scholarly journals Benefits of diversity, communication costs, and public opinion dynamics

Complexity ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 54-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gani Aldashev ◽  
Timoteo Carletti
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Communication Costs

scholarly journals Modeling Confirmation Bias and Peer Pressure in Opinion Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longzhao Liu ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Xuyang Chen ◽  
Shaoting Tang ◽  
Zhiming Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Peer Pressure ◽  
Homogeneous Population ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Personal Opinion ◽  
The Impact

Confirmation bias and peer pressure are regarded as the main psychology origins of personal opinion adjustment. Each show substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution on large-scale social networks. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model of opinion dynamics which incorporates the conjugate effect of confirmation bias (characterized by the population identity scope and initiative adaptation speed) and peer pressure (described by a susceptibility threshold and passive adaptation speed). First, a counterintuitive non-monotonous phenomenon arises in the homogeneous population: the number of opinion clusters first increases and then decreases to one as the population identity scope becomes larger. We then consider heterogeneous populations where “impressionable” individuals with large susceptibility to peer pressure and “confident” individuals with small susceptibility coexist. We find that even a small fraction of impressionable individuals could help eliminate public polarization when population identity scope is relatively large. In particular, the impact of impressionable agents would be greater if these agents are hubs. More intriguingly, while impressionable individuals have randomly distributed initial opinions, most of them would finally evolve to moderates. We highlight the emergence of these “impressionable moderates” who are easily influenced, yet are important in public opinion competition, which may inspire efficient strategies in winning competitive campaigns.

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Foyle
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
New Media ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
New Research ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Dramatic changes in the way the public acquires information and formulates its attitudes have potentially altered the opinion and foreign policy relationship. While traditional approaches have treated public opinion on domestic and foreign matters as largely distinct, the culmination of a series of changes may eliminate the effective distinction between foreign and domestic policy, at least in terms of how the American political system operates. All the factors central to the opinion and foreign policy process, such as information acquisition, attitude formation, media effects, the effect of opinion on policy, and presidential leadership now appear to mirror the processes observed at the domestic level. This analysis reviews historical trends in the literature on public opinion and foreign policy that has focused on the rationality of the public’s opinions, the structure of its attitudes, and its influence on foreign policymaking. The traditional Almond-Lippmann consensus portrayed an emotional public with unstructured attitudes and little influence on foreign policy; however, revisionist views have described a reasonable public with largely structured views on foreign policy that can, at times, constrain and even drive those policies. More recently, the rise of “intermestic” issues, contain both domestic and international elements, such as globalization, inequality, terrorism, immigration, and climate change, have interacted to transform the domestic and international context. The bulk of this analysis highlights emerging new research directions that should be pursued in light of the changes. First, scholars should continue to evaluate the “who thinks what and why” questions with particular attention to differences between high- and low-information individuals, the effect of misinformation, and information sources. In doing so, research should build on research from non-American contexts that points to the important influences of societal and institutional factors. In addition to continued examination of traditional demographic factors such as partisanship and ideology, additional attention should turn to consider potential genetic and biological foundations of attitudes. Finally, researchers should continue to evaluate how the new media environment, including social media, affects how the public accesses information, how the media provides information, and how political elites attempt to shape both. Given these changes, scholars should consider whether it continues to make sense to treat public opinion dynamics regarding foreign policy as distinct from domestic policy and its implications.

An online multi-dimensional opinion dynamic model with misinformation diffusion in emergency events

2021 ◽  
pp. 016555152097743
Author(s):  
Mengmeng Liu ◽  
Lili Rong
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Online Social Networks ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Online Communication ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Emergency Events ◽  
Opinion Dynamic

Multiple opinions, including many that are negative, are produced in emergency events. These opinions are commonly formed asynchronously based on misinformation. However, most researches on opinion dynamics involving information neglect the asynchronous process of initial opinion formation due to information diffusion. Since online social networks like Sina Weibo act as major avenues for the expression, after analysing online behaviours, an opinion dynamic model is developed with consideration of misinformation diffusion of public opinion. In this model, schemes are developed for opinion interactions in multiple dimensions by introducing characteristics of online communication as another way of opinion interactions besides communication between neighbours. Subsequently, we investigate the impacts of network structure, diffusion rate, repost rate and other factors, which provide insights into understanding online opinion dynamics during emergency events. Furthermore, we conduct simulations to determine the intervention effects of different official responses. Results show that removing comments compulsively exhibits better performance in reducing negative opinion as well as increasing the density of Spreaders. Debunking misinformation by posting early results officially which indicates the probability of the existence of misinformation may lead public opinion in time if it takes a long time to finally confirm the misinformation.

scholarly journals Wait and see? Public opinion dynamics after terrorist attacks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Giani ◽  
Mariaelisa Epifanio ◽  
Ria Ivandic
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Social Attitudes ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Procedural Rights ◽  
London Bombings

