scholarly journals The 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season: A season of extremes

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 5071-5077 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer M. Collins ◽  
David R. Roache
2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1209-1219 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Thomas H. Jagger ◽  
Michael Dickinson ◽  
Dail Rowe

Abstract Hurricanes cause drastic social problems as well as generate huge economic losses. A reliable forecast of the level of hurricane activity covering the next several seasons has the potential to mitigate against such losses through improvements in preparedness and insurance mechanisms. Here a statistical algorithm is developed to predict North Atlantic hurricane activity out to 5 yr. The algorithm has two components: a time series model to forecast average hurricane-season Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), and a regression model to forecast the hurricane rate given the predicted SST value. The algorithm uses Monte Carlo sampling to generate distributions for the predicted SST and model coefficients. For a given forecast year, a predicted hurricane count is conditional on a sampled predicted value of Atlantic SST. Thus forecasts are samples of hurricane counts for each future year. Model skill is evaluated over the period 1997–2005 and compared against climatology, persistence, and other multiseasonal forecasts issued during this time period. Results indicate that the algorithm will likely improve on earlier efforts and perhaps carry enough skill to be useful in the long-term management of hurricane risk.


2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (4) ◽  
pp. 1070-1082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
...  

Abstract Skillfully predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of potential societal significance and a useful test of our understanding of the factors controlling hurricane activity. In this paper, a statistical–dynamical hurricane forecasting system, based on a statistical hurricane model, with explicit uncertainty estimates, and built from a suite of high-resolution global atmospheric dynamical model integrations spanning a broad range of climate states is described. The statistical model uses two climate predictors: the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical North Atlantic and SST averaged over the global tropics. The choice of predictors is motivated by physical considerations, as well as the results of high-resolution hurricane modeling and statistical modeling of the observed record. The statistical hurricane model is applied to a suite of initialized dynamical global climate model forecasts of SST to predict North Atlantic hurricane frequency, which peaks during the August–October season, from different starting dates. Retrospective forecasts of the 1982–2009 period indicate that skillful predictions can be made from as early as November of the previous year; that is, skillful forecasts for the coming North Atlantic hurricane season could be made as the current one is closing. Based on forecasts initialized between November 2009 and March 2010, the model system predicts that the upcoming 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season will likely be more active than the 1982–2009 climatology, with the forecasts initialized in March 2010 predicting an expected hurricane count of eight and a 50% probability of counts between six (the 1966–2009 median) and nine.


2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yung Y. Chao ◽  
Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves ◽  
Hendrik L. Tolman

Abstract A new wind–wave prediction model, referred to as the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave model, has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to produce forecasts of hurricane-generated waves during the Atlantic hurricane season. A detailed description of this model and a comparison of its performance against the operational western North Atlantic (WNA) wave model during Hurricanes Isidore and Lili, in 2002, are presented. The NAH and WNA models are identical in their physics and numerics. The NAH model uses a wind field obtained by blending data from NCEP’s operational Global Forecast System (GFS) with those from a higher-resolution hurricane prediction model, whereas the WNA wave model uses winds provided exclusively by the GFS. Relative biases of the order of 10% in the prediction of maximum wave heights up to 48 h in advance, indicate that the use of higher-resolution winds in the NAH model provides a successful framework for predicting extreme sea states generated by a hurricane. Consequently, the NAH model has been made operational at NCEP for use during the Atlantic hurricane season.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2363-2379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan Zhang ◽  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
Melinda S. Peng ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir

This study investigates the characteristics of extratropical Rossby wave breaking (RWB) during the Atlantic hurricane season and its impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It was found that RWB perturbs the wind and moisture fields throughout the troposphere in the vicinity of a breaking wave. When RWB occurs more frequently over the North Atlantic, the Atlantic main development region (MDR) is subject to stronger vertical wind shear and reduced tropospheric moisture; the basinwide TC counts are reduced, and TCs are generally less intense, have a shorter lifetime, and are less likely to make landfalls. A significant negative correlation was found between Atlantic TC activity and RWB occurrence during 1979–2013. The correlation is comparable to that with the MDR SST index and stronger than that with the Niño-3.4 index. Further analyses suggest that the variability of RWB occurrence in the western Atlantic is largely independent of that in the eastern Atlantic. The RWB occurrence in the western basin is more closely tied to the environmental variability of the tropical North Atlantic and is more likely to hinder TC intensification or reduce the TC lifetime because of its proximity to the central portion of TC tracks. Consequently, the basinwide TC counts and the accumulated cyclone energy have a strong correlation with western-basin RWB occurrence but only a moderate correlation with eastern-basin RWB occurrence. The results highlight the extratropical impacts on Atlantic TC activity and regional climate via RWB and provide new insights into the variability and predictability of TC activity.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. e813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Camp ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Julian Heming

