scholarly journals Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 1011-1019 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Zappa ◽  
F. Pithan ◽  
T. G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

scholarly journals Internal Variability in Projections of Twenty-First-Century Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Role of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Wettstein ◽  
Clara Deser
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Rossby Wave Train ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Internal variability in twenty-first-century summer Arctic sea ice loss and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated in a 39-member Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) ensemble for the period 2000–61. Each member is subject to an identical greenhouse gas emissions scenario and differs only in the atmospheric model component's initial condition. September Arctic sea ice extent trends during 2020–59 range from −2.0 × 106 to −5.7 × 106 km2 across the 39 ensemble members, indicating a substantial role for internal variability in future Arctic sea ice loss projections. A similar nearly threefold range (from −7.0 × 103 to −19 × 103 km3) is found for summer sea ice volume trends. Higher rates of summer Arctic sea ice loss in CCSM3 are associated with enhanced transpolar drift and Fram Strait ice export driven by surface wind and sea level pressure patterns. Over the Arctic, the covarying atmospheric circulation patterns resemble the so-called Arctic dipole, with maximum amplitude between April and July. Outside the Arctic, an atmospheric Rossby wave train over the Pacific sector is associated with internal ice loss variability. Interannual covariability patterns between sea ice and atmospheric circulation are similar to those based on trends, suggesting that similar processes govern internal variability over a broad range of time scales. Interannual patterns of CCSM3 ice–atmosphere covariability compare well with those in nature and in the newer CCSM4 version of the model, lending confidence to the results. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns in CCSM3 suggest that the tropical Pacific modulates Arctic sea ice variability via the aforementioned Rossby wave train. Large ensembles with other coupled models are needed to corroborate these CCSM3-based findings.

scholarly journals The Role of Extratropical Ocean Warming in the Coupled Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (22) ◽  
pp. 9193-9206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Blackport ◽  
Paul J. Kushner
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss is investigated using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and uncoupled atmospheric-only (AGCM) experiments. Coupled AOGCM experiments driven by sea ice albedo reduction and greenhouse gas–dominated radiative forcing are used to diagnose the extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to sea ice loss. Sea ice loss is then imposed in AGCM experiments both with and without these extratropical SST changes, which are found to extend beyond the regions where sea ice is lost. Sea ice loss in isolation drives warming that is confined to the Arctic lower troposphere and only a weak atmospheric circulation response. When the extratropical SST response caused by sea ice loss is also included in the forcing, the warming extends into the Arctic midtroposphere during winter. This coincides with a stronger atmospheric circulation response, including an equatorward shift in the eddy-driven jet, a deepening of the Aleutian low, and an expansion of the Siberian high. Similar results are found whether the extratropical SST forcing is taken directly from the AOGCM driven by sea ice loss, or whether they are diagnosed using a two-parameter pattern scaling technique where tropical adjustment to sea ice loss is removed. These results suggest that AGCM experiments that are driven by sea ice loss and only local SST increases will underestimate the Arctic midtroposphere warming and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, compared to AOGCM simulations and the real world.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3693-3713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Oudar ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Fabrice Chauvin ◽  
Julien Cattiaux ◽  
Laurent Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

scholarly journals Recent summer Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies in a historical perspective

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 4823-4847 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Belleflamme ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
The Arctic Region

Abstract. A significant increase in the summertime occurrence of a high pressure area over the Beaufort Sea and Greenland has been observed from the beginning of the 2000's, and particularly between 2007 and 2012. These circulation anomalies are likely partly responsible for the enhanced Greenland ice sheet melt as well as the Arctic sea ice loss observed since 2007. Therefore, it is interesting to analyse whether similar conditions might have happened since the late 19th century over the Arctic region. We have used an atmospheric circulation type classification based on daily mean sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height data from four reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and 20CRv2) to put the recent circulation anomalies in perspective with the atmospheric circulation variability since 1871. We found that circulation conditions similar to 2007–2012 have occurred in the past, despite a higher uncertainty of the reconstructed circulation before 1940. But the recent anomalies largely exceed the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of the Arctic region. These circulation anomalies are linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation suggesting that they are not limited to the Arctic. Finally, they favour summertime Arctic sea ice loss.

scholarly journals A Cold Event in Asia during January–February 2012 and Its Possible Association with Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (19) ◽  
pp. 7971-7990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingyi Wu ◽  
Kun Yang ◽  
Jennifer A. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
Central Eurasia ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Northeastern Pacific ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Through both observational analyses and simulation experiments, this study investigates the intraseasonal evolution of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with a persistent cold event in the Asian continent during late January–early February 2012, and the possible association with Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic atmospheric circulation during the preceding summer. The results suggest that the northeastern Pacific–Aleutian region and central Eurasia are two critical areas where the atmospheric circulation evolution contributed to the development of this cold event. A persistent increase in sea level pressure (SLP) over the Aleutian region was a predominant feature prior to the cold event, and then decreasing SLP over this region was concurrent with both occurrence of a polar blocking high aloft and rapid strengthening of the Siberian high, triggering outbreaks of Arctic air over the Asian continent. Consequently, the influence of the Aleutian region on this cold event (i.e., the downstream effect of the atmospheric circulation) played a critical role. Simulation experiments demonstrate that Arctic atmospheric circulation conditions in the summer of 2011 significantly enhanced a negative feedback of Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation over the Aleutian region and central Eurasia during the ensuing wintertime, which could have led to the favorable atmospheric circulation that facilitated the occurrence of cold events resembling the one in 2012. This study also implies that the Aleutian low and disturbances in the midlatitudes over the northeastern Pacific may provide precursors that could increase skill in predicting the intraseasonal evolution of extreme cold events over Eurasia.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Global Coupled Climate Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss during 1990–2090 and Its Contribution to Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (19) ◽  
pp. 7823-7843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lantao Sun ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
Clara Deser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The role of transient Arctic sea ice loss in the projected greenhouse gas–induced late-twentieth- to late-twenty-first-century climate change is investigated using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Coupled Model version 3. Two sets of simulations have been conducted, one with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 radiative forcing and the second with RCP forcing but with Arctic sea ice nudged to its 1990 state. The difference between the two five-member sets indicates the influence of decreasing Arctic sea ice on the climate system. Within the Arctic, sea ice loss is found to be a primary driver of the surface temperature and precipitation changes. Arctic sea ice depletion also plays a dominant role in projected Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening and changes in North Atlantic extratropical sea surface temperature and salinity, especially in the first half century. The effect of present-day Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical atmospheric circulation is small relative to internal variability and the future sea ice loss effect on atmospheric circulation is distinct from the projected anthropogenic change. Arctic sea ice loss warms NH extratropical continents and is an important contributor to global warming not only over high latitudes but also in the eastern United States. Last, the Arctic sea ice loss displaces the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) equatorward and induces a “mini-global warming” in the tropical upper troposphere.

scholarly journals An Observational Estimate of the Direct Response of the Cold-Season Atmospheric Circulation to the Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3863-3882
Author(s):  
Amélie Simon ◽  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Guillaume Gastineau ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Direct Response ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

AbstractThe direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow-cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January–March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. An SIC impact on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2°–3°C decade−1 winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40–60 m decade−1 increase in the height of the Iceland high, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed.

Trends in Arctic sea ice and the role of atmospheric circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayo Ogi ◽  
Ignatius G. Rigor
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea
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