scholarly journals Characteristics of spring consecutive dry days with different durations across China based on the objective zoning approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zixuan Zeng ◽  
Jianqi Sun
Keyword(s):  
Consecutive Dry Days

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on the Pleistocene rock art of Sulawesi

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Huntley ◽  
M. Aubert ◽  
A. A. Oktaviana ◽  
R. Lebe ◽  
B. Hakim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rock Art ◽  
Rice Fields ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
Limestone Cave ◽  
Salt Crystallisation ◽  
Standing Water ◽  
Aquaculture Ponds ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

AbstractThe equatorial tropics house some of the earliest rock art yet known, and it is weathering at an alarming rate. Here we present evidence for haloclasty (salt crystallisation) from Pleistocene-aged rock art panels at 11 sites in the Maros-Pangkep limestone karsts of southern Sulawesi. We show how quickly rock art panels have degraded in recent decades, contending that climate-catalysed salt efflorescence is responsible for increasing exfoliation of the limestone cave surfaces that house the ~ 45 to 20-thousand-year-old paintings. These artworks are located in the world’s most atmospherically dynamic region, the Australasian monsoon domain. The rising frequency and severity of El Niño-induced droughts from anthropogenic climate change (that is, higher ambient temperatures and more consecutive dry days), combined with seasonal moisture injected via monsoonal rains retained as standing water in the rice fields and aquaculture ponds of the region, increasingly provide ideal conditions for evaporation and haloclasty, accelerating rock art deterioration.

scholarly journals Effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on fire activity in the North American boreal forest: implications for fire weather forecasting

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 6873-6888 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Peterson ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
C. Ichoku ◽  
L. A. Remer
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
North American ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Lightning Strikes ◽  
The North ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Western Boreal Forest ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

Abstract. The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000–2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-km gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above ~5700 m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts.

scholarly journals Identifikasi perubahan suhu udara dan curah hujan di Bogor

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 616-626
Author(s):  
Rahmat Hidayat ◽  
Alfi Wardah Farihah
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
West Java ◽  
Climate Parameters ◽  
Increased Temperature ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

Climate datasets were analyzed to identify the changing climatic parameters and extreme events in Bogor, West Java. This study aims to analyze the characteristic of observational datasets in Baranangsiang and Dramaga, namely, air temperature and rainfall, and to indentify the changing structure of those climate parameters. The analysis has been conducted using RClimdex to understand the long-term changing air temperature and rainfall based on 10 indices for air temperature and 8 indices for rainfall. Results show that the rainfall in Baranangsiang has the daily mean of 10 mm/day and in Dramaga of 8 mm/day. The daily mean of air temperature in Baranangsiang and Dramaga is 27˚C and 25.5˚C, respectively. Generally, the declined slopes of the temperature indices in Barangsiang, namely, TN90p, TNx, TX10p, TNn, TXn, TR20, and SU25, indicate cooler temperature. In Dramaga, the increased temperature indices, namely, TN90p, TX90p, TXx, SU25, and TXn, indicate the warmer temperature. The rainfall indices generally decline, except for CDD, which indicate the increased consecutive dry days in Baranangsiang.   

scholarly journals Application of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction to Support Agricultural Sector in South Sulawesi Rice Production Centers

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012081
Author(s):  
A M Setiawan ◽  
Y Koesmaryono ◽  
A Faqih ◽  
D Gunawan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

Abstract Sufficient water availability during the vegetative, reproductive, and early ripening phases of the rice plants is essential. Information on drought, such as Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) predictions in this period, became very crucial and had an important role in maintaining rice production stability. The aim of this study is to investigate the performance of CDD Multi-Model Ensemble prediction, which is applied to South Sulawesi rice production centers. CDD observation was calculated using high resolution gridded precipitation blending data, obtained from BMKG precipitation network stations and the daily-improved Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) version 2.0. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly precipitation hindcast data during 1982 – 2010 periods from each nine individual global climate models were used to develop seasonal CDD predictions. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Standard Verification for Long Range Forecast (SVS-LRF) method applied to describe this CDD prediction performance on four different seasons. Investigation of model performance during strong El Niño event in 1997 also conducted in order to get general skill overview regarding extreme climate event. Best performance of CDD prediction generally occurred during JJA and DJF period. MME CDD prediction shows better performance compared to individual model performance for almost all season. Spatial coherence between prediction and observation over rice production centers during 1997 El Niño confirms the skill of CDD predictions. The application of this prediction on agricultural sector will be very useful in order to support rice production sustainability and food security. Further analysis result can be found on full paper.

scholarly journals Characteristics of consecutive dry days variations in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 130 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 701-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yawen Duan ◽  
Zhuguo Ma ◽  
Qing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Consecutive Dry Days

scholarly journals Monthly Variations of the Winter Precipitation over the Philippines During the Mature Phase of Eastern Pacific El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxu Liao ◽  
Yi Fan ◽  
Shoupeng Zhu ◽  
Yanyan Huang ◽  
Yang Lv
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
Monthly Variations ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

