The relationship between the illusion of control and the desirability bias

1995 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
David V. Budescu ◽  
Meira Bruderman
Keyword(s):  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
The Relationship

Entrepreneurial Passion, Cognitive Bias, and Technology Commercialization of New Ventures

2020 ◽  
pp. 148-163
Author(s):  
Biaoan Shan ◽  
Shuanghui Yan ◽  
Xifeng Lu ◽  
Datian Bi
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Theory ◽  
New Ventures ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Technology Commercialization ◽  
Risk Propensity ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Entrepreneurial Passion ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter utilizes cognitive theory to explain how entrepreneurial passion influences the speed of new venture's technology commercialization and explore the roles of cognitive bias (illusion of control and risk propensity) played in this process. The results show that both entrepreneurial passion and cognitive bias positively impact on the speed of technology commercialization. The authors also find that illusion of control and risk propensity play a partial mediating role in the relationship between entrepreneurial passion and the speed of technology commercialization. This conclusion can make up for the gap of existing theoretical research.

Cognitive Biases, Risk Perception, and Individual's Decision to Start a New Venture

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 14-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salma Zaiane ◽  
Fatma Ben Moussa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
New Venture ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship of overconfidence and illusion of control towards the start of new venture, taking in consideration the mediating role of risk perception in the context of Tunisia. This article examines students' responses to surveys based on a teaching case titled “Optical Distortion, Inc.” The authors tested hypotheses by correlation and regression analysis. The results show that the perception towards risk associated with new venture plays an important role in decision-making. Moreover, they find that overconfidence and illusion of control reduce risk perception associated to the decision to start a venture. While overconfidence directly affects the decision to start a venture and indirectly through its effect on reducing the risk perception, illusion of control has neither a direct nor an indirect impact on that. These results partially confirm those of Simon show that the mediation exists but partially.

scholarly journals Impact of positive illusions and experience on decision to invest in own new venture

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-285
Author(s):  
Andrea Zelienková ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Positive Illusions ◽  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Positive Events ◽  
Opportunity Evaluation ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Process Macro

Objectives. The objective of this study is threefold: 1) to examine the effect of positive illusions on risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision; 2) to examine the mediating role of risk attitudes on the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision; 3) to examine the moderating effect of experience on the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. Sample and setting. Research sample comprised 132 entrepreneurs aged between 19 and 63 (M = 40.6; SD = 10.8) owning small, medium, and large-sized businesses. Hypotheses. 1) Individuals exhibiting higher positive illusions (overconfidence, unrealistic optimism, illusion of control) would take higher risk manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. 2) Risk attitudes will mediate the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. 3) Experience will moderate the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. Statistical analysis and results. 1) Using simple linear regression it was found that only unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and illusion of control predicted risk taking manifested in investment decision. None of positive illusions explained opportunity evaluation. 2) Using PROCESS macro for mediation analysis it was found that domain-specific risk perception, rather than general risk tolerance, is statistically significant mediator of the relationship between unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and investment decision. 3) Moderation analysis via PROCESS macro showed that only entrepreneurial experience moderates the relationship between unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and investment decision using own savings. The limitations concerning gender and domain specificity of methods are discussed in the study.

The Politics of Risk: Trials and Tribulations of the Taurus Project

1996 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 347-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helga Drummond
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Complex Projects ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Relationship

The term ‘risk management’ implies that risk is something which can be quantified, predicted and controlled. This paper seeks to demonstrate the limits of this assumption where complex projects are involved. The argument is based upon a case study of a failed £80 million IT venture known as Taurus. Analysis focuses upon the relationship between politics and the assumption of risk. Acceptance of risk, it is argued, is ultimately determined by the balance of power between decision makers. Moreover, risk analysis and other techniques of management may actually compound the difficulties by fostering an illusion of control and escalation. The implications for project management are discussed.

scholarly journals The Mediating Role of Risk Perception among Cognitive Biases towards Decision to Start a New Venture

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 88-95
Author(s):  
Maheen Butt ◽  
Nadia Jamil ◽  
Rabia Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
New Venture ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
The Relationship

