that the pyroCb rapidly developed over a 24 min period on the afternoon of 4 January, with the cloud top reaching a height of 15 km. The pyroCb was associated with a highly unstable lower atmosphere (C-Haines value of 10–11) and severe–marginally extreme (FFDI 60–75) near-surface fire weather, and it formed over an area of forest that was severely burned (total crown defoliation). We use spatial patterns of elevated fire weather in Tasmania and fire weather during major runs of large wildfires in Tasmania for the period from 2007 to 2016 to geographically and historically contextualise this pyroCb event. Although the Forcett–Dunalley fire is the only known record of a pyroCb in Tasmania, our results show that eastern and south-eastern Tasmania are prone to the conjunction of high FFDI and C-Haines values that have been associated with pyroCb development. Our findings have implications for fire weather forecasting and wildfire management, and they highlight the vulnerability of south-east Tasmania to extreme fire events.

scholarly journals Evolution of an extreme Pyrocumulonimbus-driven wildfire event in Tasmania, Australia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercy N. Ndalila ◽  
Grant J. Williamson ◽  
Paul Fox-Hughes ◽  
Jason Sharples ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Crown Defoliation ◽  
Fire Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract. Extreme fires have substantial adverse effects on society and natural ecosystems. Such events can be associated with intense coupling of fire behaviour with the atmosphere, resulting in extreme fire characteristics such as pyrocumulonimbus cloud (pyroCb) development. Concern that anthropogenic climate change is increasing the occurrence of pyroCbs globally is driving more focused research into these meteorological phenomena. Using 6-minute scans from a nearby weather radar, we describe the development of a pyroCb during the afternoon of 4 January 2013 above the Forcett-Dunalley fire in south-eastern Tasmania. We relate storm development to: (1) near-surface weather using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), and the C-Haines Index, a measure of the vertical atmospheric stability and dryness both derived from gridded weather reanalysis for Tasmania (BARRA-TA), and (2) a chronosequence of fire severity derived from remote sensing. We show that the pyroCb rapidly developed over a 24-minute period in the afternoon of 4 January, with the cloud top reaching a height of 15 km. The pyroCb was associated with a highly unstable atmosphere (C-Haines 10-11) and Severe-marginally Extreme (FFDI 60-75) near-surface fire weather, and formed over an area of forest that was severely burned (total crown defoliation). We use spatial patterns of elevated fire weather in Tasmania, and fire weather during major runs of large wildfires in Tasmania for the period 2007–2016 to geographically and historically contextualise this pyroCb event. Although the Forcett-Dunalley fire is the only known record of a pyroCb in Tasmania, our results show that eastern and south-eastern Tasmania are prone to the conjunction of high FFDI and C-Haines values that have been associated with pyroCb development. Our findings have implications for fire weather forecasting and wildfire management, and highlight the vulnerability of southeast Tasmania to extreme fire events.

scholarly journals Short-Term Effects of Fire Severity on Vegetation Based on Sentinel-2 Satellite Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 432
Author(s):  
Aru Han ◽  
Song Qing ◽  
Yongbin Bao ◽  
Li Na ◽  
Yuhai Bao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Vegetation Dynamic ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Sentinel 2

An important component in improving the quality of forests is to study the interference intensity of forest fires, in order to describe the intensity of the forest fire and the vegetation recovery, and to improve the monitoring ability of the dynamic change of the forest. Using a forest fire event in Bilahe, Inner Monglia in 2017 as a case study, this study extracted the burned area based on the BAIS2 index of Sentinel-2 data for 2016–2018. The leaf area index (LAI) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC), which are more suitable for monitoring vegetation dynamic changes of a burned area, were calculated by comparing the biophysical and spectral indices. The results showed that patterns of change of LAI and FVC of various land cover types were similar post-fire. The LAI and FVC of forest and grassland were high during the pre-fire and post-fire years. During the fire year, from the fire month (May) through the next 4 months (September), the order of areas of different fire severity in terms of values of LAI and FVC was: low > moderate > high severity. During the post fire year, LAI and FVC increased rapidly in areas of different fire severity, and the ranking of areas of different fire severity in terms of values LAI and FVC was consistent with the trend observed during the pre-fire year. The results of this study can improve the understanding of the mechanisms involved in post-fire vegetation change. By using quantitative inversion, the health trajectory of the ecosystem can be rapidly determined, and therefore this method can play an irreplaceable role in the realization of sustainable development in the study area. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance to quantitatively retrieve vegetation variables by remote sensing.

Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Marshall ◽  
Paul A. Gregory ◽  
Catherine O. de Burgh-Day ◽  
Morwenna Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Fire Weather ◽  
Extreme Fire

Trend analysis of fire season length and extreme fire weather in North America between 1979 and 2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Extreme Fire

We have constructed a fire weather climatology over North America from 1979 to 2015 using the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. We tested for the presence of trends in potential fire season length, based on a meteorological definition, and extreme fire weather using the non-parametric Theil–Sen slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test. Applying field significance testing (i.e. joint significance of multiple tests) allowed the identification of the locations of significant trends, taking into account spatial correlations. Fire season length was found to be increasing over large areas of North America, especially in eastern Canada and the south-western US, which is consistent with a later fire season end and an earlier fire season start. Both positive and negative trends in potential fire spread days and the 99th percentile of FWI occurred in Canada and the contiguous United States, although the trends of largest magnitude and statistical significance were mostly positive. In contrast, the proportion of trends with significant decreases in these variables were much lower, indicating an overall increase in extreme fire weather. The smaller proportion of significant positive trends found over Canada reflects the truncation of the time series, necessary because assimilation of precipitation observations over Canada ceased in the reanalysis post-2002.

scholarly journals Increased trends in global extreme fire weather driven predominantly by atmospheric humidity and temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Dante Castellanos-Acuna ◽  
Sean Coogan ◽  
John Abatzoglou ◽  
Mike Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Global Analysis ◽  
Vapour Pressure Deficit ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Humidity ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Extreme Fire

Abstract Climate and weather greatly influence wildfire, and recent increases in wildfire activity have been linked to climate change. However, the atmospheric drivers of observed changes have not been articulated globally. We present a global analysis of trends in extreme fire weather from 1979–2020. Significant increases in extreme (95th percentile) annual values of the Fire Weather Index (FWI95), Initial Spread Index (ISI95), and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD95) occurred over 26.0%, 26.1%, and 46.1% of the global burnable landmass, respectively. Significant trends corresponded to a 35.8%, 36.0%, and 21.4% increase in mean global FWI95, ISI95, and VPD95, respectively. Relative humidity and temperature were identified as the drivers of significant trends in FWI95 and ISI95 in most regions, largely where temperature trends outpaced dew point trends. We identified relatively few regions in which wind speed or precipitation were drivers. These findings have wide-ranging implications for understanding fire risk in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1295 ◽  
Author(s):  
František Jurečka ◽  
Martin Možný ◽  
Jan Balek ◽  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
Miroslav Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The performance of fire indices based on weather variables was analyzed with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Three fire weather danger indices that are the basis of fire danger rating systems used in different parts of the world were assessed: the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Finnish Forest Fire Index (FFI). The performance of the three fire danger indices was investigated at different scales and compared with actual fire events. First, the fire danger indices were analyzed for different land use types during the period 1956–2015. In addition, in the analysis, the three fire danger indices were compared with wildfire events during the period 2001–2015. The fire danger indices were also analyzed for the specific locality of the Bzenec area where a large forest fire event occurred in May 2012. The study also focused on the relationship between fire danger indices and forest fires during 2018 across the area of the Jihomoravský region. Comparison of the index values with real fires showed that the index values corresponded well with the occurrence of forest fires. The analysis of the year 2018 showed that the highest index values were reached on days with the greater fire occurrence. On days with 5 or 7 reported fires per day, the fire danger indices reached values between 3 and 4.

Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Jain ◽  
Dante Castellanos-Acuna ◽  
Sean C. P. Coogan ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Fire Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Humidity ◽  
Extreme Fire
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