scholarly journals Possibly extreme, probably not: Is possibility theory the route for risk‐averse decision‐making?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noémie Le Carrer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Risk Averse

The Moderating Role of Personal Relevance on Differential Priming of Anxiety and Sadness on Perceived Travel Risk: A Replication

2009 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 500-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Bin Chiou ◽  
Ming-Hsu Chang ◽  
Chien-Lung Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Personal Relevance ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Mood Repair ◽  
Neutral Mood ◽  
Motivational Influences ◽  
Relevance Condition ◽  
Moderating Role

Raghunathan and Pham conducted a pioneer study in 1999 on the motivational influences of anxiety and sadness on decision making and indicated that anxiety would motivate individuals to be risk averse, whereas sadness would motivate individuals to be risk taking. A replication study was employed in the domain of perceived travel risk. Compared to participants in a neutral mood, anxious participants showed higher perceived travel risk than sad participants. Moreover, the differential effect of anxiety and sadness on perceived travel risk was only pronounced under the high personal relevance condition, in which participants made personal decisions and expected that they would be affected by the outcomes. In general, the results extend the notion proposed by Raghunathan and Pham suggesting that travelers' implicit goals primed by anxiety or sadness used for mood-repair purposes appear to be moderated by personal relevance.

scholarly journals Support of decision-making under risk by a risk-averse decision-maker

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Łodziński
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Discrete Problem ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Control Parameters ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
State Of The Environment

The paper presents the decision support under risk by the risk averse decision maker. Decision making under risk occurs when the result of the decision is not unequivocal and depends on the state of the environment. The decision making process is modeled with the use of multi-criteria optimization. The decision is made by solving the problem with the control parameters that determine the decision maker's aspirations and the evaluation of the solutions received. The decision maker asks the parameter for which the solution is determined. Then, evaluate the solution received accepting or rejecting it. In the second case, the decision maker gives a new parameter value and the problem is solved again for the new parameter. The work includes an simple discrete problem of decision support under risk

Information Fake in Supply Chains

2011 ◽  
Vol 267 ◽  
pp. 958-962
Author(s):  
Jiang Hong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Information Management ◽  
Stable Distribution ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Stochastically Stable

In this paper, we set risk attitude into decision making research for the supply chain manage. We focus on the information management. We discuss the stable states and the stochastically stable distribution for the fake game in the supply chain. We find there always exist information fake behaviors of low-yield suppliers. And, the less risk averse suppliers are, the more information fake they use.

scholarly journals Optimal Decisions for Two Risk-Averse Competitive Manufacturers under the Cap-and-Trade Policy and Uncertain Demand

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongxia Sun ◽  
Jie Yang ◽  
Yang Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Cap And Trade ◽  
Carbon Emission Reduction ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
The Government

With the increasingly serious problem of environmental pollution, reducing carbon emissions has become an urgent task for all countries. The cap-and-trade (C&T) policy has gained international recognition and has been adopted by several countries. In this paper, considering the uncertainty of market demand, we discuss the carbon emission reduction and price policies of two risk-averse competitive manufacturers under the C&T policy. The two manufacturers have two competitive behaviors: simultaneous decision making and sequential decision making. Two models were constructed for these behaviors. The optimal decisions, carbon emission reduction rate, and price were obtained from these two models. Furthermore, in this paper the effects of some key parameters on the optimal decision are discussed, and some managerial insights are obtained. The results show that the lower the manufacturers’ risk aversion level is, the higher their carbon emission reduction rate and utilities. As the carbon quota increases, the manufacturers’ optimal carbon reduction rate and utilities increase. Considering consumers’ environmental awareness, it is more beneficial for the government to reduce the carbon quota and motivate manufacturers’ internal enthusiasm for emission reduction. The government can, through macro control of the market, make carbon trading prices increase appropriately and encourage manufacturers to reduce carbon emissions.

scholarly journals The Role of Photograph Aesthetics on Online Review Sites: Effects of Management- versus Traveler-Generated Photos on Tourists’ Decision Making

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Marder ◽  
Antonia Erz ◽  
Rob Angell ◽  
Kirk Plangger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Review ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Controlled Experiments ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Visual Appeal ◽  
Booking Intentions

