scholarly journals Escaping a Rising Tide: Sea Level Rise and Migration in Kiribati

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Wyett
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
And Migration

scholarly journals Simulating the Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Resilience and Migration of Tidal Wetlands along the Hudson River

PLoS ONE ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e0152437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nava M. Tabak ◽  
Magdeline Laba ◽  
Sacha Spector
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Hudson River ◽  
Tidal Wetlands ◽  
And Migration

Exploring the effects of adaptation policies on sea-level rise-induced migration at continental scale

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lena Reimann ◽  
Bryan Jones ◽  
Claudia Wolff ◽  
Athanasios Vafeidis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Coastal Adaptation ◽  
Adaptation Policies ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Policy Scenarios

<p>Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) in the course of the 21<sup>st</sup> century will lead to population displacement and migration, the intensity and patterns of which will largely depend on the type and efficiency of adaptation strategies pursued. Thus far, the potential feedbacks between adaptation and SLR-induced migration have not been considered in continental-scale assessments. This study explores the effect of three coastal adaptation policy scenarios – 1) ‘build with nature’, 2) ‘hold the line’, 3) ‘save yourself’ – on migration due to SLR, using a gravity-based population downscaling model calibrated to the Mediterranean region. The policy scenarios are consistent with the socioeconomic developments described under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Combining these with a range of SLR scenarios, we produce spatial population projections from 2020 to 2100 that allow for estimating SLR-induced migration with and without adaptation. Preliminary results show that, without adaptation, SLR may lead to migration of 10 million (SSP1-RCP2.6) to 16 million (SSP3-RCP4.5) people currently living in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean until 2100. With adaptation, the number of migrants until 2100 could be reduced by 2.1 million under the ‘build with nature’ scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and by up to 6 million under the ‘hold the line’ scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). These results suggest that adaptation can be effective in reducing the number of migrants due to SLR, in particular when engineered solutions such as dikes are pursued. However, while the number of SLR-related migrants can be reduced by 50% under the ‘hold the line’ scenario, impacts would be high in case of protection failure during extreme sea level conditions. Allowing for exploring the effects of different adaptation policies on SLR-induced migration, we anticipate that our findings can provide a suitable basis for decision-making, for example in adaptation planning or regional development planning.</p>

Impacts of mean sea-level rise and marine extremes on islands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Angel Amores
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Impacts ◽  
Extreme Hazards ◽  
And Migration

<p>For how long low-elevation coastal areas will be habitable under the effects of mean sea-level rise and marine extreme hazards? Mean sea-level rise, despite having a global origin, has severe local coastal impacts, as it raises the baseline level on top of which extreme storm surges and wind-waves reach the coastlines and, consequently, increases coastal exposure. In this presentation we will show coastal modelling exercises, fed with regionalised climate information of mean sea level and marine extremes, and applied in different environments that include sandy beaches and atoll islands. The outputs are aimed at anticipating the potential impacts of the dominant drivers in terms of land loss, coastal flooding and erosion. Our examples will be focusing on islands, for which the effects of increased coastal exposure are relatively larger, where local economy is often linked to coastal activities and retreat and migration are hampered by the limited land availability.</p>

scholarly journals Accretion, retreat and transgression of coastal wetlands experiencing sea-level rise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Breda ◽  
Patricia M. Saco ◽  
Steven G. Sandi ◽  
Neil Saintilan ◽  
Gerardo Riccardi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Wetlands ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Wetland Evolution ◽  
Inner Channel

Abstract. The vulnerability of coastal wetlands to future sea-level rise (SLR) has been extensively studied in recent years, and models of coastal wetland evolution have been developed to assess and quantify the expected impacts. Coastal wetlands respond to SLR by vertical accretion and landward migration. Wetlands accrete due to their capacity to trap sediments and to incorporate dead leaves, branches stems and roots into the soil, and they migrate driven by the preferred inundation conditions in terms of salinity and oxygen availability. Accretion and migration strongly interact and they both depend on water flow and sediment distribution within the wetland, so wetlands under the same external flow and sediment forcing but with different configurations will respond differently to SLR. Analyses of wetland response to SLR that do not incorporate realistic consideration of flow and sediment distribution, like the bathtub approach, are likely to result in poor estimates of wetland resilience. Here, we investigate how accretion and migration processes affect wetland response to SLR using a computational framework that includes all relevant hydrodynamic and sediment transport mechanisms that affect vegetation and landscape dynamics, and it is efficient enough computationally to allow the simulation of long time periods. Our framework incorporates two vegetation species, mangrove and saltmarsh, and accounts for the effects of natural and manmade features like inner channels, embankments and flow constrictions due to culverts. We apply our model to simplified domains that represent four different settings found in coastal wetlands, including a case of a tidal flat free from obstructions or drainage features and three other cases incorporating an inner channel, an embankment with a culvert, and a combination of inner channel, embankment and culvert. We use conditions typical of SE Australia in terms of vegetation, tidal range and sediment load, but we also analyse situations with three times the sediment load to assess the potential of biophysical feedbacks to produce increased accretion rates. We find that all wetland settings are unable to cope with SLR and disappear by the end of the century, even for the case of increased sediment load. Wetlands with good drainage that improves tidal flushing are more resilient than wetlands with obstacles that result in tidal attenuation, and can delay wetland submergence by 20 years. Results from a bathtub model reveals systematic overprediction of wetland resilience to SLR: by the end of the century, half of the wetland survives with a typical sediment load, while the entire wetland survives with increased sediment load.

