Price Discovery in the Chinese Corn Futures Market, With Comparisons to Soybean Futures

Agribusiness ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 398-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunxian Yan ◽  
Michael Reed
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Futures Market

Does Commodity Derivatives Function Effectively? A lengthy Discussion

2021 ◽  
pp. 227797522098574
Author(s):  
Bhabani Sankar Rout ◽  
Nupur Moni Das ◽  
K. Chandrasekhara Rao
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
The Other ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Commodity Derivatives ◽  
Derivative Market ◽  
Negative Shock ◽  
Lengthy Discussion

The present work has been designed to intensely investigate the capability of the commodity futures market in achieving the aim of price discovery. Further, the downside of the cash and futures market and transfer of the risk to other markets has also been studied using VaR, and Bivariate EGARCH. The findings of the work point that the metal commodity derivative market helps in the efficient discovery of price in the spot market except for nickel. But, in the case of the agricultural commodities, the spot is found to be leading and thus there is no price discovery except turmeric. On the other hand, the volatility spillover is bidirectional for both agri and metal commodities except copper, where volatility spills only from futures to spot. Further, the effect of negative shock informational bias differs from commodity to commodity, irrespective of metal or agriculture.

An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Wasim Ahmad ◽  
Florent Deisting
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the price discovery and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of four currencies (namely, USD/INR, EURO/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR) and between futures prices of both stock exchanges namely, Multi-Commodity Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Design/methodology/approach – The study applies cointegration test of Johansen’s along with VECM to investigate the price discovery. GARCH-BEKK model is used to examine the volatility spillover between spot and futures and between futures prices. The other two models namely, constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are used to demonstrate the constant and time-varying correlations. In order to confirm the volatility spillover results, the study also applies test of directional spillovers suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012). Findings – The results of the study show that there is long-term equilibrium relationship between spot and futures and between futures markets. Between futures and spot prices, futures price appears to lead the spot price in the short-run. Volatility spillover results indicate that the movement of volatility spillover takes place from futures to spot in the short-run while spot to futures found in the long-run. However, the results of between futures markets exhibit the dominance of MCX-SX over NSE in terms of volatility spillovers. By and large, the findings of the study indicate the important role of futures market in price discovery as well as volatility spillovers in India’s currency market. Practical implications – The results highlight the role of futures market in the information transmission process as it appears to assimilate new information quicker than spot market. Hence, policymakers in emerging markets such as India should focus on the development of necessary institutional and fiscal architecture, as well as regulatory reforms, so that the currency market trading platforms can achieve greater liquidity and efficiency. Originality/value – Due to recent development of currency futures market, there is dearth of literature on this subject. With the apparent importance of currency market in recent time, this study attempts to study the efficient behavior of currency market by way of examining the price discovery and volatility spillovers between spot and futures and between futures prices of four currencies traded on two platforms. The study has strong implications for India’s stock market especially at the time when its currency is under great strain owing to the adverse impact of global financial crisis.

Price Discovery Process and Volatility Spillover in Spot and Futures Markets: Evidences of Individual Stocks

2010 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Mallikarjunappa ◽  
E M Afsal
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
Spot Volatility ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper analyses information-based superiority of markets mainly with an objective of exploring arbitrage opportunities. It attempts to determine the lead-lag relationship between spot and futures markets in the Indian context by using high frequency price data of twelve individual stocks, observed at one-minute interval. The study applies the concept of co-integration and establishes the spot-futures relationship using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) represented by EGARCH framework. To study the price discovery process in the two markets, five lags each of one-minute resolution for nine individual stocks and four lags for the remaining three stocks are chosen. The key results of the study are given below: There is a contemporaneous and bi-directional lead-lag relationship between the spot and futures markets. A feedback mechanism of short life is functional between the two markets. Price discovery occurs in both the markets simultaneously. There exists short-term disequilibrium that could be corrected in the next period. Volatility spillover from spot market to futures market is present in such a way that a decrease in spot volatility leads to a decrease in futures volatility. Volatility shocks are asymmetric and persistent in both the markets. Spillover from futures market to spot market is not significant. Neither spot nor futures assume a considerable leading role and neither of the markets is supreme in price discovery. In the case of 33.33 per cent of spot values and 33.33 per cent of futures values, there exists short-term disequilibrium that could be corrected in the next period by decreasing the prices. Spot market volatility spills over to futures market in most of the cases (66.66 %) and a decrease in spot volatility brings about a decrease in futures volatility in 50 per cent of the cases. Spillover effect from futures to spot market is present and significant in 91.66 per cent of stocks and is more than the spillover effect from spot to futures (50% valid cases). The markets are highly integrated. Asymmetric behaviour of volatility shocks is mixed in both the markets. Asymmetric volatility is detected in 50 per cent of the cases of spot market and 58.33 per cent cases of futures market. Stocks exhibiting asymmetric volatility show more sensitivity to negative shocks. There are no cases of market becoming more volatile in response to good news.

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