scholarly journals Efficient evaluation of small failure probability in high-dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling via a two-stage Monte Carlo method

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 1948-1962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangjiang Zhang ◽  
Weixuan Li ◽  
Guang Lin ◽  
Lingzao Zeng ◽  
Laosheng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Contaminant Transport ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Transport Modeling ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Small Failure Probability ◽  
Contaminant Transport Modeling

Reliability Analysis of Embankment Slope in Yaan-Luku Expressway

2011 ◽  
Vol 71-78 ◽  
pp. 1360-1365
Author(s):  
Jian Quan Ma ◽  
Guang Jie Li ◽  
Shi Bo Li ◽  
Pei Hua Xu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Natural State ◽  
State Function ◽  
Embankment Slope ◽  
The Times ◽  
Distribution Type

Take a typical cross-section of rockfill embankment slope in Yaan-Luku highway as the research object, reliability analysis is studied under the condition of water table of 840.85m, 851.50m, and loading condition of natural state and horizontal seismic acceleration of 0.2g, respectively. Raw data use Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S test) to determine the distribution type of parametric variation. And the parameters were sampling with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method and Monte Carlo (MC) method, respectively, to obtain state function and determine safety factors and reliability indexes. A conclusion is drawn that the times of simulation based on LHS method were less than Monte Carlo method. Also the convergence of failure probability is better than the Monte Carlo method. The safety factor is greater than one and the failure probability has reached to 35.45% in condition of earthquake, which indicating that the instability of rockfill embankment slope is still possible.

Monte Carlo Optimization of Two-Stage Cascade R134A Refrigeration System With Flash Chamber

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yousef M. Abdel-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Pressure Ratio ◽  
Volume Ratio ◽  
Heat Rate ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Specific Work ◽  
Refrigeration System ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Monte Carlo Optimization

Present paper studies the optimal characteristics of the two-stage cascade R134A refrigeration system with flash and mixing chambers over its operating ranges of all cycle controlling parameters. The COP, total heat rate in Qin, total work rate in Win and second law efficiency ηII are used as cycle performance parameters. Compared to the practically-limited other rate-based optimization methods and to other experimentally-optimized specific cases of cycle parameters, the application of Monte Carlo method has proved to be very effective for optimizing the cycle performance in its global sense over all cycle controlling parameters. Correlations relating performance and cycle controlling parameters are presented and discussed. Study shows that COP of the cycle can reach a value of 8 at intermediate pressure P2 of about 200 kPa, and a maximum value of 9.92 at about 370 kPa and 720 kPa, beyond which COP goes as low as 4.2. P2 alone has no significant effect on Qin, Win and ηII unless values of other controlling parameters are specified. Values of Qin, Win and ηII can reach as high as 94 kW, 23 kW and 0.85 and as low as 6.8 kW, 1.1 kW and 0.57 respectively depending on other cycle parameters. Neither pressure ratio nor volume ratio of the HP compressor has any effect on Qin, Win or ηII. However, the ratio of inlet to exit temperatures of the condenser has the greatest effect on both ηII and the volumetric specific work of the HP compressor, which is about double the value of the volumetric specific work of the LP compressor. Study shows an almost linear relationship between the two mass flow rates in the upper and lower loops of the cycle, where its value in the lower LP loop is about 75% that in the upper HP loop. Findings of the present work as well as the elaborate application of Monte Carlo method to real cycles can greatly open the way for reducing the trade-off design methods currently used in developing such systems as well as direct the useful experimentations and assessment of such designed systems.

An Improved FOSM Method for Calculating the Failure Probability of Welded Pipes with Cracks

2004 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 561-566
Author(s):  
Li Xing Huo ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
You Feng Zhang ◽  
Fang Juan Qi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Linear Expansion ◽  
Failure Function ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

To increase the accuracy of R-F method, it is necessary to solve the problems of the linear expansion of failure function and non-normal variables. In this paper, the improved FOSM method was applied to calculate the failure probability of welded pipes with cracks. The examples show that this method is simple, efficient and accurate for reliability safety assessment of welded pipes with cracks. It can save more time than the Monte Carlo method does, so that the improved FOSM method is recommended for general engineering reliability safety assessment of welded pipes with cracks.

Failure probability estimation of steam turbine blades by enhanced Monte Carlo Method

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 80-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.A. Rodríguez ◽  
J.C. Garcia ◽  
E. Alonso ◽  
Y. El Hamzaoui ◽  
J.M. Rodríguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Steam Turbine ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Turbine Blades ◽  
Probability Estimation ◽  
Steam Turbine Blades
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