Shale Gas Field Development Planning under Production Profile Uncertainty

AIChE Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zedong Peng ◽  
Can Li ◽  
Ignacio E. Grossmann ◽  
Kysang Kwon ◽  
Sukjoon Ko ◽  
...  
2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Tupper ◽  
Eric Matthews ◽  
Gareth Cooper ◽  
Andy Furniss ◽  
Tim Hicks ◽  
...  

The Waitsia Field represents a new commercial play for the onshore north Perth Basin with potential to deliver substantial reserves and production to the domestic gas market. The discovery was made in 2014 by deepening of the Senecio–3 appraisal well to evaluate secondary reservoir targets. The well successfully delineated the extent of the primary target in the Upper Permian Dongara and Wagina sandstones of the Senecio gas field but also encountered a combination of good-quality and tight gas pay in the underlying Lower Permian Kingia and High Cliff sandstones. The drilling of the Waitsia–1 and Waitsia–2 wells in 2015, and testing of Senecio-3 and Waitsia-1, confirmed the discovery of a large gas field with excellent flow characteristics. Wireline log and pressure data define a gross gas column in excess of 350 m trapped within a low-side fault closure that extends across 50 km2. The occurrence of good-quality reservoir in the depth interval 3,000–3,800 m is diagenetically controlled with clay rims inhibiting quartz cementation and preserving excellent primary porosity. Development planning for Waitsia has commenced with the likelihood of an early production start-up utilising existing wells and gas processing facilities before ramp-up to full-field development. The dry gas will require minimal processing, and access to market is facilitated by the Dampier–Bunbury and Parmelia gas pipelines that pass directly above the field. The Waitsia Field is believed to be the largest conventional Australian onshore discovery for more than 30 years and provides impetus and incentive for continued exploration in mature and frontier basins. The presence of good-quality reservoir and effective fault seal was unexpected and emphasise the need to consider multiple geological scenarios and to test unorthodox ideas with the drill bit.


2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 406
Author(s):  
Vishnu Nair

Moving from conventional to unconventional gas project development requires a significant shift in approach. This presents challenges for operators making this transition, including standards and specifications being mis-matched to functional requirements, the need for robust surface and subsurface field development planning, lack of infrastructure, high construction and procurement costs and the scarcity of supply chain and logistics support. In their need to prove up sufficient reserves in time for downstream LNG plant operations, coal seam gas (CSG) players have neglected the development of appropriate standards, specifications and contracting and procurement strategies that consider how upstream costs can be minimised. This can impact project viability in a high-cost, low-productivity environment. The requirement of shale gas development for continual expansion also presents challenges compared to conventional project development. Adopting a factory approach can ensure a smooth and economic transition through the phase of continual shale gas production across the life of individual wells and through field expansion. Using case studies, this extended abstract describes how innovation can be applied across the gas-gathering development phase of unconventional projects to achieve significant cost savings. Key innovative opportunities include: Maximising modularise construction and operation to reduce the construction schedule and maximise onsite productivity Relocatable, interchangeable, standardised skid designs (design kit approach). Standard modules sized to maximise container volumes (and they minimise freight costs) Low-cost design Asian and Australian fabrication. Fit-for-purpose technology and packages to lower operating costs. Design and fabrication to minimise environmental impacts.


2018 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 01003
Author(s):  
Wike Widyanita ◽  
Nelson Saksono

The deficit of natural gas supply and demand could be minimized by discovering new reserves in conventional or unconventional reservoir. Shale gas potential in Indonesia was estimated 574 TCF and Naintupo Formation in Tarakan Basin had 5 TCF of technically recoverable reserve with 35 TCF risked gas-in-place. This study would discuss technoeconomic aspect of shale gas field development in Naintupo Formation, Tarakan Basin using gross split contract scheme. Three flow profiles would be developed by using Arps hyperbolic decline curves, consist of low flow profile with initial production (qi) of 150 mmcf/mo, medium (qi = 250 mmcf/mo) and high flow profile (qi = 350 mmcf/mo). Costs estimation were based on benchmarking cost of developed shale gas field in United States and nearby oil/gas field development in Tarakan Basin. Economic analysis showed that medium and high flow profile gave positive economic indicator marked by positive NPV and IRR>10%. Sensitivity analysis showed that flow profile gave more effect in NPV and IRR increased than the gas price. In order to develop positive NPV with discount rate of 10%, it is required to sell shale gas at $6.52/MMBTU in high flow profile or $8.42/MMBTU in medium flow profile.