Tourists searching for information about destinations on online review sites are concurrently exposed to two different photograph aesthetics, professional (produced by destination managers) and amateur (generated by travelers). While the former is glossy and sharp, the latter is often grainy and overexposed. Although aesthetics are important factors in tourist decision making, the effects of the exposure to both types of photograph aesthetics remain largely unexamined. This research investigates how both types of aesthetics, either singularly or in combination, affect a destination’s visual appeal and tourists’ booking intentions through four controlled experiments (N = 1,282). Our results show that despite the “messy” beauty in amateur aesthetics, photos with professional aesthetics make a depicted destination appear more visually appealing, ultimately driving booking intentions. However, the negative effects of amateur aesthetics are mitigated when (1) viewed by risk-averse tourists, (2) presented alongside positive reviews, and (3) accompanied by a greater number of professional photos.

Risk Preferences and Incentives for Evidence Acquisition and Disclosure

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 314-342
Author(s):  
Erin Giffin ◽  
Erik Lillethun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Optimal Design ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Good Decision ◽  
Legal Rules

Abstract Civil disputes feature parties with biased incentives acquiring evidence with costly effort. Evidence may then be revealed at trial or concealed to persuade a judge or jury. Using a persuasion game, we examine how a litigant’s risk preferences influence evidence acquisition incentives. We find that high risk aversion depresses equilibrium evidence acquisition. We then study the problem of designing legal rules to balance good decision making against the costs of acquisition. We characterize the optimal design, which differs from equilibrium decision rules. Notably, for very risk-averse litigants, the design is “over-incentivized” with stronger rewards and punishments than in equilibrium. We find similar results for various common legal rules, including admissibility of evidence and maximum awards. These results have implications for how rules could differentiate between high risk aversion types (e.g., individuals) and low risk aversion types (e.g., corporations) to improve evidence acquisition efficiency.

Technical Note—Time Inconsistency of Optimal Policies of Distributionally Robust Inventory Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (5) ◽  
pp. 1576-1584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Shapiro ◽  
Linwei Xin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Large Class ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Base Stock ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Inventory Models ◽  
Optimal Policies ◽  
Distributionally Robust

The authors extend previous studies of time inconsistency to risk averse (distributionally robust) inventory models and show that time inconsistency is not unique to robust multistage decision making, but may happen for a large class of risk averse/distributionally robust settings. In particular, they demonstrate that if the respective risk measures are not strictly monotone, then there may exist infinitely many optimal policies which are not base-stock and not time consistent. This is in a sharp contrast with the risk neutral formulation of the inventory model where all optimal policies are base-stock and time consistent.

Robust Optimization in Possibility Theory

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Hose ◽  
Markus Mäck ◽  
Michael Hanss
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Linear Quadratic Regulator ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Multicriteria Decision

Abstract In this contribution, the optimization of systems under uncertainty is considered. The possibilistic evaluation of the fuzzy-valued constraints and the adoption of a multicriteria decision making technique for the fuzzy-valued objective function enable a meaningful solution to general fuzzy-valued optimization problems. The presented approach is universally applicable, which is demonstrated by reformulating and solving the linear quadratic regulator problem for fuzzy-valued system matrices and initial conditions.

Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey W. Taliaferro
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Endowment Effect ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Point Selection

Prospect theory is one of the most influential behavioral theories in the international relations (IR) field, particularly among scholars of security studies, political psychology, and foreign policy analysis. Developed by Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory provides key insights into decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. For example, most individuals are risk averse to secure gains, but risk acceptant to avoid losses (loss aversion). In addition, most people value items they already posses more than they value items they want to acquire (endowment effect), and tend to be risk averse if they perceive themselves to be facing gains relative to their reference point (risk propensity). Prospect theory has generated an enormous volume of scholarship in IR, which can be divided into two “generations”. The first generation (1990–1999) sought to establish prospect theory’s plausibility in the “real world” by testing hypotheses derived from it against subjective expected-utility theory or rational choice models of foreign policy decision making. The second generation (2000–present) began to incorporate concepts associated with prospect theory and related experimental literature on group risk taking into existing mid-level theories of IR and foreign policy behavior. Two substantive areas covered by scholars during this period are coercive diplomacy and great power intervention in the periphery as they relate to loss aversion. Both generations of prospect theory literature suffer from conceptual and methodological difficulties, mainly around the issues of reference point selection, framing, and preference reversal outside laboratory settings.

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