scholarly journals How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America?

Author(s):  
Peter Good ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Chris A. Boulton ◽  
Jason A. Lowe ◽  
Ingo Richter
2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Yseki ◽  
Bruno Turcq ◽  
Sandrine Caquineau ◽  
Renato Salvatteci ◽  
José Solis ◽  
...  

Abstract. Reconstructing precipitation and wind from the geological record could help to understand the potential changes in precipitation and wind dynamics in response to climate change in Peru. The last deglaciation offers natural experimental conditions to test precipitation and wind dynamics response to high latitude forcing. While considerable research has been done to reconstruct precipitation variability during the last deglaciation in the Atlantic sector of South America, the Pacific sector of South America has received little attention. This work aims to fill this gap by reconstructing types of terrigenous transport to the central-southern Peruvian margin (12° S and 14º S) during the last deglaciation (18–13 kyr BP). For this purpose, we used grain-size distribution in sediments of marine core M77/2-005-3 (Callao, 12º S) and G14 (Pisco, 14º S). We analyzed end-members (EM) to identify grain-size components and reconstruct potential sources and transport processes of terrigenous material across time. We identified four end-members for both Callao and Pisco sediments. In Callao, we propose that changes in EM4 (101 μm) and EM2 (58 μm) contribution mainly reflect hydrodynamic energy and diffuse sources, respectively, while EM3 (77 um) and EM1 (11 μm) variations reflect changes in aeolian and fluvial inputs, respectively. In Pisco, changes in the contribution of EM1 (10 μm) reflect changes in river inputs while EM2 (52 μm), EM3 (75 μm) and EM4 (94 μm) reflect an aeolian origin linked to surface winds. At millennial-scale, our record shows an increase of the fluvial inputs during the last part of Heinrich Stadial 1 (~ 16–14.7 kyr BP) at both locations. This increase was linked to higher precipitation in Andes related to a reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and meltwater discharge in North Atlantic. In contrast, during Bølling-Allerød (~ 14.7–13 kyr BP), there was an aeolian input increase, associated with stronger winds and lower precipitation that indicate an expansion of the South Pacific Subtropical High. These conditions would correspond to a northern displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone-South Subtropical High system associated with a stronger Walker circulation. Our results suggest that variations in river discharge and changes in surface wind intensity in the western margin of South America during the last deglaciation were sensitive to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variations and Walker circulation on millennial timescales. In the context of global warming, large-scale precipitation and fluvial discharge increases in the Andes related to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation decline and southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone should be considered.


2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1929-1946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy Grégorio ◽  
Thierry Penduff ◽  
Guillaume Sérazin ◽  
Jean-Marc Molines ◽  
Bernard Barnier ◽  
...  

AbstractThe low-frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated from 2, ¼°, and ° global ocean–sea ice simulations, with a specific focus on its internally generated (i.e., “intrinsic”) component. A 327-yr climatological ¼° simulation, driven by a repeated seasonal cycle (i.e., a forcing devoid of interannual time scales), is shown to spontaneously generate a significant fraction R of the interannual-to-decadal AMOC variance obtained in a 50-yr “fully forced” hindcast (with reanalyzed atmospheric forcing including interannual time scales). This intrinsic variance fraction R slightly depends on whether AMOCs are computed in geopotential or density coordinates, and on the period considered in the climatological simulation, but the following features are quite robust when mesoscale eddies are simulated (at both ¼° and ° resolutions); R barely exceeds 5%–10% in the subpolar gyre but reaches 30%–50% at 34°S, up to 20%–40% near 25°N, and 40%–60% near the Gulf Stream. About 25% of the meridional heat transport interannual variability is attributed to intrinsic processes at 34°S and near the Gulf Stream. Fourier and wavelet spectra, built from the 327-yr ¼° climatological simulation, further indicate that spectral peaks of intrinsic AMOC variability (i) are found at specific frequencies ranging from interannual to multidecadal, (ii) often extend over the whole meridional scale of gyres, (iii) stochastically change throughout these 327 yr, and (iv) sometimes match the spectral peaks found in the fully forced hindcast in the North Atlantic. Intrinsic AMOC variability is also detected at multidecadal time scales, with a marked meridional coherence between 35°S and 25°N (15–30 yr periods) and throughout the whole basin (50–90-yr periods).


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