Author(s):  
Peter Tilke ◽  
Wentao Zhou ◽  
Yinli Wang ◽  
Shalini Krishnamurthy ◽  
Mahesh Bhanushali ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galvin Shergill ◽  
Adrian Anton ◽  
Kwangwon Park

Abstract We are all aware that our future is uncertain. Although some aspects can be predicted with more certainty and others with less, essentially everything is uncertain. Uncertainty exists because of lack of data, lack of resources, and lack of understanding. We cannot measure everything, so there are always unknowns. Even measurements include measurement errors. Also, we do not always have enough resources to analyze the data obtained. In addition, we do not have a full understanding of how the world, or the universe, works (Park 2011). Every day we find ourselves in situations where we must make many decisions, big or small. We tend to make the decisions based on a prediction, despite knowing that it is uncertain. For instance, imagine how many decisions are made by people every day based on the probability of it raining tomorrow (i.e., based on the weather forecast). To have a good basis for making a decision, it is of critical importance to correctly model the uncertainty in the forecast. In the oil and gas industry, uncertainties are large and complex. Oil and gas fields have been developed and operated despite tremendous uncertainty in a variety of areas, including undiscovered media and unpredictable fluid in the subsurface, wells, unexpected facility and equipment costs, and economic, political, international, environmental, and many other risks. Another important aspect of uncertainty modeling is the feasibility of verifying the uncertainty model with the actual results. For example, in the weather forecast it was announced that the probability of raining the next day was 20%. And the next day it rained. Do we say the forecast was wrong? Can we say the forecast was right? In order to make sure the uncertainty model is correct; we should strictly verify all the assumptions and follow the mathematically, statistically, proven-to-be-correct methodology to model the uncertainty (Caers et al. 2010; Caers 2011). In this paper, we show an effective, rigorous method of modeling uncertainty in the expected performance of potential field development scenarios in the oil and gas field development planning given uncertainties in various domains from subsurface to economics. The application of this method is enabled by using technology as described in a later section.


AIChE Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zedong Peng ◽  
Can Li ◽  
Ignacio E. Grossmann ◽  
Kysang Kwon ◽  
Sukjoon Ko ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 102-122
Author(s):  
Dr. Jalal A. Al-Sudani ◽  
Eng. Adnan N. Sajet ◽  
Eng. Jalal Ahmed ◽  
Eng. Mohamed Enad ◽  
Dr. Abdul-Hussain H. Al-Shibly ◽  
...  

Akkas gas field is the biggest natural gas field in Iraq that is located in the western desert area. The field contains around (9 BSCF) of approved gas reserve from the conventional rock source. This paper presents field development planning process combined with economic analysis comprises, the number of wells that yields in maximum net present value (NPV), the recovery factor and raw gas production rates for the total number of suggested wells that have been estimated, as well as the cumulative gas produced with time. The development plans were elaborated concerning different types of well geometries and operational constraints. Full comparison analysis for all presented plans regarding NPV, recovery factor, discounted cash flow versus production time, forecasted production rate, as well as forecasted cumulative production with time have been presented. Sensitivity analysis has been made to determine well and reservoir controlling parameters that leads for best operating field development plans. The study shows the effectiveness of horizontal well type compared with vertical wells; as well as, the effect of reservoir permeability on field development plans, the results show that the field could be operated at target plateau rates of (250, 500 and 750 MMSCF/D). It also shows the superior effect of stimulation processes in increasing the NPV and field recovery factor using less number of wells


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