On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (15) ◽  
pp. 7865-7875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability

scholarly journals The Role of Forcings in the Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: The 1940–75 North Atlantic Cooling Case Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (18) ◽  
pp. 7317-7337 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bellucci ◽  
A. Mariotti ◽  
S. Gualdi
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Multidecadal Variability

Abstract Results from a study inspecting the origins of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) are presented. The authors target in particular the 1940–75 “warm-to-cold” transition, an event that is generally framed in the context of the longer-term Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) cycle, in turn associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) internal variability. Here the authors examine the ability of uninitialized, historical integrations from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive to retrospectively reproduce this specific episode of twentieth-century climatic history, under a hierarchy of forcing conditions. For this purpose, both standard and so-called historical Misc CMIP5 simulations of the historical climate (combining selected natural and anthropogenic forcings) are exploited. Based on this multimodel analysis, evidence is found for a significant influence of anthropogenic agents on multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations across the Atlantic sector, suggesting that anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases might have played a key role in the 1940–75 North Atlantic cooling. However, the diagnosed forced response in CMIP5 models appears to be affected by a large uncertainty, with only a limited subset of models displaying significant skill in reproducing the mid-twentieth-century NASST cooling. Such uncertainty originates from the existence of well-defined behavioral clusters within the analyzed CMIP5 ensembles, with the bulk of the models splitting into two main clusters. Such a strong polarization calls for some caution when using a multimodel ensemble mean in climate model analyses, as averaging across fairly distinct model populations may result, through mutual cancellation, in a rather artificial description of the actual multimodel ensemble behavior. A potentially important role for both anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases with regard to the observed North Atlantic multidecadal variability has clear implications for decadal predictability and predictions. The uncertainty associated with alternative aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios should be duly accounted for in designing a common protocol for coordinated decadal forecast experiments.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Ocean’s Role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3019-3035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laifang Li ◽  
M. Susan Lozier ◽  
Martha W. Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Idealized Model

AbstractA mechanistic understanding of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is highly desirable since it will considerably aid regional and global climate predictions. Although ocean dynamics have long been invoked to explain the AMV, recent studies have cast doubt on its influence. Here we evaluate the necessity of ocean dynamics for the AMV using an observationally based idealized model that isolates the contribution of atmospheric forcing to the AMV. By demonstrating that this model underestimates the magnitude of the observed sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical North Atlantic, we infer that ocean dynamics contribute significantly to the AMV in this region. This inference holds when we add anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the effects of mixed layer depth variability to the idealized model. Thus, our study suggests that ocean heat transport convergence is needed to explain sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical North Atlantic. Sustained ocean observing systems in the this region will help untangle the physical mechanisms involved.

Anthropogenic aerosols modulated twentieth-century Sahel rainfall variability via impacts on North Atlantic sea surface temperature

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shipeng Zhang ◽  
Philip Stier ◽  
Guy Dagan ◽  
Minghuai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Sahel Rainfall

<p>Sahel rainfall experienced significant multidecadal variability over the twentieth century. Previous work have proposed several drivers to explain the severe drought and the subsequent recovery of Sahel rainfall in the past century, including anthropogenic aerosols, GHGs, and internal variabilities. However, the attribution remained ambiguous. Sahel summertime monsoon has close teleconnections with North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) variability, which has been proven to be affected by aerosols. Therefore, changes in regional aerosols emission can potentially drive multidecadal Sahel rainfall variability.</p><p>Here we use ensembles of state-of-the-art global climate models (the CESM-large ensemble and CMIP6 models) and observational datasets to demonstrate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant impacts on twentieth-century Sahel rainfall multidecadal variability through modifying NASST. Aerosol-induced multidecadal variations of downward solar fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean cause NASST variability during the 20<sup>th</sup> century, altering the strength of the Hadley cell and the ITCZ position, therefore, dynamically linking aerosol effects to Sahel rainfall variability. While the observed linear trend of NASST might still be affected by a mix of various external and internal drivers, our results suggest that NASST variability is most likely caused by aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes rather than changes in ocean circulations, and that anthropogenic aerosols can explain most of the detrended Sahel rainfall variability. CMIP6 models further suggest that aerosol-cloud interactions contributed more to the variability than aerosol-radiation interactions. These findings highlight the importance of accurate representation of regional aerosol radiative effects for the simulation of Sahel rainfall variability.</p>

scholarly journals The SST Multidecadal Variability in the Atlantic–Mediterranean Region and Its Relation to AMO

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4385-4401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Marullo ◽  
Vincenzo Artale ◽  
Rosalia Santoleri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract Two sea surface temperature (SST) time series, the Extended Reconstructed SST version 3 (ERSST.v3) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), are used to investigate SST multidecadal variability in the Mediterranean Sea and to explore possible connections with other regions of the global ocean. The consistency between these two time series and the original International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset version 2.5 (ICOADS 2.5) over the Mediterranean Sea is investigated, evaluating differences from monthly to multidecadal scales. From annual to longer time scales, the two time series consistently describe the same trends and multidecadal oscillations and agree with Mediterranean ICOADS SSTs. At monthly time scales the two time series are less consistent with each other because of the evident annual cycle that characterizes their difference. The subsequent analysis of the Mediterranean annual SST time series, based on lagged-correlation analysis, multitaper method (MTM), and singular spectral analysis (SSA), revealed the presence of a significant oscillation with a period of about 70 yr, very close to that of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). An extension of the analysis to other World Ocean regions confirmed that the predominance of this multidecadal signal with respect to longer period trends is a unique feature of the Mediterranean and North Atlantic Ocean, where it reaches its maximum at subpolar latitudes. Signatures of multidecadal oscillations are also found in the global SST time series after removing centennial and longer-term components. The analysis also reveals that Mediterranean SST and North Atlantic indices are significantly correlated and coherent for periods longer than about 40 yr. For time scales in the range 40–55 yr the coherence between the Mediterranean and subpolar gyre temperatures is higher than the coherence between the Mediterranean SST and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or AMO. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed in the light of possible climate mechanisms that can couple the Mediterranean Sea with the North Atlantic and the Global Ocean.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document