Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location

2017 ◽  
Vol 122 (9) ◽  
pp. 7252-7271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Sepúlveda ◽  
Philip L.-F. Liu ◽  
Mircea Grigoriu ◽  
Matthew Pritchard
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Hazard Assessments

scholarly journals UNCERTAINTY OF BATHYMETRY MODELS AND EFFECT ON TSUNAMI MODELS

2020 ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Ignacio Sepulveda ◽  
Jennifer S. Haase ◽  
Philip L.-F. Liu ◽  
Mircea Grigoriu ◽  
Brook Tozer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Random Field ◽  
Field Model ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Response Uncertainty ◽  
Random Field Model ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
The Impact

We describe the uncertainties of altimetry-predicted bathymetry models and then quantify the impact of this uncertainty in tsunami hazard assessments. The study consists of three stages. First, we study the statistics of errors of altimetry-predicted bathymetry models. Second, we employ these statistics to propose a random field model for errors anywhere. Third, we use bathymetry samples to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation and describe the tsunami response uncertainty. We found that bathymetry uncertainties have a greater impact in shallow areas. We also noted that tsunami leading waves are less affected by uncertainties.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/zzL_XWWAQ7o

Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in the Coquimbo Region Using Nonuniform Slip Distribution Sources

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Fuentes Serrano ◽  
Sebastián Riquelme Muñoz ◽  
Miguel Medina ◽  
Matias Mocanu ◽  
Rodrigo Filippi Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Nonuniform Slip

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami inundation assessment of Kuroshio Town,Kochi Prefecture, Japan considering the Nankai-Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katsuichiro Goda ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Grid Data ◽  
Seismic Region ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Coastal Defense ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Tsunami Scenarios ◽  
Management Council ◽  
Kochi Prefecture

Abstract. The Nankai-Tonankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai-Tonankai Trough events, focusing upon the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1,000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10-m and coastal defense structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office.

scholarly journals High Delity Elastic Green's Functions for Subduction Zone Models Consistent With the Global Standard Geodetic Reference System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takane Hori ◽  
Ryoichiro Agata ◽  
Tsuyoshi Ichimura ◽  
Kohei Fujita ◽  
Takuma Yamaguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reference System ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Geodetic Reference System ◽  
Coordinate Systems ◽  
Ellipsoidal Shape ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Realistic Topography

Abstract Green's functions (GFs) for elastic deformation due to unit slip on the fault plane comprise an essential tool for estimating earthquake rupture and underground preparation processes. These estimation results are often applied to generate important information for public such as seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. So, it is important to minimize the distortion of the estimation results on the numerical models used for calculating GFs to guarantee assessment reliability. For this purpose, we here calculated GFs based on a numerical model that is of high delity to obtain realistic topography and subsurface structural models of the Earth. We targeted two well-known subduction zones in Japan, the Nankai Trough and the Japan Trench. For these subduction zones, databases for realistic topography and subsurface structural models of the Earth are available in the \Japan integrated velocity structure model version 1", which was proposed for earthquake hazard assessments conducted by the Japanese government.Furthermore, in order to eliminate inconsistencies in data processing of the calculated and observed response, we used the same coordinate systems for processing GFs as those adopted widely to process space geodetic observation data for surface displacements. The ellipsoidal shape of the Earth, which is often approximated with a projected plane or a spherical shape, was also incorporated by faithfully following the denitions of the coordinate systems in Geodetic Reference System 1980, which is the global standard for space geodesy. To calculate elastic GFs based on such high delity subduction zone databases with the ellipsoidal shape of the Earth, we introduced the nite element (FE) method. In the FE meshes, the resolution of the topography and subsurface structure is the same as that of the original databases. Recent development of the state-of-the-art computation techniques for the rapid calculation of crustal deformation using large-scale FE models allows for GF calculation based on such a high delity model. However, it is generally not easy to perform such calculations. Thus, we released a library for the GFs calculated in this study to the geoscience community on a web server, aiming to contribute more reliable seismic and tsunami hazard assessment.