The Objective of the study is to investigate the relationship of overconfidence bias and illusion of control bias towards the start of new venture, with the mediating role of risk perception in context of Pakistan. To understand the relationship, this study developed and tested hypothesis by correlation and regression analysis. This study’s sample consisted of 170 students pursuing a Masters of Business Administration. The students’ responses to a survey based on a case study regarding a decision to start a venture were examined. This study found illusion of control and risk perceptions have significant effect on decision to start new venture. Conversely, overconfidence bias has insignificant relationship with decision to start new venture. The positive and negative impact of biases and perceiving low levels of risk suggest the importance of exploring the area of venture formation. As this study has incorporated two biases but many other biases should also be considered that effect human decision making process like self-efficacy, availability heuristics, law of small numbers and escalation of commitment.

scholarly journals Testing for Depressive Realism in a Clinically Depressed Sample

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shruti Venkatesh ◽  
Michelle L. Moulds ◽  
Christopher J. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Normative Judgment ◽  
Distraction Condition ◽  
Depressive Realism ◽  
External Objects ◽  
Clinically Depressed ◽  
The Relationship

The depressive-realism effect refers to a phenomenon in which depressed individuals are more realistic at assessing the relationship between two events than non-depressed individuals. Recent evidence suggests that the depressive realism hypothesis is weaker than first thought. Thus, we sought evidence for depressive-realism under conditions that we hypothesised would maximise the effect. We tested a clinically depressed sample of participants who were administered a rumination induction. Twenty-eight clinically depressed and 39 non-depressed participants were randomly allocated to either a rumination condition (focused on the causes, consequences, and meaning of their mood) or a distraction condition (focused on external objects/events such as a classroom). Participants then completed a contingency task in which there was no relationship between their responses and an outcome, and they were asked to make a judgment of how much control they had over an outcome. Both groups and conditions did not differ in their judgments of control; participants in all conditions showed a non-normative judgment of control. The depressive-realism effect was not observed in this study, even when depressed participants were encouraged to ruminate. Rather, the present study clearly demonstrates the robustness of the illusion of control.

scholarly journals Cognitive Biases, Risk Perception, and Risky Driving Behaviour

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 77
Author(s):  
Cornelia Măirean ◽  
Grigore M. Havârneanu ◽  
Danijela Barić ◽  
Corneliu Havârneanu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Risky Behaviour ◽  
Risky Driving ◽  
Optimism Bias ◽  
Driving Behaviour ◽  
The Relationship

This study evaluated the relationship between drivers’ cognitive biases (i.e., optimism bias, illusion of control) and risky driving behaviour. It also investigated the mediational role of risk perception in the relationship between cognitive biases and self-reported risky driving. The sample included 366 drivers (Mage = 39.13, SD = 13.63 years) who completed scales measuring optimism bias, illusion of control, risk perception, and risky driving behaviour, as well as demographic information. The results showed that risky driving behaviour was negatively predicted by optimism bias and positively predicted by the illusion of control. Further, risk perception negatively correlated with risky behaviour and also mediated the relation between both optimism bias and illusion of control with risky driving. The practical implications of these results for traffic safety and future research are discussed.

scholarly journals Impact of positive illusions and experience on decision to invest in own new venture

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-285
Author(s):  
Andrea Zelienková ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Positive Illusions ◽  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Positive Events ◽  
Opportunity Evaluation ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Process Macro

Objectives. The objective of this study is threefold: 1) to examine the effect of positive illusions on risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision; 2) to examine the mediating role of risk attitudes on the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision; 3) to examine the moderating effect of experience on the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. Sample and setting. Research sample comprised 132 entrepreneurs aged between 19 and 63 (M = 40.6; SD = 10.8) owning small, medium, and large-sized businesses. Hypotheses. 1) Individuals exhibiting higher positive illusions (overconfidence, unrealistic optimism, illusion of control) would take higher risk manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. 2) Risk attitudes will mediate the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. 3) Experience will moderate the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. Statistical analysis and results. 1) Using simple linear regression it was found that only unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and illusion of control predicted risk taking manifested in investment decision. None of positive illusions explained opportunity evaluation. 2) Using PROCESS macro for mediation analysis it was found that domain-specific risk perception, rather than general risk tolerance, is statistically significant mediator of the relationship between unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and investment decision. 3) Moderation analysis via PROCESS macro showed that only entrepreneurial experience moderates the relationship between unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and investment decision using own savings. The limitations concerning gender and domain specificity of methods are discussed in the study.

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