scholarly journals Political Attention in a Creeping Crisis: The Case of Climate Change and Migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-147
Author(s):  
Elin Jakobsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Natural Catastrophes ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Human Displacement

AbstractThis chapter discusses the creeping crisis of rising human displacement induced by environmental degradation and natural catastrophes. Sea-level rise, droughts, and the increased occurrence of hurricanes and floods already have, and increasingly will have, drastic effects on migration patterns. Climate-induced displacement already outnumbers displacement from war or violence. Nation states and the international community have consistently failed to properly address this phenomenon. Only recently has political attention begun to increase. This chapter argues that our understanding of climate-induced migration can be improved with the help of the creeping crisis concept. In addition, climate-induced migration may provide insights to the underlying mechanisms of creeping crises. More to the point, this chapter explores the rise and fall of political attention in this case, offers insights on what lies behind this and reflects upon the broader implications for the literature on creeping crises.

scholarly journals Accretion, retreat and transgression of coastal wetlands experiencing sea-level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 769-786
Author(s):  
Angelo Breda ◽  
Patricia M. Saco ◽  
Steven G. Sandi ◽  
Neil Saintilan ◽  
Gerardo Riccardi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Wetlands ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Inner Channel

Abstract. The vulnerability of coastal wetlands to future sea-level rise (SLR) has been extensively studied in recent years, and models of coastal wetland evolution have been developed to assess and quantify the expected impacts. Coastal wetlands respond to SLR by vertical accretion and landward migration. Wetlands accrete due to their capacity to trap sediments and to incorporate dead leaves, branches, stems and roots into the soil, and they migrate driven by the preferred inundation conditions in terms of salinity and oxygen availability. Accretion and migration strongly interact, and they both depend on water flow and sediment distribution within the wetland, so wetlands under the same external flow and sediment forcing but with different configurations will respond differently to SLR. Analyses of wetland response to SLR that do not incorporate realistic consideration of flow and sediment distribution, like the bathtub approach, are likely to result in poor estimates of wetland resilience. Here, we investigate how accretion and migration processes affect wetland response to SLR using a computational framework that includes all relevant hydrodynamic and sediment transport mechanisms that affect vegetation and landscape dynamics, and it is efficient enough computationally to allow the simulation of long time periods. Our framework incorporates two vegetation species, mangrove and saltmarsh, and accounts for the effects of natural and manmade features like inner channels, embankments and flow constrictions due to culverts. We apply our model to simplified domains that represent four different settings found in coastal wetlands, including a case of a tidal flat free from obstructions or drainage features and three other cases incorporating an inner channel, an embankment with a culvert, and a combination of inner channel, embankment and culvert. We use conditions typical of south-eastern Australia in terms of vegetation, tidal range and sediment load, but we also analyse situations with 3 times the sediment load to assess the potential of biophysical feedbacks to produce increased accretion rates. We find that all wetland settings are unable to cope with SLR and disappear by the end of the century, even for the case of increased sediment load. Wetlands with good drainage that improves tidal flushing are more resilient than wetlands with obstacles that result in tidal attenuation and can delay wetland submergence by 20 years. Results from a bathtub model reveal systematic overprediction of wetland resilience to SLR: by the end of the century, half of the wetland survives with a typical sediment load, while the entire wetland survives with increased sediment load.

Physical-biological interactions limit the resilience of coastal wetlands to sea level rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Rodriguez ◽  
Angelo Breda ◽  
Patricia Saco ◽  
Steven Sandi ◽  
Neil Saintilan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Wetlands ◽  
Biological Interactions ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Computational Framework ◽  
Sediment Loads ◽  
Long Time ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Wetland Evolution

<p>Predictions of the effects of sea-level rise over the next century on coastal wetlands vary widely due to uncertainties on environmental variables, but also due to simplifications on the simulation methodologies used. Here, we investigate how accretion and migration processes affect wetland response to sea level rise (SLR) using a computational framework that includes all relevant hydrodynamic, sediment transport and vegetation dynamics mechanisms that affect wetland evolution, and it is efficient enough computationally to allow the simulation of long time periods. We apply this framework to different settings typically found in coastal wetlands around the world, comprising different vegetation types, different sediment loads, obstructions to flow and drainage structures, both natural and man-made. We find that the vast majority of wetland settings analysed are unable to cope with high SLR rates and disappear before the end of the century. Our findings are consistent with paleo-records that indicate limits on the accretion capacity of coastal wetlands during periods of high SLR rates.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Bridge Fund: Tackling Climate Migration in Bangladesh by Bridging Stakeholder Gaps

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Golam Rabbani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Riverbank Erosion ◽  
Floods And Droughts ◽  
And Migration

Climate change is already happening. In the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that about 72 million people will be displaced with 0.5-metre sea level rise if there is no investment in adaptation. In the case of a 2.0-metre rise, that number of people will be pushed to 187 million. IPCC also provides evidence on increased displacement and migration due to floods and droughts in many countries including Bangladesh. It has been reported “22% of households affected by tidal-surge floods and 16% of households that were affected by riverbank erosion moved to urban areas in Bangladesh”

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