Testing Slip Models for Tsunami Generation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafize Başak Bayraktar ◽  
Antonio Scala ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Manuela Volpe ◽  
Carlos Sánchez Linares ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Tsunami Observations ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Tsunami Waveforms ◽  
The Pacific Ocean

<p>Tsunami hazard depends strongly on the slip distribution of a causative earthquake. Simplified uniform slip models lead to underestimating the tsunami wave height which would be generated by a more realistic heterogeneous slip distribution, both in the near-field and in the far-field of the tsunami source. Several approaches have been proposed to generate stochastic slip distributions for tsunami hazard calculations, including in some cases shallow slip amplification (Le Veque et al., 2016; Sepulveda et al., 2017; Davies 2019; Scala et al., 2020). However, due to the relative scarcity of tsunami data, the inter-comparison of these models and the calibration of their parameters against observations is a challenging yet very much needed task, also in view of their use for tsunami hazard assessment.</p><p>Davies (2019) compared a variety of approaches, which consider both depth-dependent and depth-independent slip models in subduction zones by comparing the simulated tsunami waveforms with DART records of 18 tsunami events in the Pacific Ocean. Model calibration was also proposed by Davies and Griffin (2020).</p><p>Here, to further progress along similar lines, we compare synthetic tsunamis produced by kinematic slip models obtained with teleseismic inversions from Ye et al. (2016) and by recent stochastic slip generation techniques (Scala et al., 2020) against tsunami observations at open ocean DART buoys, for the same 18 earthquakes and ensuing tsunamis analyzed by Davies (2019). Given the magnitude and location of the real earthquakes, we consider ensembles of consistent slipping areas and slip distributions, accounting for both constant and depth-dependent rigidity models. Tsunami simulations are performed for about 68.000 scenarios in total, using the Tsunami-HySEA code (Macías et al., 2016). The simulated results are validated and compared to the DART observations in the same framework considered by Davies (2019).</p>

scholarly journals Non‐stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate‐change‐driven Sea Level Rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Sepúlveda ◽  
Jennifer S. Haase ◽  
Philip L.‐F Liu ◽  
Mircea Grigoriu ◽  
Patricio Winckler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessments

Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in the Coquimbo Region Using Nonuniform Slip Distribution Sources

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Fuentes Serrano ◽  
Sebastián Riquelme Muñoz ◽  
Miguel Medina ◽  
Matias Mocanu ◽  
Rodrigo Filippi Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Nonuniform Slip

scholarly journals Uncertainty quantification of tsunami inundation in Kuroshio, Kochi Prefecture, Japan, using the Nankai–Tonankai megathrust rupture scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 3039-3056
Author(s):  
Katsuichiro Goda ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Grid Data ◽  
Seismic Region ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Tsunami Scenarios ◽  
Management Council ◽  
Kochi Prefecture

Abstract. Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events as those having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10 m and coastal defence structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such tsunami hazard assessments and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office.

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENTS WITH CONSIDERATION OF UNCERTAIN EARTHQUAKE CHARACTERISTICS

2018 ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Ignacio Sepulveda ◽  
Philip L-F Liu ◽  
Mircea Grigoriu ◽  
Matthew Pritchard
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Random Field ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Manila Trench ◽  
Stochastic Framework ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Hazard Assessments ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Earthquake Characteristics

This study proposes a methodology to conduct probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHA) with consideration of uncertain earthquake characteristics. The methodology adopts a stochastic framework to model the earthquake slip and location as a random field and a random vector, respectively. The stochastic framework consists of three stages: (1) the definition of consistent probability properties for uncertain earthquake characteristics, (2) the generation of samples and (3) the uncertainty propagation. To complete each stage we follow the method recently proposed in Sepúlveda et al. (2017). We illustrate our PTHA methodology by assessing the tsunami hazard in Kao Hsiung and Hong Kong, with consideration of earthquakes in the Manila Trench.

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