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Saunders ◽  
P. J. Klotzbach ◽  
A. S. R. Lea ◽  
C. J. Schreck ◽  
M. M. Bell

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (10) ◽  
pp. 3425-3443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Carl J. Schreck III ◽  
Jennifer M. Collins ◽  
Michael M. Bell ◽  
Eric S. Blake ◽  
...  

Abstract The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 17 named storms (1981–2010 median is 12.0), 10 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 6 major hurricanes (median is 2.0), and 245% of median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) occurring. September 2017 generated more Atlantic named storm days, hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE than any other calendar month on record. The season was destructive, with Harvey and Irma devastating portions of the continental United States, while Irma and Maria brought catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico, Cuba, and many other Caribbean islands. Seasonal forecasts increased from calling for a slightly below-normal season in April to an above-normal season in August as large-scale environmental conditions became more favorable for an active hurricane season. During that time, the tropical Atlantic warmed anomalously while a potential El Niño decayed in the Pacific. Anomalously high SSTs prevailed across the tropical Atlantic, and vertical wind shear was anomalously weak, especially in the central tropical Atlantic, from late August to late September when several major hurricanes formed. Late-season hurricane activity was likely reduced by a convectively suppressed phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation. The large-scale steering flow was different from the average over the past decade with a strong subtropical high guiding hurricanes farther west across the Atlantic. The anomalously high tropical Atlantic SSTs and low vertical wind shear were comparable to other very active seasons since 1982.


2001 ◽  
Vol 82 (6s) ◽  
pp. S1-S56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay H. Lawrimore ◽  
Michael S. Halpert ◽  
Gerald D. Bell ◽  
Matthew J. Menne ◽  
Bradfield Lyon ◽  
...  

The global climate in 2000 was again influenced by the long-running Pacific cold episode (La Niña) that began in mid-1998. Consistent with past cold episodes, enhanced convection occurred across the climatologically convective regions of Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific, while convection was suppressed in the central Pacific. The La Niña was also associated with a well-defined African easterly jet located north of its climatological mean position and low vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, both of which contributed to an active North Atlantic hurricane season. Precipitation patterns influenced by typical La Niña conditions included 1) above-average rainfall in southeastern Africa, 2) unusually heavy rainfall in northern and central regions of Australia, 3) enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, 4) little rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, 5) below-normal precipitation over equatorial east Africa, and 6) drier-than-normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the United States. Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2000, another active North Atlantic hurricane season featured 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, with 3 growing to major hurricane strength. All of the named storms over the North Atlantic formed during the August–October period with the first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alberto, notable as the third-longest-lived tropical system since reliable records began in 1945. The primary human loss during the 2000 season occurred in Central America, where Hurricane Gordon killed 19 in Guatemala, and Hurricane Keith killed 19 in Belize and caused $200 million dollars of damage. Other regional events included 1) record warm January–October temperatures followed by record cold November–December temperatures in the United States, 2) extreme drought and widespread wildfires in the southern and western Unites States, 3) continued long-term drought in the Hawaiian Islands throughout the year with record 24-h rainfall totals in November, 4) deadly storms and flooding in western Europe in October, 5) a summer heat wave and drought in southern Europe, 6) monsoon flooding in parts of Southeast Asia and India, 7) extreme winter conditions in Mongolia, 8) extreme long-term drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and 9) severe flooding in southern Africa. Global mean temperatures remained much above average in 2000. The average land and ocean temperature was 0.39°C above the 1880–1999 long-term mean, continuing a trend to warmer-than-average temperatures that made the 1990s the warmest decade on record. While the persistence of La Niña conditions in 2000 was associated with somewhat cooler temperatures in the Tropics, temperatures in the extratropics remained near record levels. Land surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were notably warmer than normal, with annually averaged anomalies greater than 2°C in parts of Alaska, Canada, Asia, and northern Europe.


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