scholarly journals Revised cloud processes to improve the mean and intraseasonal variability of I ndian summer monsoon in climate forecast system: Part 1

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1002-1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Abhik ◽  
R. P. M. Krishna ◽  
M. Mahakur ◽  
Malay Ganai ◽  
P. Mukhopadhyay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
System Part ◽  
The Mean

Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 1925-1947 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Chowdary ◽  
H. S. Chaudhari ◽  
C. Gnanaseelan ◽  
Anant Parekh ◽  
A. Suryachandra Rao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run

2013 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 1628-1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subodh K. Saha ◽  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari ◽  
Ashish Dhakate ◽  
Swati Shewale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

scholarly journals Improved Tropical Modes of Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (Version 2) via a Stochastic Multicloud Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (10) ◽  
pp. 3339-3366 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. B. Goswami ◽  
B. Khouider ◽  
R. Phani ◽  
P. Mukhopadhyay ◽  
A. J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Abstract A stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) convective parameterization, which mimics the interactions at subgrid scales of multiple cloud types, is incorporated into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), model (CFSsmcm) in lieu of the preexisting simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) cumulus scheme. A detailed analysis of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW) in comparison with the original (control) model and with observations is presented here. The last 10 years of a 15-yr-long climate simulation are analyzed. Significant improvements are seen in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and most of the CCEWs as well as the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). These improvements appear in the form of improved morphology and physical features of these waves. This can be regarded as a validation of the central idea behind the SMCM according to which organized tropical convection is based on three cloud types, namely, the congestus, deep, and stratiform cloud decks, that interact with each other and form a building block for multiscale convective systems. An adequate accounting of the dynamical interactions of this cloud hierarchy thus constitutes an important requirement for cumulus parameterizations to succeed in representing atmospheric tropical variability. SAS fails to fulfill this requirement, which is evident in the unrealistic physical structures of the major intraseasonal modes simulated by CFSv2 as documented here.

scholarly journals Impacts of Model Resolutions and Initial Conditions on Predictions of the Asian Summer Monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 629-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wen ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Augustin Vintzileos ◽  
Wayne Higgins ◽  
Renhe Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract A series of 60-day hindcasts by the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is analyzed to understand the impacts of atmospheric model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions of the Asian summer monsoon. The experiments, for the time period 2002–06 and with 14 ensemble members, are conducted at resolutions of T62, T126, and T254. They are initialized every 5 days from May to August, using the operational global atmospheric data assimilation system and operational global ocean data assimilation. It is found that, in predicting the magnitude and the timing of monsoon rainfall over lands, high model resolutions overall perform better than lower model resolutions. The increase in prediction skills with model resolution is more apparent over South Asia than over Southeast Asia. The largest improvement is seen over the Tibetan Plateau, at least for precipitation. However, the increase in model resolution does not enhance the skill of the predictions over oceans. Overall, model resolution has larger impacts than do the initial conditions on predicting the development of the Asian summer monsoon in the early season. However, higher model resolutions such as T382 may be needed for the CFS to simulate and predict many features of the monsoon more realistically.

Improvements in the representation of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2485-2498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo J. Bombardi ◽  
Edwin K. Schneider ◽  
Lawrence Marx ◽  
Subhadeep Halder ◽  
Bohar Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System
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