scholarly journals The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1037-1054 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. Strazzo ◽  
J. B. Elsner ◽  
T. E. LaRow ◽  
H. Murakami ◽  
M. Wehner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals The Roles of Wind Shear and Thermal Stratification in Past and Projected Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (17) ◽  
pp. 4723-4734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen T. Garner ◽  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Thomas Knutson ◽  
Joseph Sirutis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has trended upward in recent decades. The increase coincides with favorable changes in local sea surface temperature and other environmental indices, principally associated with vertical shear and the thermodynamic profile. The relative importance of these environmental factors has not been firmly established. A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work, this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms. Separate assessments are done for the recent multidecadal trend (1980–2006) and a model-projected global warming environment for the late 21st century. For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal-mean thermodynamic environment (sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile at fixed relative humidity) account for more than half of the observed increase in tropical cyclone frequency, with other seasonal-mean changes (including vertical shear) having a somewhat smaller combined effect. In contrast, the model’s projected reduction in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the warm climate scenario appears to be driven mostly by increased seasonal-mean vertical shear in the western Atlantic and Caribbean rather than by changes in the SST and thermodynamic profile.

scholarly journals Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting/forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. LaRow ◽  
Lydia Stefanova ◽  
Dong-Wook Shin ◽  
Steven Cocke
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate on Sea Surface Temperature, Storm Intensity, and Size in the Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 523-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Xu ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Outer Core ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Storm Intensity

Abstract This study extends the statistical analysis on the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate (IR) on sea surface temperature (SST), storm initial intensity (maximum sustained surface wind speed Vmax), and storm size, in terms of the radius of maximum wind (RMW), the radius of 34-kt (AR34; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) wind, and the outer-core wind skirt parameter DR34 (= AR34 − RMW), for North Atlantic TCs to western North Pacific (WNP) TCs during 1982–2015. Results show that the relationship between the TC maximum potential intensification rate (MPIR) and SST also exists in the WNP. TC IR depends strongly on TC intensity and structure, consistent with the findings for North Atlantic TCs. TC IR is positively (negatively) correlated with storm intensity when Vmax is below (above) 70 kt and negatively correlated with the RMW. Rapid intensification (RI) occurs only in a relatively narrow range of parameter space in storm intensity and both inner- and outer-core sizes, with the highest IR appearing for Vmax = 70 kt, RMW ≦ 40 km, AR34 = 150 km, and DR34 = 100 km. The highest frequency of occurrence of intensifying TCs occurs for Vmax ~ 40–60 kt, RMW ~ 20–60 km, AR34 = 200 km, and DR34 = 120 km. Overall, these values are very similar to those for TCs in the North Atlantic. These results suggest the need for the realistic initialization of TC structure in numerical models and the inclusion of size parameters in statistical TC intensity prediction schemes.

US Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Timothy M. Hall ◽  
James P. Kossin ◽  
Terence Thompson ◽  
James McMahon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Projected Changes

AbstractWe use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea-surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in US TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global-tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North-Atlantic (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as “relative SST.” Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical US TC activity, as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically-varied signal in US coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity, compared to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern US Gulf and the US East Coast will see little change.

scholarly journals A spatiotemporal reconstruction of sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic during Dansgaard–Oeschger events 5–8

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 901-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mari F. Jensen ◽  
Aleksi Nummelin ◽  
Søren B. Nielsen ◽  
Henrik Sadatzki ◽  
Evangeline Sessford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Reconstruction Method ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions

Abstract. Here, we establish a spatiotemporal evolution of the sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic over Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events 5–8 (approximately 30–40 kyr) using the proxy surrogate reconstruction method. Proxy data suggest a large variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures during the DO events of the last glacial period. However, proxy data availability is limited and cannot provide a full spatial picture of the oceanic changes. Therefore, we combine fully coupled, general circulation model simulations with planktic foraminifera based sea-surface temperature reconstructions to obtain a broader spatial picture of the ocean state during DO events 5–8. The resulting spatial sea-surface temperature patterns agree over a number of different general circulation models and simulations. We find that sea-surface temperature variability over the DO events is characterized by colder conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic during stadials than during interstadials, and the variability is linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation and in the sea-ice cover. Forced simulations are needed to capture the strength of the temperature variability and to reconstruct the variability in other climatic records not directly linked to the sea-surface temperature reconstructions. This is the first time the proxy surrogate reconstruction method has been applied to oceanic variability during MIS3. Our results remain robust, even when age uncertainties of proxy data, the number of available temperature reconstructions, and different climate models are considered. However, we also highlight shortcomings of the methodology that should be addressed in future implementations.

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