The influence of ENSO events on winter precipitation anomalies in the Philippines has been well known since decades, but whether this effect is different between months needs further exploration. In this study, the monthly variations of precipitation over the Philippines in winter during the mature phases of ENSO events are investigated with datasets of reanalysis and observations from 1979 to 2019. Results indicate that only the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño shows different influences on the Philippines winter precipitation among different months. In December during mature EP El Niño events, precipitation deficiency is not significant over the whole Philippines, whereas in January and February, precipitation decreases significantly over the southern Philippines as well as the areas to the southeast of the Philippines. Besides, the correlation between consecutive dry days over the southeast Philippines and ENSO is significantly positive in January and February but not in December. The eastward propagation of EP El Niño–related anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) from December to February is proved responsible for the changed relationship between EP El Niño and precipitation. In December, the center of the WNPAC is located to the southeast of the Indo-China Peninsula, inducing weak lower-level wind anomalies and, consequently, weak vertical movement and water vapor transport anomalies over the Philippines, which exerts limited influence on the local precipitation. In January and February, by contrast, the center of WNPAC is located to the southeast of the Philippines, and therefore the southern Philippines is occupied by anticyclonic moisture transports and downward vertical motions, favoring less precipitations and larger than normal consecutive dry days over there.

Detecting climate change in Ukraine: trends, prediction and extreme events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Bohushenko ◽  
Sergiy Stepanenko ◽  
Inna Khomenko
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Minimum Value ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

<p>In this study the trends and variations in 25 extreme temperature and precipitation indices<br>defined by ETCCDI, are examined using trend method, probability distribution analysis and<br>spatial statistics for periods of 71 to 137 years for 16 stations evenly distributed in Ukraine. Data<br>on the indices were obtained from www.ecad.eu.<br>Since 1981, temperature has increased by about 1ºC in all stations in question relative to the<br>period of 1945-1980. Analysis of the temperature indices indicates that during the 20th and the<br>beginning of the 21th century there is significant warming which is particularly pronounced in<br>annual mean and annual maximum temperatures. Occurrence of more summer days, warm days<br>and tropical nights and warm spell duration reached the record highest level, and conversely<br>occurrence of frost and ice days, cold days and cold spell duration fall to a record low for the last<br>three decades in the most of study territory.<br>Since 1981, precipitation amount has grown by 30-50 mm relative to the period of 1945-1980 for<br>the most of Ukrainian territory, except Uzhhorod and Uman where precipitation amount has<br>remained the same. For Ukraine average, an increase in maximum daily and maximum 5 days<br>precipitation amount, the maximum number of consecutive wet days, heavy and very heavy<br>precipitation days, and a decrease in the maximum number of consecutive dry days are observed<br>for the last three decades.<br>The analysis of the spatial distribution of trend of precipitation and temperature indices showed<br>that there are large differences between regions of Ukraine, and coherence of spatial distribution<br>of trends of various indices is low.<br>Spectral analysis and harmonic regression techniques were used to derive simulated and<br>predicted (2019-2050) values of annual precipitation and annual mean temperature and four<br>indices such as maximum value of daily maximum temperature, minimum value of daily<br>minimum temperature, the highest 1-day precipitation amount and maximum number of<br>consecutive dry days for some stations such as Kerch (the Crimean Peninsula), Kyiv (situated in<br>north-central Ukraine along the Dnieper River), Lubny (Dnieper Lowland), Lviv and Shepetivka<br>(Podillia Upland), Uzhhorod (Transcarpathia), Uman (Dnieper Upland).<br>Annual mean temperature and maximum value of daily maximum temperature were predicted to<br>increase by 0.33°C per decade in the period of 2019-2050 with respect to 1981-2018, while<br>minimum value of daily minimum temperature was predicted to grow slightly faster (by 0.43-<br>0.63ºC per decade).<br>Precipitation was predicted to increase for the stations in question by 20-66 mm up to 2050<br>relative to 1981-2018 and conversely maximum number of consecutive dry days will slightly<br>decline except Lubny where increase in an aridity index was predicted. In the next three decades<br>changes in maximum daily precipitation will be various: in Shepetivka and Kyiv such<br>precipitation will be decreased and in other stations increasement in such precipitation will be up<br>to 6 mm till 2050 with respect to 1981-2018.</p>

scholarly journals Attribution of the Record-Breaking Consecutive Dry Days in Winter 2017/18 in Beijing

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. S95-S102
Author(s):  
Jizeng Du ◽  
Kaicun Wang ◽  
Baoshan Cui ◽  
Shaojing Jiang ◽  
Guocan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Consecutive Dry Days
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