We use the occurrence of the London bombings in July 7 2005 during the fieldwork period of the British Social Attitudes Survey to analyse the dynamics of public support for measures curbing core freedoms. We observe no changes of public stances in the first week after the attack. Approval of infringements on privacy and procedural rights surges in the following weeks before stabilizing at an increased level in the medium run. Our findings indicate that the public adopts a wait-and-see attitude when it comes to restrictive counter-terrorist measures. These results run against the hypothesis of an over-reactive citizenry driven by fear. People do not seem to spontaneously demand liberticidal policies, but appear to follow elite cues. Ancillary analyses point to the media as the main source of persuasion.

scholarly journals Impact of Heterogeneity on Opinion Dynamics: Heterogeneous Interaction Model

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Zhan Wu ◽  
Hongwei Wang ◽  
Wei Li
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Interaction Model ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Physical Distance ◽  
Regulatory Limits ◽  
Heterogeneous Interaction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opinion Evolution

Considering the impact that physical distance and other properties have on the change of opinions, this paper introduces an intension model of the Hegselmann-Krause (KH) model—heterogeneous interaction (HI) model. Based on the classical KH model, HI model designs new interaction rules and the interactive radius considering the impact of heterogeneous attributes, such as physical distance, individual conformity, and authority. The experiment results show that the opinion evolution of the HI model will be similar to the classic KH model when the interactive radius is above the particular threshold value (σ>600). Unlike the KH model, which leads to the polarization phenomenon; most agents reach a consensus in HI model when the confidence radius equals 0.2, and the interactive radius remains within regulatory limits (150<σ<520). The conclusions show that interactive radius affects public opinion evolution. HI model can explain more conscious opinion evolution in real life and has significance that effectively guides public opinion.

Citizen Support for Military Expenditure Post–9/11

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 688-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Simon ◽  
Nicholas P. Lovrich ◽  
Baodong Liu ◽  
Yehua Dennis Wei
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Asian Ethnicity ◽  
Citizen Support ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
The Military ◽  
Race Ideology

Citizens adjust their perceptions of military expenditure based largely on their worldview, as defined by their race, ethnicity, ideology, gender, socioeconomic status (SES), and education. Worldview might also reasonably be impacted by nativity. We explore the relationship between nativity and public opinion about military expenditure. Native-born survey respondents are less likely to believe that military expenditures are excessive than those born abroad. Race, ethnicity, ideology, nativity, and confidence in the military are the most significant variables used in explaining attitudes about military expenditure. Interaction analysis carried out for this article and reported here demonstrates that Hispanic and Asian ethnicity impacts on public perception of military expenditure are significantly greater when factoring in the nativity of survey respondents. With a growing portion of non-native-born citizens joining the electorate, public opinion analyses regarding military expenditure should take into account nativity as well as SES, gender, race, ideology, education, and ethnicity when seeking to explain public opinion dynamics.

scholarly journals Transient prophylaxis and multiple epidemic waves

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5616-5633
Author(s):  
Rebecca C. Tyson ◽  
◽  
Noah D. Marshall ◽  
Bert O. Baumgaertner ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Dynamical System ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Total Size ◽  
Epidemic Size

<abstract><p>Public opinion and opinion dynamics can have a strong effect on the transmission rate of an infectious disease for which there is no vaccine. The coupling of disease and opinion dynamics however, creates a dynamical system that is complex and poorly understood. We present a simple model in which susceptible groups adopt or give up prophylactic behaviour in accordance with the influence related to pro- and con-prophylactic communication. This influence varies with disease prevalence. We observe how the speed of the opinion dynamics affects the total size and peak size of the epidemic. We find that more reactive populations will experience a lower peak epidemic size, but possibly a larger final size and more epidemic waves, and that an increase in polarization results in a larger epidemic.</p></abstract>

Political Participation, Polarization, and Public Opinion

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H. Aldrich ◽  
Melanie Freeze
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Participation ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
National Election ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Public ◽  
Peripheral Position ◽  
Election Studies

This chapter considers how dynamics in public opinion combine with changes in participation and in the degree of elite (specifically, congressional) polarization in this regard. It begins by discussing the systematic changes in polarization and participation. Since the importance of a liberal-conservative dimension and left-right thinking in the public may be of less obvious importance for understanding American politics, given its peripheral position in the study of public opinion, this chapter develops a set of claims regarding its existence and relevance and then considers how it might fit into the polarization-participation-public opinion dynamics. To support its arguments, the chapter draws on data from American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys, surveys of donors to political campaigns, and surveys of delegates to national conventions.

Contrasting Public Opinion Dynamics and Emotional Response During Crisis

2016 ◽  
pp. 312-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svitlana Volkova ◽  
Ilia Chetviorkin ◽  
Dustin Arendt ◽  
Benjamin Van Durme
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Emotional Response ◽  
Opinion Dynamics
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